Fantasy Football: 4 Players You Can Drop After Week 10
All Monday Night Football games should be like last night.
The playoff implications. The number of fantasy relevant players. The extended time for players to accumulate points. Last night's game had it all -- even down to the kickers scoring double-digit fantasy points.
Punctuating the fantasy week in that fashion propels us into Week 11 as the bye week fervor starts to fade. We only have four teams on bye this week, but roster decisions become even more important as the fantasy playoffs get closer. Let's dive into last week's drop candidates, and then get into the latest snaps, targets, and touch data to identify who we can drop as we get into Week 11
Week 10 Review
Our previous drop candidates included:
Gardner Minshew -- No sooner had we listed Minshew as a drop candidate and head coach Doug Marrone had announced Nick Foles would be the starter shortly after the team returned from London. The mustaches go back in the crates for now as the sixth-round rookie goes to the bench. His 16.8 fantasy points per game was 18th in the league, but his recent poor performances opened the door for Foles to take the gig. Unless another injury occurs, Minshew should be left on the wire.
Peyton Barber -- Again, depending on when you saw Week 10’s list, the recommendations may have appeared obvious. Barber’s workload shift was a major red flag, and head coach Bruce Arians confirmed our suspicions. Ronald Jones was named the starter and went on to rack up 106 scrimmage yards last week. Barber did see 34.3% of the backfield touches and scored a touchdown, but his limited workload should negate any positive expectations moving forward.
Ty Johnson -- The rookie’s only start ended with five carries, one target, and a concussion. J.D. McKissic immediately replaced Johnson, but his day wasn’t any better (55 total yards). Workload continues to be an issue, but the larger issue is the Detroit Lions' quarterback. Matthew Stafford is uncertain for Week 11 with a back injury that could sideline him for multiple weeks. With uncertainty throughout the offense, Johnson’s value dips below the range of necessity for holding him on your roster.
Mitchell Trubisky – Trubisky had nine passing yards by the end of the first quarter against a team that was eighth worst in Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. He managed 3 passing touchdowns, but threw for less than 200 yards for the third time this season. The Los Angeles Rams are a better defense than Detroit, and there should be other quarterback options available on the waiver wire in Week 11.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Yahoo! Ownership: 79%
After suffering his second concussion of the season, Brandin Cooks met with a specialist regarding any extended recovery time required for the wide receiver. The meeting was reportedly positive, but head coach Sean McVay has already ruled Cooks out for their Week 11 matchup against the Chicago Bears.
Cooks’ 14.0 average depth of target conflicts with how the team has been forced to operate. Jared Goff has attempted the 14th-fewest passes of this depth as he’s been pressured on nearly a quarter of his drop backs. With no timetable and an ailing offense, Cooks may be a casualty of fantasy roster turnover with the playoffs approaching.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers
Yahoo! Ownership: 64%
The tight end landscape always turns into a barren wasteland, but we’d at least like some upside with our starters. Or, even better, we’d like some targets.
Jimmy Graham has fallen to the third, fourth, or even fifth option in multiple games this season. His 13.2% target share is fourth on the team with Allen Lazard emerging as the number-two wideout and both running backs being active in the passing game. Graham’s 13 targets over their last three games are 19th in the league at tight end, matching Tyler Eifert, Jack Doyle, and Noah Fant. Two of those guys had a bye over the same time period, making Graham’s targets per game look even worse.
Graham's name value may be diminishing with his on-field production as streaming options should be considered ahead of Graham moving forward.
Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets
Yahoo! Ownership: 63%
If 31-year-old Demaryius Thomas is receiving more targets than you, there may be a problem.
Robby Anderson has had fewer targets than the veteran coming off an Achilles’ injury in two of the last four games. The other two had only a single-target differential. It’s not necessarily due to a drop in skill but a shift in how the offense operates. Sam Darnold has an 8.06 average depth of target on his throws and has attempted just five passes of 14 air yards or more since Week 8. Anderson has a 14.1 average depth of target.
Similar to Brandin Cooks, Robby has found himself on the outside looking due to a struggling quarterback and offensive line unable to allow plays to develop downfield. Darnold showed more poise in the pocket in Week 10, but Anderson only benefited on a single reception for a short gain. Better options at receiver can likely be found on the waiver wire ahead of Week 11.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Yahoo! Ownership: 25%
Rashaad Penny's value is directly tied to the health of Chris Carson. Otherwise, Penny's snap share (30% or less since Week 7) and three touches per game remove him from any flex consideration. Also, it doesn’t help that he fumbled on his limited workload in Week 10 in a tight matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Seattle is entering their bye, making Penny a nonessential hold for the upcoming week.
Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
Yahoo! Ownership: 89%
The fantasy community saw Ronald Jones getting all the love as well as David Montgomery securing the lion’s share of Chicago’s backfield, and we wanted the same for Devin Singletary. His 23 carries (67.6% share) in Week 9 was assumed to be his emergence as the Buffalo Bills’ starter, but that quickly changed in Week 10. His snap share remained at a similar level (66% over the last three weeks), but his varying usage will remain as a detractor for starting him in the coming weeks, though he's far from droppable right now.