Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 11
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
25+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $8,800 | 24.0 | 39.8% | 2.04 | 46.4% | 29.4 |
| Deshaun Watson | $8,200 | 21.2 | 30.7% | 1.08 | 29.0% | 26.1 |
| Dak Prescott | $8,100 | 20.4 | 29.0% | 0.96 | 25.8% | 25.3 |
| Drew Brees | $8,300 | 19.8 | 23.5% | 0.67 | 23.5% | 24.6 |
| Josh Allen | $7,800 | 19.2 | 30.2% | 0.97 | 22.9% | 24.5 |
| Jameis Winston | $7,600 | 18.8 | 32.1% | 1.10 | 23.1% | 24.4 |
| Derek Carr | $7,400 | 18.6 | 32.6% | 1.02 | 19.6% | 23.9 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $8,000 | 18.0 | 20.1% | 0.50 | 16.7% | 22.3 |
| Tom Brady | $7,800 | 18.0 | 25.4% | 0.72 | 18.4% | 23.5 |
| Matt Ryan | $7,600 | 17.9 | 25.4% | 0.69 | 16.7% | 23.0 |
| Kyle Allen | $7,200 | 17.5 | 28.3% | 0.87 | 15.7% | 22.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,700 | 16.9 | 18.9% | 0.44 | 13.1% | 21.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $7,500 | 16.8 | 20.5% | 0.50 | 11.4% | 21.5 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,600 | 16.7 | 20.2% | 0.49 | 13.4% | 21.4 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,000 | 15.9 | 24.3% | 0.58 | 12.1% | 20.8 |
| Nick Foles | $7,000 | 15.6 | 24.2% | 0.56 | 10.4% | 20.7 |
| Ryan Finley | $6,300 | 15.1 | 29.3% | 0.79 | 8.4% | 20.0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7,100 | 14.5 | 19.3% | 0.43 | 9.5% | 19.5 |
| Sam Darnold | $7,300 | 13.9 | 12.3% | 0.24 | 6.1% | 18.9 |
| Dwayne Haskins Jr. | $6,500 | 13.2 | 19.2% | 0.39 | 4.8% | 17.8 |
| Jeff Driskel | $6,700 | 12.8 | 13.1% | 0.24 | 3.4% | 17.4 |
| Brandon Allen | $6,800 | 12.6 | 15.2% | 0.29 | 3.5% | 17.5 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Lamar Jackson ($8,800) -- despite his price -- is the top option in boom-to-bust ratio in the projections. He also rates out with the best median value of any quarterback. Jackson -- easily -- is a justifiable cash-game option, though his price does make him hard to roster if you're also spending up at running back (or receiver) in cash games. The simulation loves him in a shootout.
Up next are Jameis Winston ($7,600), Deshaun Watson ($8,200), Derek Carr ($7,400), Josh Allen ($7,800), and Dak Prescott ($8,100) before a drop off to Kyle Allen ($7,200). When trying to jam in three expensive running backs, I'm landing often on Carr in a home matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Tournament Standouts
Jackson has the best value rating when looking at his 75th-percentile outcome (29.4 FanDuel points). Carr, Winston, Watson, and Ryan Finley ($6,300) are close behind.
A lot of quarterbacks have 20-plus FanDuel points in their realistic range of outcomes (17 of them get there in a 75th-percentile performance), and this week, we have a lot of tournament-viable quarterbacks relative to their prices.
