Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 10
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
25+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lamar Jackson | $8,600 | 24.2 | 41.4% | 2.23 | 44.6% | 29.6 |
Patrick Mahomes | $8,400 | 21.2 | 30.9% | 1.09 | 31.7% | 26.4 |
Drew Brees | $8,300 | 21.2 | 28.1% | 0.94 | 28.1% | 25.8 |
Jameis Winston | $7,900 | 21.2 | 36.7% | 1.50 | 29.5% | 26.0 |
Kyler Murray | $7,700 | 20.3 | 34.4% | 1.38 | 25.6% | 25.3 |
Aaron Rodgers | $8,000 | 19.8 | 29.5% | 0.99 | 24.4% | 24.9 |
Jacoby Brissett | $7,600 | 18.4 | 29.1% | 0.79 | 19.9% | 23.7 |
Matt Ryan | $7,500 | 17.7 | 27.3% | 0.78 | 18.7% | 23.3 |
Daniel Jones | $7,400 | 17.1 | 27.8% | 0.79 | 17.5% | 22.8 |
Josh Allen | $7,500 | 16.9 | 21.9% | 0.57 | 15.2% | 21.6 |
Jared Goff | $8,100 | 16.8 | 16.0% | 0.34 | 13.7% | 21.7 |
Ryan Tannehill | $7,200 | 16.7 | 24.9% | 0.65 | 13.7% | 21.5 |
Matthew Stafford | $7,900 | 16.3 | 16.9% | 0.38 | 11.5% | 21.7 |
Mitchell Trubisky | $6,500 | 15.7 | 34.0% | 0.99 | 11.6% | 21.3 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7,100 | 15.2 | 21.1% | 0.48 | 10.6% | 20.4 |
Sam Darnold | $7,200 | 15.0 | 19.7% | 0.44 | 8.9% | 20.4 |
Mason Rudolph | $6,800 | 14.9 | 21.1% | 0.49 | 6.9% | 19.7 |
Kyle Allen | $7,000 | 14.8 | 21.5% | 0.49 | 8.1% | 20.1 |
Baker Mayfield | $7,100 | 14.5 | 18.1% | 0.36 | 7.9% | 19.2 |
Ryan Finley | $6,300 | 13.9 | 22.6% | 0.50 | 6.3% | 18.5 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Lamar Jackson ($8,600) rates out number-one across the board in FanDuel points, boom-to-bust ratio, 75th-percentile value, and straight up value among quarterbacks this week in a game against the weak Cincinnati Bengals defense. It's hard to get to him if you also spend up too much at running back, but that's a conversation better suited for the running back section. The other top options in boom-to-bust ratio (so safety with some ceiling relative to price) are Jameis Winston ($7,900) and Kyler Murray ($7,700) in a shootout against one another followed by Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) and Aaron Rodgers ($8,000).
If spending below this, I'd be looking to Matt Ryan ($7,500), and he's my go-to if trying to jam in the pricey running backs.
Tournament Standouts
The best 75th-percentile outcomes belong to Jackson, Mahomes, Winston, Drew Brees ($8,300), and Murray. If using the 75th-percentile outcome for value, it's Mitchell Trubisky ($6,500) bumping out Brees to get into the top five, but you're on your own with Trubisky, as I won't be using him.
There's a pretty clear emphasis on the two shootouts (Arizona at Tampa Bay and Atlanta at New Orleans), so most passers outside of those four plus Jackson and Mahomes will likely be low owned. And, frankly, I wouldn't expect Ryan to be all that popular.
