4 NFL DraftKings Studs to Target in Week 11
Week 11 of the NFL season is here, so let's see which high-priced studs stand out on DraftKings and project to be high-end performers, according to our models.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
DraftKings Price: $6,900
Projected Points: 19.3
Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints ran extremely bad last week, only scoring nine points against Atlanta. Now we get another chance where the Saints are implied to score 27.5 points in a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the highest total of the week.
In the three full games that Brees has played this season, he has attempted 43 or more pass attempts in each, something he only did twice in 15 regular season games a year ago. That type of passing volume should continue again this week, as well as a good chance in efficiency improvement against the Bucs.
Tampa Bay is one of the most pass funnel defenses in the NFL. They rank 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play while ranking 1st in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 311.8 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game against the Buccaneers.
Brees has a chance to be lower owned coming off a bad week, but this spot might actually be better. He has a good chance to compete for the top scoring quarterback in Week 11.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings Price: $8,900
Projected Points: 28.1
We usually input Christian McCaffrey into this slot on a weekly basis, but Dalvin Cook has a dreamy spot this week against the Denver Broncos.
The Minnesota Vikings are 10.5-point home favorites, which bodes well for Cook's scoring chances. He has had elite usage all season long, averaging 24.3 touches and seeing a 16.8% target share. Cook has found the end zone in 80% of the games played and currently ranks first in NEP amongst all running backs. Minnesota has been a home favorite of more than a touchdown twice this season, and Cook has scored 27.3 and 28.1 DraftKings points in those games.
The Broncos has been solid against the run, but Cook has shown the volume can trump the matchup. Denver is also starting a sixth-round rooking quarterback, which should help the Vikings play with a lead and give Cook ample opportunities to rack up fantasy points. The Broncos are tied for giving up the sixth-most receptions to opposing running backs, another area where Cook can take advantage.
At the $1,600 discount, Cook has a strong argument as the top running back play on DraftKings.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
DraftKings Price: $9,900
Projected Points: 27.2
DraftKings gave Michael Thomas a $1,600 increase, but even that might not be enough in this spot against Tampa Bay. Per Adam Levitan, the price tag for Thomas this week is the second highest ever for a wide receiver.
Thomas has now had 10 or more receptions in more than half of the Saints' games this season and is averaging 9.6 on the season. He owns a 30.8% target share and is tied for the third-most red zone targets (13). He ranks first in Target NEP amongst all wide receivers so far this season.
Basically, this guy is a machine who is averaging 25.2 DraftKings points. The numberFire projection model has him outscoring all quarterbacks and skill position players this week besides McCaffrey and Cook.
We already touched on the fact that the Buccaneers own the best run defense, and the path of success for opposing teams is through the air against them. They have given up massive stat lines to opposing wide receivers: Christian Kirk (6/138/2), Tyler Lockett (13/152/2), Cooper Kupp (9/121/1), Sterling Shepard (7/100/1) and oh, by the way, Thomas lit them up for 44.2 DraftKings points himself back in Week 5.
Thomas is projected to be the top scoring wideout this week by 7.2 points, making him head and shoulders the top stud to pay up for.
Darren Waller, TE, Oakland Raiders
DraftKings Price: $5,500
Projected Points: 12.9
Tight end continues to be the ugliest position on a weekly basis, and a key part of being successful in picking the right one is not to dwell on recent game logs. Darren Waller has had a couple poor games in a row, and his volume has slipped as the Oakland Raiders have been running the ball a lot more over the last two games.
Last week in this article, we called the bounce back for Mark Andrews against the Cincinnati Bengals after two poor weeks, and now its Waller's time in that same matchup. With Oakland owning the highest team implied total of the week at 29.5, Waller has the second-highest tight end touchdown probability in our models behind Andrews. Waller ranks fourth in Reception NEP amongst all tight ends and still owns a 22.9% target share.
As we stated last week, the Bengals have not faced off against many teams that utilize the tight end position often besides the Baltimore Ravens, and Andrews averaged 19.1 DraftKings points in his two games against them. Waller is a prime bounce back candidate this week, and with low ownership makes for a good spend at the tight end position.
Adam Nessel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Adam Nessel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ANessel01. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
