NFL

Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 10

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
25+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Lamar Jackson $8,600 24.2 41.4% 2.23 44.6% 29.6
Patrick Mahomes $8,400 21.2 30.9% 1.09 31.7% 26.4
Drew Brees $8,300 21.2 28.1% 0.94 28.1% 25.8
Jameis Winston $7,900 21.2 36.7% 1.50 29.5% 26.0
Kyler Murray $7,700 20.3 34.4% 1.38 25.6% 25.3
Aaron Rodgers $8,000 19.8 29.5% 0.99 24.4% 24.9
Jacoby Brissett $7,600 18.4 29.1% 0.79 19.9% 23.7
Matt Ryan $7,500 17.7 27.3% 0.78 18.7% 23.3
Daniel Jones $7,400 17.1 27.8% 0.79 17.5% 22.8
Josh Allen $7,500 16.9 21.9% 0.57 15.2% 21.6
Jared Goff $8,100 16.8 16.0% 0.34 13.7% 21.7
Ryan Tannehill $7,200 16.7 24.9% 0.65 13.7% 21.5
Matthew Stafford $7,900 16.3 16.9% 0.38 11.5% 21.7
Mitchell Trubisky $6,500 15.7 34.0% 0.99 11.6% 21.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick $7,100 15.2 21.1% 0.48 10.6% 20.4
Sam Darnold $7,200 15.0 19.7% 0.44 8.9% 20.4
Mason Rudolph $6,800 14.9 21.1% 0.49 6.9% 19.7
Kyle Allen $7,000 14.8 21.5% 0.49 8.1% 20.1
Baker Mayfield $7,100 14.5 18.1% 0.36 7.9% 19.2
Ryan Finley $6,300 13.9 22.6% 0.50 6.3% 18.5


Cash-Game Standouts
Lamar Jackson ($8,600) rates out number-one across the board in FanDuel points, boom-to-bust ratio, 75th-percentile value, and straight up value among quarterbacks this week in a game against the weak Cincinnati Bengals defense. It's hard to get to him if you also spend up too much at running back, but that's a conversation better suited for the running back section. The other top options in boom-to-bust ratio (so safety with some ceiling relative to price) are Jameis Winston ($7,900) and Kyler Murray ($7,700) in a shootout against one another followed by Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) and Aaron Rodgers ($8,000).

If spending below this, I'd be looking to Matt Ryan ($7,500), and he's my go-to if trying to jam in the pricey running backs.

Tournament Standouts
The best 75th-percentile outcomes belong to Jackson, Mahomes, Winston, Drew Brees ($8,300), and Murray. If using the 75th-percentile outcome for value, it's Mitchell Trubisky ($6,500) bumping out Brees to get into the top five, but you're on your own with Trubisky, as I won't be using him.

There's a pretty clear emphasis on the two shootouts (Arizona at Tampa Bay and Atlanta at New Orleans), so most passers outside of those four plus Jackson and Mahomes will likely be low owned. And, frankly, I wouldn't expect Ryan to be all that popular.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
20+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Christian McCaffrey $10,500 22.5 21.1% 0.46 58.4% 29.9
Alvin Kamara $8,300 19.7 30.3% 0.81 47.8% 26.7
Saquon Barkley $8,600 19.3 27.9% 0.64 45.8% 26.8
Aaron Jones $7,600 16.0 23.8% 0.52 32.8% 22.3
Marlon Mack $7,400 15.8 24.3% 0.56 34.1% 21.9
Nick Chubb $7,900 15.4 19.0% 0.38 31.0% 22.2
Le'Veon Bell $6,900 14.9 19.0% 0.42 22.3% 19.5
Derrick Henry $7,000 14.1 18.4% 0.37 22.3% 19.1
Jaylen Samuels $6,200 13.8 29.3% 0.65 23.9% 19.7
David Montgomery $6,400 13.7 27.9% 0.63 25.1% 20.0
David Johnson $6,800 13.1 21.2% 0.42 22.3% 19.4
Mark Ingram II $8,000 12.7 9.5% 0.15 21.0% 19.1
Todd Gurley II $7,200 12.5 15.3% 0.27 20.5% 18.7
Devonta Freeman $6,200 11.7 19.8% 0.37 15.4% 17.0
Devin Singletary $6,700 11.4 11.6% 0.18 11.9% 16.0
Damien Williams $6,000 10.8 15.5% 0.28 10.3% 15.7
Joe Mixon $6,100 10.7 14.4% 0.24 9.6% 15.4
Ronald Jones II $6,300 10.7 11.5% 0.18 9.0% 15.2
Latavius Murray $7,000 9.6 4.0% 0.05 5.2% 14.1
Jamaal Williams $5,600 9.2 13.0% 0.21 6.3% 13.4
Ty Johnson $5,900 9.2 12.1% 0.19 7.8% 13.9
Tarik Cohen $5,000 8.5 16.7% 0.29 4.3% 13.3
Kalen Ballage $4,600 8.1 16.9% 0.28 3.0% 12.1
Kenyan Drake $6,400 8.0 3.0% 0.04 2.4% 11.9
LeSean McCoy $5,400 7.0 5.7% 0.08 1.9% 11.0
Frank Gore $5,600 6.5 5.0% 0.07 1.2% 10.6
Nyheim Hines $4,600 6.2 10.7% 0.16 0.9% 10.4
J.D. McKissic $5,600 6.1 4.0% 0.05 1.3% 9.9
Kareem Hunt $4,500 6.0 10.1% 0.15 0.3% 10.1