Running Back
Simulation Results
Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
20+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Christian McCaffrey | $10,500 | 22.5 | 21.1% | 0.46 | 58.4% | 29.9 |
Alvin Kamara | $8,300 | 19.7 | 30.3% | 0.81 | 47.8% | 26.7 |
Saquon Barkley | $8,600 | 19.3 | 27.9% | 0.64 | 45.8% | 26.8 |
Aaron Jones | $7,600 | 16.0 | 23.8% | 0.52 | 32.8% | 22.3 |
Marlon Mack | $7,400 | 15.8 | 24.3% | 0.56 | 34.1% | 21.9 |
Nick Chubb | $7,900 | 15.4 | 19.0% | 0.38 | 31.0% | 22.2 |
Le'Veon Bell | $6,900 | 14.9 | 19.0% | 0.42 | 22.3% | 19.5 |
Derrick Henry | $7,000 | 14.1 | 18.4% | 0.37 | 22.3% | 19.1 |
Jaylen Samuels | $6,200 | 13.8 | 29.3% | 0.65 | 23.9% | 19.7 |
David Montgomery | $6,400 | 13.7 | 27.9% | 0.63 | 25.1% | 20.0 |
David Johnson | $6,800 | 13.1 | 21.2% | 0.42 | 22.3% | 19.4 |
Mark Ingram II | $8,000 | 12.7 | 9.5% | 0.15 | 21.0% | 19.1 |
Todd Gurley II | $7,200 | 12.5 | 15.3% | 0.27 | 20.5% | 18.7 |
Devonta Freeman | $6,200 | 11.7 | 19.8% | 0.37 | 15.4% | 17.0 |
Devin Singletary | $6,700 | 11.4 | 11.6% | 0.18 | 11.9% | 16.0 |
Damien Williams | $6,000 | 10.8 | 15.5% | 0.28 | 10.3% | 15.7 |
Joe Mixon | $6,100 | 10.7 | 14.4% | 0.24 | 9.6% | 15.4 |
Ronald Jones II | $6,300 | 10.7 | 11.5% | 0.18 | 9.0% | 15.2 |
Latavius Murray | $7,000 | 9.6 | 4.0% | 0.05 | 5.2% | 14.1 |
Jamaal Williams | $5,600 | 9.2 | 13.0% | 0.21 | 6.3% | 13.4 |
Ty Johnson | $5,900 | 9.2 | 12.1% | 0.19 | 7.8% | 13.9 |
Tarik Cohen | $5,000 | 8.5 | 16.7% | 0.29 | 4.3% | 13.3 |
Kalen Ballage | $4,600 | 8.1 | 16.9% | 0.28 | 3.0% | 12.1 |
Kenyan Drake | $6,400 | 8.0 | 3.0% | 0.04 | 2.4% | 11.9 |
LeSean McCoy | $5,400 | 7.0 | 5.7% | 0.08 | 1.9% | 11.0 |
Frank Gore | $5,600 | 6.5 | 5.0% | 0.07 | 1.2% | 10.6 |
Nyheim Hines | $4,600 | 6.2 | 10.7% | 0.16 | 0.9% | 10.4 |
J.D. McKissic | $5,600 | 6.1 | 4.0% | 0.05 | 1.3% | 9.9 |
Kareem Hunt | $4,500 | 6.0 | 10.1% | 0.15 | 0.3% | 10.1 |
Cash-Game Standouts
This week had been looking a little tight on surefire cash-game value, giving merit to the attempt of jamming in Christian McCaffrey ($10,500), Saquon Barkley ($6,200), and Alvin Kamara ($8,300), but with James Conner expected to sit in Week 10, Jaylen Samuels ($6,200) is back on the menu, boys. Kamara still rates out better in boom/bust ratio with an implied team total of 32 points, but Samuels is second. Barkley is third.
David Montgomery ($6,400) and Marlon Mack ($7,400) round out the top five and are cash-game viable as home favorites. McCaffrey ranks seventh, but the combination of Samuels and McCaffrey can be had for $8,350 each if you view it that way.
Tournament Standouts
The 10 best 75th-percentile, raw point outcomes this week belong to McCaffrey, Barkley, Kamara, Aaron Jones ($7,600), Nick Chubb ($7,900), Mack, Montgomery, Samuels, Le'Veon Bell ($6,900), and David Johnson ($6,800). That shouldn't surprise us, as (projectable) ceiling is tied to workload for backs.
