FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10
Welcome to our weekly FanDuel daily fantasy football helper, where we give you an overview of the Sunday main slate to help you get started on your research. As always, we recommend checking out all of numberFire's premium tools at your disposal. In particular, the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals, and every team's strengths and weaknesses. You also have access to numberFire's weekly projections, which can assist you in nailing down who might be the slate's top scorers and best values.
Now, let's run through some of this week's top plays on the FanDuel main slate.
Lamar Jackson ($8,600 on FanDuel): Can we really start with anyone else? Lamar Jackson took on the league's most feared defense in the New England Patriots last week, and promptly stomped them on his way to 28.62 FanDuel points. Averaging a ludicrous 12.4 carries and 79.6 rushing yards a game this season -- 15.8 rushes and 99.8 yards over the last four games -- Jackson has been every bit the fantasy cheat code that people were hoping for entering the season. Essentially a quarterback and running back merged into one, he's averaging 26.15 FanDuel points per game, a mark bested by only Christian McCaffrey (28.17) on this slate.
Considering how Jackson performed against the Pats, the winless Bengals should be easy pickings, with Baltimore checking in with a 27.50 implied total as 10.5-point road favorites. numberFire's projections not only peg Jackson for the slate's most raw fantasy points, but he's also the second-best point-per-dollar value across all positions.
Jameis Winston ($7,900): Watching Jameis Winston may be maddening in real life, but when it comes to his fantasy bottom line, you'll like what you see more often than not. After stumbling out of the gate against two tough defenses in Weeks 1 and 2, Winston hasn't dropped below 17 FanDuel points in six straight games -- and yes, that includes that horrific five-pick game against Carolina in Week 6. He's thrown over 300 yards and/or tallied multiple scores in all six times over that span, a streak he should be able to extend in a potential shootout against the Cardinals.
This game has shootout written all over it with a slate-high 52.0 over/under, and Arizona ranks 28th in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and has allowed the most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks.
Kyler Murray ($7,700): On the other side, Kyler Murray should also benefit from this fantasy-friendly environment and projects as the top point-per-dollar value on the entire slate. Like Arizona, Tampa Bay's defense hasn't been any good against the pass, either, ranking 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play while coughing up the third-most FanDuel points per game to opposing signal callers. While Murray may not have Winston's lofty passing totals, he makes up for it on the ground, averaging 7.1 carries and 42.3 rushing yards over the last seven games -- which is like averaging an extra passing score every week.
Christian McCaffrey ($10,500): The only player on the slate averaging more FanDuel points per game than Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey remains a no-brainer top play despite his ever-rising price tag. Averaging 20.6 rushes and 6.6 targets per game, McCaffrey puts up numbers regardless of matchup and now gets a Packers defense that ranks 31st in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play.
Saquon Barkley ($8,600): Saquon Barkley is projected for almost the exact same number of raw fantasy points as McCaffrey but will be far easier to fit into lineup at practically $2k cheaper. Despite a disappointing lack of spike weeks thus far, Barkley's averaged nearly 25 opportunities in his three games since coming off injury in Week 7, and the Jets rank 19th in Target Success Rate allowed to running backs. Alvin Kamara ($8,300) returns this week and is also in the mix at right around the same price -- McCaffrey, Barkley, and Kamara are the only backs projected for 18 or more FanDuel points this week.
David Montgomery ($6,400): David Montgomery has now seen at least 18 opportunities and a 73% snap rate in two straight games, making it a little easier to trust his workload this week after being all over the place for most of the season. He should see a better game script as a 2.5-point home favorite against Detroit, whose defense has given up the most FanDuel points per game to running backs. According to numberFire's projections, Montgomery is a top-five value at the position this week.
Jaylen Samuels ($6,200): Saving the best point-per-dollar running back for last, Jaylen Samuels should be set for another solid workload, with James Conner once again ruled out for Pittsburgh. Earlier in the week it looked like Trey Edmunds might also sit out, but after practicing on Friday, he's a go this Sunday, unfortunately eliminating the chance of Samuels having the backfield all to himself. Still, Samuels logged 8 carries and 13 targets with a 63% snap rate with Conner out in Week 9, which is still volume we can get on board with at this price.