Cash-Game Standouts
This week had been looking a little tight on surefire cash-game value, giving merit to the attempt of jamming in Christian McCaffrey ($10,500), Saquon Barkley ($6,200), and Alvin Kamara ($8,300), but with James Conner expected to sit in Week 10, Jaylen Samuels ($6,200) is back on the menu, boys. Kamara still rates out better in boom/bust ratio with an implied team total of 32 points, but Samuels is second. Barkley is third.

David Montgomery ($6,400) and Marlon Mack ($7,400) round out the top five and are cash-game viable as home favorites. McCaffrey ranks seventh, but the combination of Samuels and McCaffrey can be had for $8,350 each if you view it that way.

Tournament Standouts
The 10 best 75th-percentile, raw point outcomes this week belong to McCaffrey, Barkley, Kamara, Aaron Jones ($7,600), Nick Chubb ($7,900), Mack, Montgomery, Samuels, Le'Veon Bell ($6,900), and David Johnson ($6,800). That shouldn't surprise us, as (projectable) ceiling is tied to workload for backs.

Derrick Henry ($7,000), Mark Ingram ($8,000), and Todd Gurley ($7,200) all hit 20 FanDuel points in at least 20% of the simulations, as well.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Michael Thomas $8,700 20.0 61.9% 2.87 71.0% 26.4
Mike Evans $8,600 16.9 48.2% 1.43 56.0% 22.6
Chris Godwin $8,200 15.7 49.1% 1.52 56.2% 21.5
Tyreek Hill $8,000 15.2 45.3% 1.25 51.0% 21.0
Julio Jones $7,900 14.8 44.8% 1.26 49.5% 20.0
Cooper Kupp $8,100 14.7 41.3% 1.01 46.3% 20.1
Davante Adams $7,800 14.3 43.2% 1.16 45.8% 19.4
Kenny Golladay $7,700 12.2 29.6% 0.61 31.6% 16.3
Allen Robinson II $7,100 11.9 35.9% 0.82 32.9% 16.6
Odell Beckham Jr. $6,900 11.7 38.6% 0.89 33.0% 17.0
Christian Kirk $5,700 11.6 50.9% 1.50 31.1% 16.4
Golden Tate $6,300 11.4 42.9% 1.02 31.8% 16.3
DJ Moore $5,800 11.3 47.3% 1.36 27.3% 15.6
JuJu Smith-Schuster $6,800 11.0 38.9% 0.87 30.9% 16.3
Sammy Watkins $6,400 10.9 38.3% 0.88 26.9% 15.5
Tyler Boyd $5,700 10.8 47.2% 1.23 28.8% 15.8
Marvin Jones Jr. $6,600 10.8 33.0% 0.69 24.2% 14.8
Robert Woods $6,900 10.6 33.1% 0.70 27.7% 15.5
John Brown $5,800 10.3 39.4% 0.93 22.9% 14.6
Calvin Ridley $5,300 10.3 47.4% 1.26 25.3% 15.2
Jamison Crowder $6,500 10.1 36.1% 0.78 25.0% 15.0
DeVante Parker $5,800 10.0 42.0% 0.98 23.0% 14.7
Curtis Samuel $6,100 10.0 34.6% 0.71 21.0% 14.1
Jarvis Landry $6,000 9.9 38.1% 0.90 22.9% 14.4
Zach Pascal $6,400 9.8 35.8% 0.75 23.9% 14.7
Larry Fitzgerald $5,400 9.6 42.0% 0.98 21.0% 14.0
Marquise Brown $5,300 9.3 39.3% 0.90 18.5% 13.5
Robby Anderson $5,900 8.9 30.4% 0.60 15.0% 12.8
Auden Tate $5,300 8.5 34.5% 0.73 15.2% 12.4
Corey Davis $5,300 8.2 36.8% 0.79 15.9% 13.1
A.J. Brown $5,500 8.0 30.4% 0.58 12.6% 11.9
Ted Ginn Jr. $5,300 8.0 35.0% 0.74 12.3% 12.0
Alex Erickson $5,000 7.8 36.5% 0.73 14.0% 12.3
Cole Beasley $5,500 7.8 30.3% 0.56 12.2% 12.1
Danny Amendola $5,600 7.7 28.2% 0.51 12.8% 11.8
Diontae Johnson $4,700 7.7 41.2% 0.94 12.5% 12.3
Demaryius Thomas $4,700 7.6 39.8% 0.86 12.0% 12.1
Chester Rogers $5,200 7.6 29.5% 0.52 9.6% 11.2
Darius Slayton $5,600 7.5 28.4% 0.51 12.3% 11.8
Josh Reynolds $5,200 7.3 31.9% 0.64 10.1% 11.6
Adam Humphries $5,300 7.2 28.1% 0.50 9.7% 11.1
Albert Wilson $4,500 7.1 36.5% 0.72 10.4% 10.8


