Daily Fantasy Football Quarterback Primer: Week 11
Welcome to another edition of my weekly NFL DFS quarterback primer article. Each week I will be looking to find an edge at the quarterback position for daily fantasy football contests.
In this weekly column, you will find the best value quarterbacks for tournaments and head-to-head cash games. Additionally, I will highlight one or two quarterbacks to avoid in the upcoming week.
Last week was one of the best weeks of the season for this column. Three of the four players recommended finished inside the top-4 at the position in Week 10. If you stacked Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes last week, you likely won some money. Ryan Tannehill proved us wrong with another decent performance last week, but he once again showed he does not have the upside necessary to trust him in tournaments.
Without further ado, let's dig in for Week 11.
Best Overall Play of the Week
Dak Prescott ($8,100) -- Dak gets a road matchup with the Detroit Lions, who rank as the 17th-worst passing defense according to our power rankings. The Lions have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season. They have allowed at least 18 points to all but one quarterback this season. We can expect an 18-point floor for Prescott in Week 11. In a game with the second-highest over/under on the main slate, Prescott also has mouth-watering upside. Prescott has thrown three touchdowns in each of his last two games, while the Lions have allowed three or more touchdown passes in three of their last four contests. The high upside combined with a safe floor makes Dak a great option in both cash and tournaments. Prescott is the top value quarterback of the week, according to our projections.
Deshaun Watson ($8,200) -- There are a lot of reasons to love Watson in Week 11. He is playing on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in a game with the highest over/under of the week. Watson has had one of the highest ceilings at the position so far this season, topping 20 FanDuel points in over half of his games. The Houston Texans are also expecting their number two receiver, Will Fuller, to return from injury this week. Watson has averaged nearly 40 more passing yards per game this season with Fuller in the lineup. Despite going up against the 11th-best passing defense in the league according to our power rankings, Watson is still projected for the second-most fantasy points at the position in Week 11. Our models have him as the third-best value play of the week among quarterbacks.
Lamar Jackson ($8,800) -- Jackson is currently on pace to break the single-season fantasy points scored record, which was set by Patrick Mahomes last season. Let that sink in. We have been riding Jackson in cash all season and, even with the slight $200 increase in price, we need to stick with him in Week 11. Jackson has the safest floor in fantasy football due to his rushing ability. He is on pace to break Michael Vick's single-season rushing record for a quarterback in Week 14. Our models have Jackson projected for a conservative 48 rushing yards, while his season average is 78 rushing yards per game. Jackson is once again the top value play at the position, despite being the most expensive quarterback on the slate. Fire him up with confidence in a game with the highest over/under of the week.
Josh Allen ($7,800) -- Allen gets a matchup with the Miami Dolphins this week, who have the third-worst passing defense according to our power rankings. Allen has not had any game with over 26 fantasy points so far this season, which makes him hard to trust in tournaments. He has, however, had one of the safest floors at the position, scoring above 15 fantasy points in all but one of his contests this year. Allen scored 21 FanDuel points when these two teams played in Week 7. Our models have Allen projected for the second-most rushing yards this week at the position. He is the fourth-best value play, and one of the safest options of the week according to our projections.
Quarterback to Avoid
Kyler Murray ($7,600) -- Murray has been a frequent name suggested in this column so far this season. However, there is reason for concern for the rookie signal-caller in Week 11. Murray will be playing on the road against the San Francisco 49ers, who have the second-best pass defense in the league according to our power rankings. Only one quarterback this season has scored over 20 FanDuel points against the 49ers stout defense, and that was actually Murray himself only two weeks ago when these two teams played in Arizona. We can expect Murray's ceiling to be his performance in that game, which was enough to get by in cash, but would not have helped you win any tournaments. Murray's floor, however, is the reason to fade him in Week 11. Over 50% of quarterbacks have scored below 10 points in their matchup with the 49ers. Our models seem a bit too optimistic, projecting the first-overall pick of this year's draft for 18.2 fantasy points this week. We should be looking elsewhere in Week 11.
Samuel Factor is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Samuel Factor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Samfact2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.