Derrick Henry ($7,000), Mark Ingram ($8,000), and Todd Gurley ($7,200) all hit 20 FanDuel points in at least 20% of the simulations, as well.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Thomas | $8,700 | 20.0 | 61.9% | 2.87 | 71.0% | 26.4 |
Mike Evans | $8,600 | 16.9 | 48.2% | 1.43 | 56.0% | 22.6 |
Chris Godwin | $8,200 | 15.7 | 49.1% | 1.52 | 56.2% | 21.5 |
Tyreek Hill | $8,000 | 15.2 | 45.3% | 1.25 | 51.0% | 21.0 |
Julio Jones | $7,900 | 14.8 | 44.8% | 1.26 | 49.5% | 20.0 |
Cooper Kupp | $8,100 | 14.7 | 41.3% | 1.01 | 46.3% | 20.1 |
Davante Adams | $7,800 | 14.3 | 43.2% | 1.16 | 45.8% | 19.4 |
Kenny Golladay | $7,700 | 12.2 | 29.6% | 0.61 | 31.6% | 16.3 |
Allen Robinson II | $7,100 | 11.9 | 35.9% | 0.82 | 32.9% | 16.6 |
Odell Beckham Jr. | $6,900 | 11.7 | 38.6% | 0.89 | 33.0% | 17.0 |
Christian Kirk | $5,700 | 11.6 | 50.9% | 1.50 | 31.1% | 16.4 |
Golden Tate | $6,300 | 11.4 | 42.9% | 1.02 | 31.8% | 16.3 |
DJ Moore | $5,800 | 11.3 | 47.3% | 1.36 | 27.3% | 15.6 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,800 | 11.0 | 38.9% | 0.87 | 30.9% | 16.3 |
Sammy Watkins | $6,400 | 10.9 | 38.3% | 0.88 | 26.9% | 15.5 |
Tyler Boyd | $5,700 | 10.8 | 47.2% | 1.23 | 28.8% | 15.8 |
Marvin Jones Jr. | $6,600 | 10.8 | 33.0% | 0.69 | 24.2% | 14.8 |
Robert Woods | $6,900 | 10.6 | 33.1% | 0.70 | 27.7% | 15.5 |
John Brown | $5,800 | 10.3 | 39.4% | 0.93 | 22.9% | 14.6 |
Calvin Ridley | $5,300 | 10.3 | 47.4% | 1.26 | 25.3% | 15.2 |
Jamison Crowder | $6,500 | 10.1 | 36.1% | 0.78 | 25.0% | 15.0 |
DeVante Parker | $5,800 | 10.0 | 42.0% | 0.98 | 23.0% | 14.7 |
Curtis Samuel | $6,100 | 10.0 | 34.6% | 0.71 | 21.0% | 14.1 |
Jarvis Landry | $6,000 | 9.9 | 38.1% | 0.90 | 22.9% | 14.4 |
Zach Pascal | $6,400 | 9.8 | 35.8% | 0.75 | 23.9% | 14.7 |
Larry Fitzgerald | $5,400 | 9.6 | 42.0% | 0.98 | 21.0% | 14.0 |
Marquise Brown | $5,300 | 9.3 | 39.3% | 0.90 | 18.5% | 13.5 |
Robby Anderson | $5,900 | 8.9 | 30.4% | 0.60 | 15.0% | 12.8 |
Auden Tate | $5,300 | 8.5 | 34.5% | 0.73 | 15.2% | 12.4 |
Corey Davis | $5,300 | 8.2 | 36.8% | 0.79 | 15.9% | 13.1 |
A.J. Brown | $5,500 | 8.0 | 30.4% | 0.58 | 12.6% | 11.9 |
Ted Ginn Jr. | $5,300 | 8.0 | 35.0% | 0.74 | 12.3% | 12.0 |
Alex Erickson | $5,000 | 7.8 | 36.5% | 0.73 | 14.0% | 12.3 |
Cole Beasley | $5,500 | 7.8 | 30.3% | 0.56 | 12.2% | 12.1 |
Danny Amendola | $5,600 | 7.7 | 28.2% | 0.51 | 12.8% | 11.8 |
Diontae Johnson | $4,700 | 7.7 | 41.2% | 0.94 | 12.5% | 12.3 |
Demaryius Thomas | $4,700 | 7.6 | 39.8% | 0.86 | 12.0% | 12.1 |
Chester Rogers | $5,200 | 7.6 | 29.5% | 0.52 | 9.6% | 11.2 |
Darius Slayton | $5,600 | 7.5 | 28.4% | 0.51 | 12.3% | 11.8 |
Josh Reynolds | $5,200 | 7.3 | 31.9% | 0.64 | 10.1% | 11.6 |
Adam Humphries | $5,300 | 7.2 | 28.1% | 0.50 | 9.7% | 11.1 |
Albert Wilson | $4,500 | 7.1 | 36.5% | 0.72 | 10.4% | 10.8 |
Cash-Game Standouts
The simulations love Michael Thomas ($8,700) as the top projected player by value, 75th-percentile value, and boom-to-bust ratio. I don't envision paying for him in cash games, though. Chris Godwin ($8,200) and Mike Evans ($8,600) are top-four by boom-to-bust ratio, with Christian Kirk ($5,700) ranking third.