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 20+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $10,500 | 24.0 | 23.3% | 0.63 | 66.2% | 30.9 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,600 | 20.7 | 31.9% | 0.91 | 53.9% | 27.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | $8,000 | 18.1 | 25.5% | 0.65 | 41.3% | 24.1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,400 | 18.0 | 22.8% | 0.52 | 41.1% | 24.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,800 | 17.2 | 21.2% | 0.47 | 35.5% | 22.5 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,200 | 17.2 | 29.2% | 0.76 | 35.2% | 22.9 |
| Le'Veon Bell | $7,400 | 15.0 | 19.2% | 0.40 | 29.9% | 20.8 |
| Tevin Coleman | $6,700 | 14.3 | 24.2% | 0.55 | 24.6% | 19.8 |
| Brian Hill | $5,900 | 13.4 | 29.9% | 0.73 | 19.5% | 18.7 |
| Marlon Mack | $7,300 | 13.0 | 13.3% | 0.24 | 17.6% | 18.1 |
| Devin Singletary | $6,500 | 12.1 | 15.0% | 0.28 | 12.7% | 16.7 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,600 | 12.1 | 15.9% | 0.29 | 15.1% | 17.3 |
| Mark Ingram II | $7,500 | 11.4 | 6.4% | 0.09 | 11.1% | 16.2 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,600 | 10.6 | 6.7% | 0.10 | 6.0% | 14.7 |
| James White | $6,100 | 10.5 | 10.3% | 0.17 | 5.6% | 14.3 |
| Kalen Ballage | $5,300 | 10.3 | 17.1% | 0.33 | 5.0% | 14.3 |
| Ronald Jones II | $6,400 | 10.0 | 6.5% | 0.10 | 4.3% | 14.3 |
| Carlos Hyde | $6,300 | 9.7 | 6.2% | 0.09 | 4.1% | 13.5 |
| Jordan Howard | $6,100 | 9.5 | 7.8% | 0.12 | 4.5% | 13.8 |
| Sony Michel | $6,300 | 9.5 | 6.7% | 0.10 | 4.2% | 13.9 |
| Kenyan Drake | $6,300 | 9.1 | 4.8% | 0.07 | 3.0% | 13.4 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,600 | 8.5 | 7.8% | 0.12 | 2.6% | 12.5 |
| J.D. McKissic | $5,800 | 8.5 | 6.7% | 0.10 | 2.6% | 12.6 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,800 | 8.3 | 5.7% | 0.08 | 1.9% | 12.4 |
| David Johnson | $6,200 | 8.1 | 4.3% | 0.06 | 2.7% | 12.3 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,900 | 8.1 | 4.4% | 0.06 | 1.6% | 11.9 |
| Adrian Peterson | $6,300 | 8.0 | 3.0% | 0.04 | 2.1% | 11.7 |
| Miles Sanders | $5,600 | 8.0 | 4.7% | 0.06 | 1.1% | 11.6 |
| Derrius Guice | $4,700 | 7.6 | 18.0% | 0.31 | 3.4% | 12.3 |
| Raheem Mostert | $4,600 | 7.4 | 15.7% | 0.26 | 2.4% | 12.0 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Dalvin Cook ($8,600) has the best odds of paying off his salary relative to bust games, based on the simulations. At just $8,600 and as a double-digit home favorite, it's hard to leave Cook off your cash-game roster. Then it's a tight four behind Cook: Leonard Fournette ($7,200), Brian Hill ($5,900), Josh Jacobs ($8,000), and Christian McCaffrey ($10,500), and. Again, these are price-dependent metrics looking at boom-or-bust games.
Fournette sees as many opportunities per game as Dalvin Cook, Jacobs is a double-digit home favorite against the Bengals, Brian Hill could (and should) be a workhorse back for the Atlanta Falcons against the NFL's worst rush defense, and Christian McCaffrey is Christian McCaffrey. Tevin Coleman ($6,700) also should be in your consideration set.
Tournament Standouts
The most likely backs to hit 20 FanDuel points are: McCaffrey (66.2%), Cook (53.9%), Jacobs (41.3%), Ezekiel Elliott ($8,400; 41.1%), Alvin Kamara ($7,800; 35.5%), and Fournette (35.2%).
The top 10 in 75th-percentile value are Cook, Fournette, Hill, Jacobs, Coleman, McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott, Le'Veon Bell ($7,400), and Kalen Ballage ($5,300).
