The 3 Most Popular NFL Bets for Week 10
In Week 9, the public was wrong on all three accounts. In the popular Chargers/Packers matchup in Los Angeles, the Packers failed to cover while the game fell short of the 48.5 total by 11.5 points. And as for the Lions, they did not take the upset over the Raiders, who got the win by a count of 31-24.
Sunday and Monday provide plenty more opportunities to get in on the action at FanDuel Sportsbook. This week, we have another 12 games on tap. Five have a spread of no more than a field goal, and two have 50-point over/unders.
But which games and lines are getting the most action? Thanks to numberFire's new oddsFire tool, we can see exactly that -- where the public is laying the most bets, and what percentage of money is on which team and which side of the total.
Using oddsFire as our guide, let's dive into the three lines (one spread, one moneyline, one over/under) getting the most love, with the goal of deciding whether the numbers support or contradict the public's heavy investment.
After two weeks on the shelf, it would appear Patrick Mahomes is ready for his return to the field Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs go on the road to face the Tennessee Titans. The reigning MVP has practiced in full over the past two days, which tells us that he is likely to play even without an official announcement.
Tennessee will be playing its fourth straight game with Ryan Tannehill as the starter, and they will look to improve their record to 3-1 with him leading the team. Their sixth-ranked defense has been a great complement to an offense ranked 26th in points per game and 27th in our power rankings. Can they keep up with Andy Reid's high-powered Chiefs attack?
With Mahomes starting, KC is 3-4 against the spread this season, but, according to Killer Sports, they are 3-1 in road matchups, with all four straight-up wins. They are 12-11-2 overall going back to last year, though the Chiefs have gone 6-2-2 on the road and 4-2-1 in the seven they have been favored against the points.
The Titans are 4-5 against the spread in 2019, including a 2-1 mark under Tannehill. Their last three games have been decided by an average of seven points, with their one loss by 10 last week against the Carolina Panthers,
The Chiefs are looking good to cover, and that's music to the hears of the 96% of bettors laying money behind Mahomes and company. The fact that 98% of the money is also on the Chiefs is enough to inspire confidence despite their role as road favorites.
For a second straight week, the public is hitting a road underdog on the moneyline, and this time it's the 6-2 Buffalo Bills. The Bills are riding high after a dominant win over Washington last week, making it three wins in four games. But at the same time, the host Browns are winless in their last four and 2-6 for the season and in the face of all the preseason hype nonetheless.
Coming in, however, the lines have held in the Browns' favor. Buffalo opened at +125 on the moneyline and +2.5 on the spread, where they still stand at the time of this writing. That steadiness hasn't deterred willing bettors as we've seen 94% of bets on Buffalo, along with 86% of the money.
By our metrics, Buffalo is the better team. They are 23rd to the Browns' ranking of 26th, and they've been more effective in both facets of the game. Buffalo is also third in opponent passing yards and second in passing touchdowns against while they are middle-of-the-pack against the run, allowing 111.6 yards per game. It might just come down to whether the Browns can get Nick Chubb going and utilize play action.
The trends aren't much in favor of Cleveland. The Browns are 1-2 as betting favorites, including last week's five-point loss to the Denver Broncos. As for the Bills, they're 2-1 as underdogs with the exact same record as road 'dogs. Actually, they haven't lost a game on the road this season so their defense and ball-control offense handles the pressure well. This bet is easily justified from what we've seen this season.
On Monday night, the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers -- off the main slate -- are set for a true NFC West showdown. The game will be out at Levi's Stadium with the Niners favored by 6.5 in what's expected to be a fairly high-scoring game. The oddsmakers started this total out at 44.5, but 89% of the bets have been on the over, pushing that by more than three points in the process. And still, 88% of the money is on the same side.
What is worth noting, though, is that the under is the slight favorite at -115 compared to the over, which is at -105 odds. The value is on the over, but is it worth the risk?
According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks and Niners are 20th and 10th, respectively, in situation-neutral pace despite their run-first plans. And Seattle's pace increases from 31.35 seconds per play to 23.96 when trailing by at least a touchdown, which is certainly possible here if the spread is any indication.
Combined, San Francisco's and Seattle's games have watched the over hit in 8 of 17. While San Fran's averaged 42.2 points between them and their opponents, Seattle and their foes have averaged a whopping 53.2. In fact, of their last five games, four have hit at least 47 and three have seen 59 or more. The over is 3-2 in that span.
With all the love pressing the total up to nearly seven combined touchdowns, it's probably best to lay off this one right now. The under makes sense as the proper course correction.