FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Early-Slate Helper: Week 10
The Week 10 NFL DFS early-slate on FanDuel has seven games, all kicking off at 1 p.m. EST. All games have an implied total over 40.0 with two topping 50.0, so this should be a high-scoring slate.
The numberFire NFL DFS Matchup Heat Map will be referenced for all implied totals and spreads throughout this article, so be sure to check it out.
Let’s look at the best plays at every price point on the slate.
High Priced Studs
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants ($8,600)
Saquon Barkley's rushing efficiency has fallen off a cliff since his return from his high ankle sprain. In Week 7 against the Arizona Cardinals, he averaged a modest -0.05 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry. In Week 8, that dipped to -0.14 and then to -0.24 last week against the Dallas Cowboys. That was the fifth-worst among running backs with at least five carries in Week 9.
The good news is that his passing game role has skyrocketed, as he has seen 23 targets in his last three games. That production has offset his dip in efficiency, raising his floor. He also has a good shot at maintaining that, as Evan Engram is in a walking boot for a foot injury.
Just give @saquon the ball and let him go to work pic.twitter.com/VAwyBZd856
— The Daily Collegian (@DailyCollegian) November 5, 2019
The New York Jets are strong against the run, ranking fourth in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. If you're paying up for Barkley, you're paying for his high floor and hoping he finds the end zone.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns ($7,900)
Once again, the Cleveland Browns should be game-planning around their stud running backs. The Buffalo Bills currently rank 30th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play while ranking 15th against the pass, which could cause Baker Mayfield to struggle yet again.
While Nick Chubb has enjoyed an 83 percent opportunity share thus far, that could dip in the coming weeks with the debut of Kareem Hunt. The Browns' offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, hinted that the offense wouldn't change much with the inclusion of Hunt, so Chubb could easily cede some work and still be the usual superstar fantasy asset.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints ($8,700)
A matchup with Isaiah Oliver and a 31st-ranked Atlanta Falcons pass defense is the perfect way to come out of a bye. Throw in the fact that he has his Hall of Fame-bound quarterback back healthy, and Michael Thomas is looking like the best play on the slate.
There is just one player who has 15+ fantasy points in every game his team has played this season: Saints WR Michael Thomas. Consistent dominance.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 6, 2019
The New Orleans Saints have the highest implied team total on the slate at 32.0, so a Saints stack with Brees and Thomas will be a high-scoring option, albeit pricy.
Mid-Priced Upside Plays
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals ($6,800)
Kenyan Drake just ran wild last Thursday night against a San Francisco 49ers that ranks first in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play. The Cardinals also have a matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rank first in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, so literally no one will want to play David Johnson in DFS. But that is the perfect reason to play him.
We know he has an incredible ceiling based on his talent, and he also has a high floor. Johnson hasn't dipped below 15 fantasy points in any game that he hasn't left early due to injury. He likely won't be seeing 20-plus carries on the ground, but that's never how the Cardinals intend to use him. He's a mismatch in the passing game, ranking sixth among running backs with at least 30 targets in Reception NEP per target.
There has also been chatter from beat reporters saying that Arizona could move him around the formation with Drake on the field as well. Leverage his low ownership and look for DJ to exploit this defense with his hands.
Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills ($6,700)
Buffalo finally realized that Frank Gore's -0.10 Rushing NEP per carry wasn't doing their offenses any favors. They finally gave their rookie running back, Devin Singletary, double-digit carries, feeding him 23 total touches. Singletary turned those into 140 total yards and a touchdown.
Cool exchange postgame when @AdrianPeterson met #GoBills rookie Devin Singletary (@motorsingletary)
Peterson: "Keep it up... keep grinding. You got some talent."
Singletary: "I'm just trying to ball like you!"
Peterson: "You're doing it man. Just keep working hard." pic.twitter.com/c5FcFMsNZ8
— Dan Fetes (@danfetes) November 4, 2019
He'll look to continue that success against a Browns franchise that is living up to its reputation. Their run defense has been shaky, ranking 26th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. Assuming the Bills are a rational team, Singletary should rack up another 20 touches against this exploitable defense.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,700)
You know it's been a weird year when Travis Kelce isn't the most expensive tight end on a DFS slate, but here we are. Without a truly viable cheap option, many will opt to pay up for Kelce this week, especially with Patrick Mahomes nearing a return to the field.
The Tennessee Titans have seemingly been decent against tight ends, but they have not played many competent ones. Austin Hooper hung 9 catches for 130 yards on them in Week 4 while Hunter Henry posted 6 for 97 in Week 7. Kelce is clearly superior to those two, and our projections have him as the highest-scoring and best value per dollar tight end on the slate.
Bargain Bin Prospects
Ty Montgomery, RB, New York Jets ($4,600)
Le'Veon Bell may be fine, but the team signing Josh Adams after his MRI isn't a positive indication that he'll play this week. If that were to come to fruition, Ty Montgomery would be set up similar to Jaylen Samuels in Week 9.
Injury updates: #Jets coach Adam Gase says Le’Veon Bell’s knee is sore and he won’t practice today. Sounds like he’s got a shot at Sunday. Meanwhile, #Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said WR Adam Thielen’s hamstring isn’t long-term. But his availability is up in the air.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 6, 2019
Monty is a big-bodied back that has incredible receiving upside with his background as a wide receiver at Stanford. The Jets should be able to move the ball on the New York Giants, who rank 20th in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play. If Bell misses, Montgomery would be a nice salary relief option.
Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($5,700)
Christian Kirk has now seen at least 20 percent of Kyler Murray's attempts in all but one game this season. That one game was also against the Seattle Seahawks, where he left early with an ankle injury. This means Kirk is going to get volume regardless of matchup, and whenever they get in a shootout his ceiling rises.
That should be the case this week, as this game's total of 52.0 is the highest on the slate. Both of these teams also rank top-10 in pace, according to Football Outsiders, so we should see extra pass attempts from Arizona. Our projections have Kirk as the second-best value receiver on the slate.
Jonathan Taylor Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice Jonathan Taylor Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jtsmittyyy. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.