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 15+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | $9,000 | 19.6 | 57.4% | 2.69 | 72.5% | 25.2 |
| Julio Jones | $7,800 | 15.6 | 51.9% | 1.86 | 55.2% | 20.6 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,300 | 15.1 | 41.9% | 1.11 | 48.7% | 20.2 |
| Mike Evans | $8,200 | 15.0 | 41.6% | 1.23 | 49.7% | 19.9 |
| Amari Cooper | $8,100 | 14.5 | 42.7% | 1.19 | 49.5% | 19.6 |
| Julian Edelman | $7,400 | 13.9 | 45.3% | 1.33 | 44.7% | 18.2 |
| Chris Godwin | $8,000 | 13.8 | 36.3% | 0.89 | 40.7% | 18.4 |
| DJ Moore | $6,000 | 13.3 | 58.2% | 2.44 | 40.5% | 17.7 |
| Stefon Diggs | $7,300 | 12.4 | 35.3% | 0.81 | 32.7% | 16.8 |
| Kenny Golladay | $7,600 | 11.9 | 33.7% | 0.75 | 35.1% | 16.6 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $6,000 | 11.7 | 48.3% | 1.48 | 27.9% | 15.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,600 | 11.5 | 37.1% | 0.89 | 28.9% | 15.6 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,900 | 11.3 | 42.0% | 1.13 | 25.2% | 15.0 |
| John Brown | $5,900 | 11.2 | 47.9% | 1.42 | 27.9% | 15.5 |
| Curtis Samuel | $6,300 | 11.1 | 40.5% | 1.06 | 26.3% | 15.3 |
| Calvin Ridley | $5,500 | 10.9 | 50.6% | 1.46 | 24.8% | 15.0 |
| Tyrell Williams | $6,200 | 10.7 | 40.1% | 0.97 | 25.2% | 15.0 |
| Terry McLaurin | $5,500 | 10.7 | 46.3% | 1.34 | 22.9% | 14.6 |
| Michael Gallup | $6,700 | 10.5 | 29.2% | 0.61 | 19.9% | 14.1 |
| Christian Kirk | $6,200 | 10.5 | 37.6% | 0.88 | 24.1% | 14.8 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | $6,600 | 10.5 | 33.0% | 0.70 | 24.2% | 14.9 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $6,900 | 10.4 | 24.1% | 0.50 | 16.1% | 13.7 |
| DeVante Parker | $5,600 | 9.9 | 41.9% | 1.04 | 21.0% | 14.0 |
| Jamison Crowder | $6,500 | 9.8 | 27.4% | 0.57 | 16.1% | 13.4 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $5,800 | 9.8 | 37.5% | 0.92 | 18.6% | 13.6 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,600 | 9.4 | 34.8% | 0.81 | 10.4% | 12.5 |
| Will Fuller V | $6,300 | 9.4 | 28.7% | 0.57 | 15.9% | 13.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | $5,600 | 9.3 | 38.8% | 0.92 | 16.4% | 13.3 |
| Auden Tate | $5,300 | 8.7 | 36.6% | 0.81 | 12.4% | 12.4 |
| Zach Pascal | $6,200 | 8.6 | 25.9% | 0.48 | 14.7% | 12.5 |
| Alshon Jeffery | $6,200 | 8.4 | 20.9% | 0.36 | 6.4% | 11.7 |
| Randall Cobb | $5,400 | 8.4 | 36.0% | 0.77 | 12.1% | 12.2 |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,400 | 8.4 | 28.7% | 0.60 | 7.1% | 11.5 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,500 | 8.4 | 28.5% | 0.57 | 7.9% | 11.6 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,400 | 8.1 | 32.6% | 0.70 | 9.1% | 11.9 |
| Demaryius Thomas | $5,200 | 7.9 | 29.6% | 0.58 | 8.8% | 11.2 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,700 | 7.8 | 24.9% | 0.44 | 9.4% | 11.4 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,000 | 7.6 | 7.3% | 0.10 | 4.6% | 10.4 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,400 | 7.6 | 26.9% | 0.49 | 7.0% | 11.2 |
| Danny Amendola | $5,400 | 7.5 | 22.7% | 0.40 | 4.8% | 10.5 |
| Phillip Dorsett II | $5,300 | 7.3 | 22.4% | 0.41 | 5.3% | 10.3 |
| Kenny Stills | $5,500 | 7.0 | 22.5% | 0.39 | 6.4% | 10.6 |
| Chris Conley | $5,500 | 7.0 | 21.3% | 0.36 | 5.9% | 10.5 |
| Russell Gage | $5,300 | 6.7 | 19.8% | 0.32 | 3.5% | 10.0 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Amazingly, Michael Thomas ($9,000) rates out as the best boom-to-bust play despite a huge price tag. He leads the NFL in target share and is in a possible shootout.