Kirk, D.J. Moore ($5,800), and Calvin Ridley ($5,300) are sub-$6,000 receivers whom the model loves this week.
Tournament Standouts
The top 75th-percentile values belong to Thomas, Kirk, Ridley, Tyler Boyd ($5,700), Moore, Evans, Tyreek Hill ($8,000), Godwin, Diontae Johnson ($4,700), and Golden Tate ($6,300).
The seven wideouts who returned at least 15 FanDuel points in 45% of the sims: Thomas, Godwin, Evans, Hill, Julio Jones ($7,900), Cooper Kupp ($8,100), and Davante Adams ($7,800).
The best sub-$7,000 receivers in terms of 75th-percentile outcomes: Odell Beckham ($6,900), Kirk, Tate, JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,800), Boyd, Moore, Robert Woods ($6,900), and Sammy Watkins ($6,400).
Tight End
Simulation Results
Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Travis Kelce | $6,700 | 13.4 | 51.0% | 1.49 | 42.2% | 19.0 |
Austin Hooper | $6,600 | 10.8 | 33.2% | 0.67 | 25.2% | 15.0 |
Mark Andrews | $6,800 | 9.8 | 30.4% | 0.59 | 25.2% | 15.1 |
Jack Doyle | $5,200 | 7.6 | 31.9% | 0.60 | 11.8% | 11.8 |
Jared Cook | $5,800 | 7.5 | 23.3% | 0.40 | 8.6% | 11.2 |
Greg Olsen | $5,100 | 7.4 | 30.2% | 0.56 | 8.7% | 11.1 |
Mike Gesicki | $5,300 | 6.8 | 25.7% | 0.43 | 7.5% | 10.7 |
Eric Ebron | $4,900 | 6.8 | 32.3% | 0.61 | 9.8% | 10.9 |
Gerald Everett | $5,700 | 6.7 | 19.9% | 0.31 | 7.7% | 10.6 |
Vance McDonald | $5,600 | 6.7 | 18.5% | 0.29 | 6.5% | 10.0 |
O.J. Howard | $5,000 | 6.2 | 23.7% | 0.38 | 6.4% | 9.8 |
Jimmy Graham | $5,800 | 6.2 | 17.4% | 0.26 | 5.9% | 9.9 |
T.J. Hockenson | $5,300 | 6.2 | 22.6% | 0.36 | 5.2% | 10.2 |
Jonnu Smith | $5,100 | 5.7 | 21.2% | 0.34 | 3.6% | 9.5 |
Rhett Ellison | $5,000 | 5.7 | 23.1% | 0.38 | 4.7% | 9.6 |
Tyler Eifert | $5,000 | 5.3 | 19.8% | 0.29 | 4.4% | 8.9 |
Delanie Walker | $5,400 | 5.3 | 13.3% | 0.18 | 2.6% | 8.1 |
Trey Burton | $4,600 | 4.5 | 20.6% | 0.32 | 2.9% | 8.3 |
Cameron Brate | $5,100 | 4.1 | 10.9% | 0.14 | 1.2% | 7.4 |
Dawson Knox | $4,500 | 3.8 | 15.8% | 0.22 | 2.1% | 7.4 |
Nick Boyle | $4,300 | 3.8 | 18.6% | 0.27 | 1.7% | 7.4 |
Tyler Higbee | $4,500 | 3.5 | 12.5% | 0.16 | 1.4% | 6.7 |
Cash-Game Standouts
It's farcical to love any of these tight ends for cash games this week, but it's Travis Kelce ($6,700) at the top by a mile in terms of boom-to-bust ratio. It's really not even close at all. After him, it's Austin Hooper ($6,600), followed by Eric Ebron ($4,900), Jack Doyle ($5,200), and Mark Andrews ($6,800).
Tournament Standouts
Kelce has a 75th-percentile outcome of 19.0 points. Only Andrews (15.1) and Hooper (15.0) are above 11.8. Kelce returned at least 15.0 FanDuel points in 42.2% of the simulations. Andrews and Hooper did it 25.2% of the time. Doyle is fourth at 11.8%.
Greg Olsen ($5,100), Michael Gesicki ($5,300), O.J. Howard ($5,000), and Jared Cook ($5,800) are all in play as differentiation pieces, too, and are top-10 in 75th-percentile value.