3 Daily Fantasy Football Players to Avoid in Week 11
We have loads of pieces on numberFire dedicated to helping you figure out which plays you should target in your daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel and DraftKings. And you should definitely check them all out!
But an underrated aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play. Narrowing down your shortlist of potential plays by avoiding those who are overpriced and/or in tough matchups goes a long way towards ensuring that you create optimal lineups.
Let's go through three guys to consider fading on this week's DFS main slates.
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $7,600
DraftKings Price: $6,500
Make no bones about it -- Jameis Winston has been absolutely ballin' out in recent weeks. He's gone for 20-plus points in three consecutive weeks, and he makes for a reasonable play at an affordable price point.
Want more reasons to be worried? The New Orleans pass rush clocks in eighth in adjusted sack rate against a Tampa offensive line that has allowed 34 sacks and ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate.
From an efficiency perspective, Winston has been merely average with a mark of 0.05 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price: $7,800
DraftKings Price: $7,400
When there's clearly points to be had -- and the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look primed for a scoring burst with an over/under of 52.0 points -- it would make logical sense to roster a guy like Alvin Kamara.
But here's the scary secret about the Bucs defense -- while horrendous against the pass, they've been the league's best against the run, at least per our per-play metrics.
Kamara may do work via the air, but it's unlikely on the ground. Steer clear of the running back.
Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals
FanDuel Price: $6,200
DraftKings Price: $5,700
It's easy to get sucked into rostering a player like Christian Kirk -- especially when they went ham the week before with 138 receiving yards and three scores just a week ago.
And there's everything to like about this Arizona Cardinals offense -- they work incredibly fast, ranking in the top-10 in every pace statistic, including a league-best in standard and situation-neutral pace.
They love to throw the football -- they sport a 1.67 pass-to-run ratio, which ranks ninth-best in the league.
This isn't an ordinary week, though -- they face a San Francisco 49ers defense that ranks as the league's best and second-best against the pass. They've allowed the least fantasy points to the quarterback position this season (13.6 points-per-game).
Don't fall into the trap of playing the Cardinals wideout.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.