Cash-Game Standouts
The simulations love Michael Thomas ($8,700) as the top projected player by value, 75th-percentile value, and boom-to-bust ratio. I don't envision paying for him in cash games, though. Chris Godwin ($8,200) and Mike Evans ($8,600) are top-four by boom-to-bust ratio, with Christian Kirk ($5,700) ranking third.

Kirk, D.J. Moore ($5,800), and Calvin Ridley ($5,300) are sub-$6,000 receivers whom the model loves this week.

Tournament Standouts
The top 75th-percentile values belong to Thomas, Kirk, Ridley, Tyler Boyd ($5,700), Moore, Evans, Tyreek Hill ($8,000), Godwin, Diontae Johnson ($4,700), and Golden Tate ($6,300).

The seven wideouts who returned at least 15 FanDuel points in 45% of the sims: Thomas, Godwin, Evans, Hill, Julio Jones ($7,900), Cooper Kupp ($8,100), and Davante Adams ($7,800).

The best sub-$7,000 receivers in terms of 75th-percentile outcomes: Odell Beckham ($6,900), Kirk, Tate, JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,800), Boyd, Moore, Robert Woods ($6,900), and Sammy Watkins ($6,400).

Tight End

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Travis Kelce $6,700 13.4 51.0% 1.49 42.2% 19.0
Austin Hooper $6,600 10.8 33.2% 0.67 25.2% 15.0
Mark Andrews $6,800 9.8 30.4% 0.59 25.2% 15.1
Jack Doyle $5,200 7.6 31.9% 0.60 11.8% 11.8
Jared Cook $5,800 7.5 23.3% 0.40 8.6% 11.2
Greg Olsen $5,100 7.4 30.2% 0.56 8.7% 11.1
Mike Gesicki $5,300 6.8 25.7% 0.43 7.5% 10.7
Eric Ebron $4,900 6.8 32.3% 0.61 9.8% 10.9
Gerald Everett $5,700 6.7 19.9% 0.31 7.7% 10.6
Vance McDonald $5,600 6.7 18.5% 0.29 6.5% 10.0
O.J. Howard $5,000 6.2 23.7% 0.38 6.4% 9.8
Jimmy Graham $5,800 6.2 17.4% 0.26 5.9% 9.9
T.J. Hockenson $5,300 6.2 22.6% 0.36 5.2% 10.2
Jonnu Smith $5,100 5.7 21.2% 0.34 3.6% 9.5
Rhett Ellison $5,000 5.7 23.1% 0.38 4.7% 9.6
Tyler Eifert $5,000 5.3 19.8% 0.29 4.4% 8.9
Delanie Walker $5,400 5.3 13.3% 0.18 2.6% 8.1
Trey Burton $4,600 4.5 20.6% 0.32 2.9% 8.3
Cameron Brate $5,100 4.1 10.9% 0.14 1.2% 7.4
Dawson Knox $4,500 3.8 15.8% 0.22 2.1% 7.4
Nick Boyle $4,300 3.8 18.6% 0.27 1.7% 7.4
Tyler Higbee $4,500 3.5 12.5% 0.16 1.4% 6.7


Cash-Game Standouts
It's farcical to love any of these tight ends for cash games this week, but it's Travis Kelce ($6,700) at the top by a mile in terms of boom-to-bust ratio. It's really not even close at all. After him, it's Austin Hooper ($6,600), followed by Eric Ebron ($4,900), Jack Doyle ($5,200), and Mark Andrews ($6,800).

Tournament Standouts
Kelce has a 75th-percentile outcome of 19.0 points. Only Andrews (15.1) and Hooper (15.0) are above 11.8. Kelce returned at least 15.0 FanDuel points in 42.2% of the simulations. Andrews and Hooper did it 25.2% of the time. Doyle is fourth at 11.8%.

Greg Olsen ($5,100), Michael Gesicki ($5,300), O.J. Howard ($5,000), and Jared Cook ($5,800) are all in play as differentiation pieces, too, and are top-10 in 75th-percentile value.