Daily Fantasy Football Quarterback Primer: Week 10
Welcome to another edition of my weekly NFL DFS quarterback primer article. Each week I will be looking to find an edge at the quarterback position for daily fantasy football contests.
In this weekly column, you will find the best value quarterbacks for tournaments and head-to-head cash games. Additionally, I will highlight one or two quarterbacks to avoid in the upcoming week.
Last week was an up and down week for this column. Aaron Rodgers, our top overall play of the week, flopped with his lowest passing yards in a game so far this season. However, our tournament play, Jameis Winston, returned great value at his cost, finishing as the fourth-best quarterback of Week 9. We also avoided Jacoby Brissett, who went down with an injury early, finishing with fewer than three points on the day.
Let's get try and do it again for Week 10.
Best Overall Play of the Week
Kyler Murray ($7,700) -- Murray has a matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10. In a game with the highest over/under of the week, we can expect Murray to throw the ball early and often. The Buccaneers have a top-15 passing defense according to our power rankings, but they have allowed the sixth-most passing yards and the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. A big reason for this is due to their stellar run defense. According to our power rankings, Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the league. This has forced teams to abandon the run against them, which has led to increased passing volume. Don't be shocked if we see Murray throw a season-high in passing attempts. He's the top value play across all positions in Week 10 according to our projections.
Jameis Winston ($7,900) -- On the other side of the ball in what should be the shootout of the week is Jameis Winston. Winston's biggest issue this season has been throwing interceptions. He is tied for the most interceptions in the league with 12 so far this year. However, Winston gets a matchup with the sixth-worst passing defense in the league that has managed to force a league-low two interceptions. With over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns in each of his last two games, Winston has the upside we are looking for in tournaments. Stacking the fourth-year quarterback with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and/or O.J. Howard could be the winning recipe in tournaments this weekend. Winston is the fourth-best value play at the position, according to numberFire's model.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) -- Mahomes looks destined to return in Week 10 after a two-week absence due to injury. His price makes him hard to build around, but the tantalizing upside cannot be overlooked in tournaments. Mahomes is the only quarterback this season to have multiple games with 16 or more deep ball attempts (passes that travel 16-plus air yards). His willingness to throw the ball down field gives him the highest upside of any thrower in the league despite going up against a top-12 Tennessee Titans passing defense, per our power rankings. Our models have the former MVP pegged for the most passing yards and the second-most touchdowns in Week 10.
Lamar Jackson ($8,600) -- FanDuel can't seem to find a high enough price for Lamar Jackson to not be considered in cash. He comes in as the highest priced quarterback of Week 10 but is still the second-best value play of the week across all positions according to our projections. The second-year quarterback is on track to break Michael Vick's rushing record by Week 14. Let that sink in. Our model has him projected for a conservative 53 rushing yards against the Cincinnati Bengals this week. I say this is conservative because Jackson is averaging 79 rushing yards per game and ran for 152 yards against this defense only four weeks ago. Jackson has been locked into our cash lineups all season, and we should continue to rely on him in Week 10.
Quarterback to Avoid
Ryan Tannehill ($7,200) -- I have done my best to pick quarterbacks you might actually consider playing in DFS for this part of the column. I never thought that would be the case for Ryan Tannehill this season. Tannehill has quietly scored 19-plus fantasy points in three straight starts for the Titans. This has led to many, even on this very website, touting Tannehill as a sneaky start in DFS this weekend. He should be in a high-scoring game with the Kansas City Chiefs, has done well his past three games, and is one of the cheapest options at the position. However, Tannehill's ceiling is simply not worth his potential floor. The veteran quarterback has not completed more than three deep ball passes in a game this season. For reference, every player recommended in this article has a game with at least 13 deep ball attempts.
The main reason we should fade the "sneaky" Tannehill play in Week 10 is his floor. Despite playing in a game with the third-highest over/under on the main slate, there is reason to expect the Titans to lean heavily on their running attack in this game. The Titans have shown they are a run-first team throughout this year, running the ball on 43% of their plays, good for the 12th-highest percentage in the league. If the Titans keep this game close, they have every reason to run the ball against a Chiefs defense that ranks sixth-best against the pass but seventh-worst against the run. The Chiefs are averaging the third-most rushing attempts against so far this season because they have a clear weakness on defense. We should be looking elsewhere in Week 10.
Samuel Factor is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Samuel Factor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Samfact2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.