Michael Thomas ($8,700): Michael Thomas leads all wideouts in projected fantasy points, and it's actually not even all that close. The Saints have the slate's highest implied total (32.50) in a fantastic matchup against the Falcons, who rank 31st against the pass by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics and 32nd in Target Success Rate allowed to wide receivers. Thomas is averaging just over 11 targets per game with a massive 34.9% target share and 41.9% air yards share.
Mike Evans ($8,600): While there's always the possibility that the pendulum swings back towards Chris Godwin ($8,200) -- who's also a fantastic play -- it's hard to ignore how often Jameis Winston has been looking Mike Evans' way the last three games, tallying target totals of 17, 12, and 16. Over that span, Evans has a 32.8% target share and 44.6% air yards share that rivals even Michael Thomas. Although Evans could get the shadow treatment from Patrick Peterson, it's worth noting that Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have both posted big fantasy scores against Peterson the last two weeks.
Golden Tate ($6,300): With both Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard ruled out, that leaves Golden Tate as Giants' clear top pass-catcher against the Jets. In four games with Shepard out, Tate has seen a target totals of 9, 10, 11, and 6 for a team-high 25.2% target share (Engram was also out for one of those games). The Jets rank 26th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play and have given up the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.
Christian Kirk ($5,700): Coming off a quiet performance against a tough 49ers defense and still looking for his first touchdown of the season, Christian Kirk's price remains far too low for his role in Arizona's offense, making him the top projected value at the position among wideouts priced below $6,000. In the six games he's been active, Kirk leads the team with a 24.5% target share, seeing double-digit targets three times. He's in a great spot to get that elusive first touchdown against Tampa Bay, a team that's allowed the most FanDuel points per game to opposing wideouts.
Travis Kelce ($6,700): Much like Michael Thomas, Travis Kelce is the top-projected player at his position in terms of both raw points and point-per-dollar value. Kelce has dropped below eight targets only once in nine games this season, and it sure can't hurt that superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) will be back in action against the Titans. Although Tennessee has been a solid defense in 2019, the rank 23rd in Target Success Rate given up to tight ends.
Jack Doyle ($5,200): With six teams on bye (and Engram injured), this feels like an especially rough week for tight ends, with only Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews ($6,800), and Austin Hooper ($6,600) projected for double-digit FanDuel points. So don't expect a whole lot of floor if you're paying down, but Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron ($4,900) have some potential against the Dolphins, numberFire's 32nd-ranked pass defense.
With T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell both out, Zach Pascal ($6,400) will be de facto top pass-catcher in the offense, but it also opens to door for Doyle and Ebron to be more involved. Between the two, Doyle arguably has the safer floor due to his much higher snap rate (75% versus Ebron's 37%), and both of Doyle's touchdowns have come with Hilton sidelined this season.
Baltimore D/ST ($5,000) and Indianapolis D/ST ($4,900): We love to see defenses as heavy favorites, as that means their opponents will likely need to go pass-heavy in negative game scripts, leading to more opportunities for sacks and turnovers. That's exactly what we have in Baltimore and Indianapolis, who are both favored by double-digits in their respective matchups.
Although Baltimore is on the road, their secondary is beginning to look rather imposing at full strength, and they'll be facing Ryan Finley in his NFL debut for the Bengals. Previous Cincinnati starter Andy Dalton was sacked 29 times before being benched, the second-most times in the league.
Meanwhile, the Colts will get Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins, a team now sorely lacking playmakers beyond DeVante Parker ($5,800). While Fitzpatrick is coming off his best start of 2019, the journeyman is known for being wildly inconsistent, as shown by his benching earlier this season.
Kansas City D/ST ($3,700): Despite being away from Arrowhead, Kansas City projects as the slate's top value defense and is a 5.5-point favorite against Tennessee. Ryan Tannehill has helped jumpstart the Titans' offense, but he's already been sacked 13 times and picked off 4 times in his four appearances since coming in relief of Marcus Mariota in Week 6. Overall, the Titans' offensive line ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate allowed, per Football Outsiders.