FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Afternoon-Slate Helper: Week 11
The Week 11 afternoon NFL DFS slate on FanDuel has just three matchups, which kick off between 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. EST. Every game has a total of at least 44.5 with solid fantasy options on all teams, so this should be a fun slate despite having just six teams to work with.
Our NFL DFS matchup heat map will be referenced for all implied totals and spreads throughout this article, so be sure to check it out.
Let’s check out the best plays at various prices on this short slate.
High Priced Studs
Josh Jacobs, RB, Oakland Raiders ($8,000)
Despite being just $8,000, Josh Jacobs is actually the most expensive player on the slate. It should be easy to pay up for him, as there aren't many other expensive options due to injuries. The Oakland Raiders are also 11.5-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals, which is always good for a starting running back at home.
Josh Jacobs turned this into a five-yard gain. pic.twitter.com/sTWQtwNKSM
— Dieter Kurtenbach (@dieter) November 8, 2019
Jacobs has averaged over 24 touches per game over his last six, which means he has a high floor and ceiling against a defense that ranks 29th in Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. Our projections have him with the most fantasy points and as the best value per dollar at running back on the slate.
Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots ($7,400)
The Philadelphia Eagles have improved on defense from health, but they still rank 21st in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. They have done a good job at limiting downfield plays, allowing an explosive pass on just eight percent of attempts, per Sharp Football Stats.
Luckily, that isn't Tom Brady's game, as his average pass attempt distance is the eighth-lowest out of 35 quarterbacks, according to PlayerProfiler. He likes finding his slot receivers underneath, which is perfect for Julian Edelman's outlook. The New England Patriots have a hard time running the football, ranking 23rd in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play, so expect Brady to carve them up on short routes instead of running Sony Michel into a brick wall 20 times.
Mid-Priced Upside Plays
Tevin Coleman, RB, San Francisco 49ers ($6,700)
With Matt Breida unlikely to suit up with an ankle injury, Tevin Coleman should be a workhorse with massive touchdown upside. Raheem Mostert would be his primary backup, but he hasn't seen double-digit touches since Week 3 and isn't active in the passing game. George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders are also unlikely to suit up, so the offense could easily run through Coleman in their absence.
Injury Updates from Kyle Shanahan:
Ronald Blair - ACL (will go on IR)
Matt Breida - Aggravated ankle (day to day)
DJ Jones - Groin (expected to miss a week)
Joe Staley - finger fracture (getting second opinion, could require surgery)
Emmanuel Sanders - Rib (day to day)#49ers
— Keiana Martin (@KeianaMartinTV) November 12, 2019
Tyrell Williams, WR, Oakland Raiders ($6,200)
The Bengals are weakest against the pass, while the Raiders rank second in Adjusted Passing NEP per play. While Jacobs is likely the go-to play from this offense, Tyrell Williams could put up some numbers in just three quarters.
The Gazelle is second to Darren Waller in target share, but he dominates the team's air yards at 37 percent. Meanwhile, Cincinnati ranks last in explosive pass plays allowed, so look for Williams to break off some long receptions in this premium matchup.
Darren Waller, TE, Oakland Raiders ($6,700)
After an incredible start to the season, Darren Waller has seen only seven targets and caught five balls over the last two weeks. Derek Carr has simply looked at other matchups, as Hunter Renfrow, Zay Jones, and Tyrell Williams have all matched or exceeded Waller's target total over that span.
Darren Waller after Week 7: pic.twitter.com/xwLGSiptUn
— MK11 (@MoodyKyrie) November 8, 2019
The positive is that Waller has been efficient, averaging 18.4 yards per reception on his five catches. While his floor is lower than we saw at the start of the season, Waller is still the best tight end on this tiny slate. Our projections have him with the most fantasy points at his position.
Bargain Bin Prospects
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,600)
The Patriots usually go into every matchup taking out their opponent's best weapon. That would mean extra attention for Zach Ertz here, leaving Stephon Gilmore in shadow coverage with Alshon Jeffery and single coverage everywhere else. This is where Miles Sanders should shine.
The dynamic rookie running back has been a force out of the backfield, and not just on screen passes. His average target depth of 6.0 yards is the highest among running backs with at least 15 looks, according to airyards.com. New England's starting linebacker core of Dont'a Hightower, Elandon Roberts, and Kyle Van Noy all run a 4.6 40-yard dash or worse, meaning Sanders and his 4.4-speed should burst right by them on wheels, seams, and choice routes.
Don’t take Miles Sanders off the field, not even if there’s a firepic.twitter.com/xY2IhllAh9
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 15, 2019
Plus, Jordan Howard still hasn't been cleared for contact after suffering a stinger, and Darren Sproles' season just ended due to a quad injury. Sanders could see his highest snap share of the season and flash his versatility.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,900)
If you're looking for cheap volume, look no further than Tyler Boyd. With no A.J. Green, our projections have Boyd seeing the most targets on the slate, making him our best value as well. The Bengals will be facing negative game script throughout the contest, so expect more opportunities for the slot maven.
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers ($5,600)
With the 49ers strapped for playmakers, they'll be thankful that their rookie receiver, Deebo Samuel, broke out against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 10. The South Carolina product racked up 112 yards on 8 receptions after Emmanuel Sanders left early.
He should be able to continue that success against the Cardinals, who rank 29th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play and could be without Patrick Peterson. That would matchup Samuel with Byron Murphy, who has struggled in coverage in his rookie season.
Jonathan Taylor Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice Jonathan Taylor Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jtsmittyyy. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.