The 3 Most Popular NFL Bets for Week 11
In Week 10, the majority of bettors went 1-2 on their picks. While Buffalo fell to Cleveland and Kansas City failed to cover in a loss to Tennessee, San Francisco and Seattle surpassed the over/under in a classic overtime game.
This Sunday and Monday provide plenty more opportunities to get in on the action at FanDuel Sportsbook. On tap are another 13 games, which include three with double-digit spreads and a total of five with an over/under of seven combined touchdowns or higher.
But which games and lines are getting the most action? Thanks to numberFire's new oddsFire tool, we can see exactly that -- where the public is laying the most bets, and what percentage of money is on which team and which side of the total.
Using oddsFire as our guide, let's dive into the three lines (one spread, one moneyline, one over/under) getting the most love, with the goal of deciding whether the numbers support or contradict the public's heavy investment.
The 5-4 Dallas Cowboys are fresh off a loss, but nonetheless they are favored on the road against the three-win Detroit Lions. And that's after opening as 3.5-point favorites, according to oddsFire. At other books, however, Dak Prescott and company are five-point favorites.
By many accounts, Prescott has been one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL -- if not the best -- ranking fifth in adjusted net yards per attempt (8.02) and first in QBR (82.10). Lucky him, he gets to square up against Jeff Driskel, who will likely be starting his second straight game in place of the injured Matthew Stafford. In his first start, Driskel was adequate in a close loss against a tough Chicago Bears defense. Dallas' defense spots up a whole 16 spots lower in our power rankings than the Bears do.
After failing to cover the 6.5 points last week, the Lions are now 4-5 against the spread this year, according to Killer Sports. They've lost by an average of 2.2 points per game, and they have lost three of their last four, having failed to cover in any one of them. When getting at least 3.5 points, they are 3-1 versus the spread and 7-6 going back to last year.
On the year, Dallas is 5-4 against the spread and 4-2 when favored by more than a field goal. They've covered in two of their three road games when they've been laying 3.5 or more.
There's no reason to doubt the Cowboys here. Driskel is an unproven commodity while Prescott and the Dallas weapons are dealing. That should instill confidence in the 95% of bettors putting their money behind America's Team.
In quite the odd turn of events, the New York Jets have worked their way from -101 at the open to the clear underdogs on the road against Washington (-130 on the moneyline). That's in spite of rookie Dwayne Haskins getting the start and -- at least so far -- looking all the part of a rookie signal caller.
At this point, 88% of bets and 79% of the money are on Sam Darnold, Le'Veon Bell and the Jets to get it done on the road. The public is taking the bait on the value, but there are reasons to be concerned. Bell is dinged up with a rib injury, and the Jets have managed only two wins to begin with.
The Jets' front office seems to be backing Adam Gase, but before besting the New York Giants last week, they lost three straight, including an eight-point loss to the Dolphins on the road. New York was a three-point favorite in that game.
As road 'dogs, the Jets are 0-3 with an average margin of 18.3 in their opponents' favor. They haven't lost by fewer than two touchdowns in those games.
Now, Washington is a bad team, too, but they are two spots ahead of the Jets by our metrics. Plus, they are 2-1 against the spread in their last three. They've even won the only game they have been favored in this season. Don't count them out at home.
This doesn't mean you should steer clear of the Jets' moneyline at favorable odds, however. The fact that the line has moved opposite of the public could speak to sharp money on Washington. Bettors beware.
Unlike the above matchups, this one features two of the league's top quarterbacks in Houston's Deshaun Watson and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson. The two are at the head of the league's eighth- and first-ranked scoring offenses, averaging 59.7 points between them.
Naturally, the public is hoping that Watson and Jackson can fit the bill in a high-scoring, offensively charged game in Baltimore. A whopping 92% of bets -- but even more of the money (96%) -- are on the over here. Things seem a bit off, though.
This game opened up shop at 50.0 points on the nose, and at this point, the under (-115) has moved into favored territory. The line ranges from 49.5 to 52.5 at books not named FanDuel Sportsbook, speaking to the unpredictability of this very intriguing game.
That is summarized succinctly by the disparity in pace. While Houston ranks 11th at 30.03 seconds per play, Baltimore is 24th at 31.75, according to Football Outsiders.
As for this year's trends, Houston has had the over hit on only three occasions this season, but in each they have managed to out-score an over/under of 47 or more. Baltimore and their dynamic offense have led to a 6-3 record in the over's favor, while them and their opponents average 54.3 points between them. In their four games with at least a 47-point total, the over is 2-2, including a 61-point game that went beyond the 54.5 over/under.
No one can fault the majority for liking the over, but it's closer to a 50-50 shot than a complete certainty.