D.J. Moore ($6,000), Julio Jones ($7,800), D.J. Chark ($6,000), Calvin Ridley ($5,500), and John Brown ($5,900) are next on the list. I'd be fine with any of them in cash-game builds, frankly, and will likely have some combination of the three in my primary lineup.
Tournament Standouts
The best raw 75th-percentile scores belong to Michael Thomas (25.2), Julio Jones (20.6), DeAndre Hopkins ($8,300; 20.2), Mike Evans ($8,200; 19.9), Amari Cooper ($8,100; 19.6), and Chris Godwin ($8,000; 18.4). They're pretty much all in great spots, and spending up at receiver is a good way to differentiate lineup construction on FanDuel for tournaments.
The most likely receivers -- below $7,000 -- to hit 15 FanDuel points are Moore (40.5%), Courtland Sutton ($6,600; 28.9%), Chark (27.9%), John Brown (27.9%), Curtis Samuel ($6,300; 26.3%), Tyrell Williams ($6,200; 25.2%), and Tyler Boyd ($5,900; 25.2%).
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % | Boom/Bust Ratio | 15+ FDP % | 75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | $6,700 | 11.6 | 37.1% | 0.86 | 27.0% | 15.4 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,900 | 11.2 | 35.4% | 0.79 | 29.0% | 15.8 |
| Zach Ertz | $6,200 | 10.0 | 33.8% | 0.75 | 20.5% | 14.0 |
| George Kittle | $7,500 | 9.8 | 15.0% | 0.23 | 15.0% | 13.0 |
| Greg Olsen | $5,100 | 8.5 | 37.5% | 0.87 | 11.5% | 12.1 |
| Jared Cook | $6,000 | 8.3 | 21.6% | 0.39 | 7.4% | 11.6 |
| Eric Ebron | $5,200 | 7.7 | 28.4% | 0.54 | 6.5% | 10.9 |
| Jack Doyle | $5,400 | 7.4 | 22.9% | 0.39 | 5.1% | 10.4 |
| Jason Witten | $5,600 | 6.9 | 18.7% | 0.31 | 4.0% | 10.0 |
| Noah Fant | $5,100 | 6.7 | 24.1% | 0.41 | 4.1% | 10.0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $4,500 | 6.6 | 30.4% | 0.60 | 3.8% | 9.6 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,100 | 6.5 | 24.4% | 0.42 | 5.2% | 10.1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,300 | 6.4 | 17.5% | 0.27 | 3.0% | 9.6 |
| O.J. Howard | $5,300 | 6.2 | 15.9% | 0.24 | 2.8% | 9.1 |
| Tyler Eifert | $5,000 | 5.9 | 17.1% | 0.27 | 1.9% | 8.8 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | $4,700 | 5.9 | 23.4% | 0.40 | 1.6% | 9.2 |
| Darren Fells | $5,100 | 5.9 | 14.9% | 0.22 | 2.0% | 8.6 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,000 | 5.8 | 17.5% | 0.27 | 2.5% | 8.7 |
| Nick Boyle | $4,900 | 5.1 | 13.9% | 0.20 | 1.3% | 8.0 |
| Dawson Knox | $4,500 | 4.9 | 18.1% | 0.28 | 1.0% | 8.0 |
Cash-Game Standouts
It's actually Greg Olsen ($5,100) who is most likely to return a good game relative to a bad game at his salary this week, narrowly edging out Darren Waller ($6,700). Mark Andrews ($6,900) and Zach Ertz ($6,200) are the next tier down. The simulations also don't hate Kyle Rudolph ($5,000) as a punt play, assuming Adam Thielen misses again. Eric Ebron ($5,200) also rates out well, but it does sound like Jack Doyle ($5,400) will play.
Tournament Standouts
The five tight ends who returned 15 FanDuel points in at least 10% of simulated games isn't surprising: Andrews (29.0%), Waller (27.0%), Ertz (20.5%), George Kittle ($7,500; 15.0%), and Olsen (11.5%).
Rudolph, Ebron, Michael Gesicki ($5,100), Noah Fant ($5,100), and Irv Smith Jr. ($4,700) also show some pop relative to their prices.
