FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11 Monday Night
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Bookmakers currently have the Chiefs as 4.5-road favorites and the over/under set at a whopping 52.5 points. The over is holding 70% of the bets from the public, pointing towards a higher-scoring game, according to oddsFire.
Patrick Mahomes ($16,500) - It appears that a dislocated kneecap was only a minor setback for Mahomes, as he returned last week to post 446 yards and three touchdowns. The Chiefs have a very solid 28.50 implied team total, which should put them in a spot for multiple offensive touchdowns, likely coming from the arm of Mahomes. Over the past three weeks, the Chiefs only have two rushing touchdowns, and with Mahomes coming back last week, they appear to have shifted back to the passing game.
Mahomes comes in as our highest projected player in this game, set for 23.7 FanDuel points with the next player being at only 18.8 points. The highest projected player getting 1.5x points in the MVP makes things even juicier when it comes to your roster construction.
Tyreek Hill ($15,500) - Hill is one of the few players in the league who can truly break a slate on his own. He comes in with an aDOT (average depth of target) sitting at a massive 14.6 this season (highest on the Chiefs), along with a 49% market share of air yards, which is also the highest on the team. With Mahomes coming back last week, it's as if nothing changed in his two-game absence. Hill ended with 19 targets, 11 receptions, 157 yards, and a touchdown, all good for 27.5 FanDuel points.
Yet another player who can benefit immensely from the MVP spot, the Mahomes to Hill stack is super expensive but can be done in single-game formats.
Philip Rivers ($13,500) - If the Chargers are projected to be trailing in this game, they will need to turn to the passing game in order to catch up. This means more opportunities for Rivers to post fantasy points, thus making him a viable option for the MVP spot. Over his last five games, Rivers has thrown for multiple touchdowns three times, along with going for 294 yards or more in three of those games.
Even in a loss, Rivers is capable of posting strong fantasy points since the Chiefs are allowing 19.9 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks -- the 10th-most in the league. A 24.00 implied team total is strong for the Chargers and extra passing attempts versus a weak secondary can be valuable for Rivers tonight.
Mike Williams ($8,500) - To say Mike Williams has been a disappointment this season would be an understatement, as it's Week 11 and he has zero touchdowns. One of the biggest letdowns so far this season has a chance to turn that around this week against the Chiefs. Williams has 10 red zone targets this season -- tied for the second-highest on the team -- along with the third-highest targets overall. Despite his struggles, the Chargers are still giving him the targets and more importantly, giving him the targets in the most valuable portion of the field.
Austin Ekeler ($9,500) - Over the past three weeks, Ekeler has been out-snapped by Melvin Gordon in each game. Gordon has also out-touched Ekeler 46-to-24 in the last two games. So why would we lean towards Ekeler tonight? Leverage in tournaments. Gordon had a very rough start to his season, posting 10 or fewer FanDuel points in the first four games, but he's turned that around in these last two. If everyone is going to be on Gordon, you want to be on Ekeler at lower ownership to gain leverage.
The Chiefs' run defense is terrible this season -- allowing the second-most rushing yards -- but the game script doesn't set up for the Chargers to be in a spot to run it. If they are trailing, the passing game will come into play, which means more of Ekeler over Gordon. Targeting Ekeler has been very successful for the Chargers this year, as he has caught 59 of his 65 targets, per NFL Savant.
Demarcus Robinson ($7,000) - Robinson played on 67% of the offensive snaps last week -- the third-highest among Chiefs' wide receivers -- and is considerably mispriced this week. Last week, Mecole Hardman played on only 22% of the snaps and saw one target -- which he caught for a 63-yard touchdown.
Hardman could be one of the fastest players in the league, but he has a very, very limited role in the offense. Robinson played on 45% more snaps and saw four more targets than Hardman, yet he's $3k cheaper tonight.