NFL Weather Report: Week 11
In Week 10, we finally hit Weather Condition bingo. Heat, rain, and wind have impacted the main slate since Week 1 of the 2019 season. Some games feature just one type of weather condition. Others, not so much. Throughout it all, the winter months loomed over the regular season. Light snow fell on Lambeau Field last week, raising concern about the game environment, but, at least for this one-game sample, our fears were allayed.
The game total (40) in the Green Bay Packers-Carolina Panthers clash did fall short of the listed 49 points, but the volume for the skill positions was still there. Kyle Allen attempted 43 passes, a season high. His 8.4 yards per attempt in the first quarter (before the snow) was his highest mark since Week 3. The 19.0% drop to 6.8 yards per attempt thereafter was a function of the defense as well as the weather, but the Carolina’s 2.15 pass-to-run ratio was a near 10% increase on their season.
Conversely, Aaron Rodgers matched his season-low passing total, but he had his fourth-highest yards per attempt this season. Green Bay’s 52.7% pass rate deviated from the team’s 62.6% pass rate over their last three. However, the team captured and held the lead from the early second quarter. Their shift from a 1.5 to 1.05 pass-to-run clip matches their previous trends when playing in a positive game script.
Essentially, game script was the dominant factor over the snow. Again, we’re looking at a one-game sample.
With more games featuring similar conditions, it’s important to focus on the primary variables (skill players, offensive and defensive line play, and so on.) prior to downgrading assets. The extremes are what we’re looking for to determine game environments that will be impacted by the elements.
Let’s look into the upcoming games to identify any concerns in Week 11.
Below are the games with weather concerns headed into Week 11.
|Game||Temperature (Feels Like)||Chance of Precipitation||Wind|
|Texans at Ravens||36.3||8.80%||12 MPH NE|
|Jets at Washington||36||7.80%||11 MPH NNE|
|Patriots at Eagles||33||25.60%||13.2 MPH NNE|
Games Impacted by Snow
More snow is expected in Week 11, but the projected precipitation amount will likely be similar to what we saw in the aforementioned Green Bay-Carolina game a week ago. Showers aren’t expected until the evening, but a light dusting may occur during the game.
Tom Brady won’t mind.
Brady has averaged 22 fantasy points in games with light snow or light freezing rain. He’s met or exceeded his seasonal adjusted yards per attempt clips in 50% of them and thrown multiple touchdowns in 75% of those games. Now, to put it in context, nearly half of these opponents have been either the Miami Dolphins or New York Jets. Also, the games have been played in Week 13 and later -- so the opposition may have been removed from playoff contention. But, even with the matchup discount, we can project Brady to perform to expectations in Week 11.
The Eagles’ secondary is in the bottom half of the league for Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play through Week 10. Meanwhile, their defensive front sits ninth in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. Given Philadelphia’s lapses in the aerial game, expect the Patriots to attack the Eagles’ weakness regardless of the inclement weather forecasted for this contest.
Games Affected by Cold
As we discussed in Week 10, cold weather games incite concern for player production. Heavy run games or low-scoring affairs push fantasy managers to other options, but the results aren’t nearly as dire. As the data indicates, fantasy managers can use their normal start/sit process in cold weather games outside of extreme conditions.
A separate analysis on pass attempts paints a similar picture. Warm weather conditions have a higher probability of games with 40 pass attempts than their colder counterparts do. However, games featuring lower temperatures still have a high probability of seeing at least 30 to 35 attempts. So while there is an increased chance for limited passing in a game, the normal factors impacting any matchup should be considered when making lineup decisions before you use the cold as reason for making a roster call.