DRAFT Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10
Just because the NFL season is underway doesn't mean you can't enjoy fantasy football drafts.
Over at DRAFT.com, you can get the experience of a fantasy draft while building your daily fantasy rosters, and the format is quite simple.
You roster one quarterback, two running backs, and two wide receiver/tight ends, while drafting against opponents in real-time. That means the typical "value" aspect of daily fantasy is different, as you're not worrying about salary cap and instead just playing your opponents for your preferred picks of the week.
What stands out for Week 10's main slate?
When considering running backs in the DRAFT format, you are required to draft two, but the difference between the top options and the next grouping can be a big drop-off.
Our projections have three running backs projected for 20.6 points or more, while the third running back is projected for 16.6 fantasy points. This might not seem massive, but in fantasy football or DFS, every point matters. In your head-to-head matches, you will 100% be grabbing at least one of these top running backs, but as you move on to 4-Person, 6-Person, and 10-person DRAFTS, things can change dramatically.
Let's take a look at a few players by tiers, so you can get a clear picture of where you should be targeting each player.
1. Christian McCaffrey (RB1) - Breaking news: McCaffrey is the top projected running back yet again this week. The Carolina Panthers are on the road to take on the Green Bay Packers, and the over/under is set at 46.5 points, the fourth-highest on the slate. The Panthers are also 5.5-point underdogs, which should cause them to push the ball on offense, straight into the hands of McCaffrey. That will work in his favor since the Packers are allowing 25.9 FanDuel points per game to running backs this season, the sixth-most in the league.
2. Saquon Barkley (RB2) - Barkley had a lackluster game against the Dallas Cowboys, but he can forget about that rather quickly since he is taking on the New York Jets, who are allowing 21.8 FanDuel points per game to running backs. We have him projected for the third-most rushing attempts and the most targets among running backs.
3. Alvin Kamara (RB3) - Kamara is set to be back in the lineup this week for the New Orleans Saints, and it's a fantastic spot. The Saints own the slate's highest team total at 32 points, along with being 13.0-point home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are allowing slightly more than 20 FanDuel points per game to running backs, and with Kamara projected for more than 20 touches, he should feast in this game environment.
4. Aaron Jones (RB4) - Jones is on the other side of CMC, and we could be looking at a game in which both running backs score more than 20 FanDuel points. The Panthers are flat out horrible versus running backs this season, allowing 14 touchdowns and 26.0 FanDuel points per game.
5. Marlon Mack (RB5) - Mack has our highest projection when it comes to rushing attempts, sitting at 20.89. This is for a few reasons, one of which is the fact he is up against the lowly Miami Dolphins, a team we have attacked every single week. The Colts are strong 10.5-point home favorites, which should put them in a spot to control the ball and feed Mack.
6. Nick Chubb (RB6) - The Buffalo Bills have a strong pass defense, but they are allowing more than 20 FanDuel points per game to running backs. This means the Cleveland Browns and Chubb will likely be attacking Buffalo on the ground, which should help Chubb reach his 15.3 FanDuel-point projection.
7. Derrick Henry (RB9) - Henry falls into the third tier this week, not due to his volume -- projected for the fifth-most touches -- but the overall game environment. The Tennessee Titans are home underdogs with a low 22.0-point implied team total. If they fall behind, we will see less of Henry, since he plays no role in the passing game.
8. Mark Ingram (RB11) - The Cincinnati Bengals are allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game to running backs this season, so on a weekly basis, we are attacking them with whoever is on the other side. This week it happens to be Ingram, who doesn't have the volume the other running backs have -- hence being in the third-tier -- but the matchup is amazing.
9. Devonta Freeman (RB12) - Freeman has the seventh-highest projection for targets when it comes to running backs. That shouldn't be a surprise since the Falcons are large underdogs versus the Saints. They will likely be playing from behind and should need to pass the ball, which is where Freeman will be able to find his value.
1. Michael Thomas (WR1) - Can you guard Michael Thomas? No. Can't Guard Mike. The best receiver in the league, on the team with the highest implied team total, with the second-highest over/under. He has the highest target projection, the most yards, and a points projection a full three points higher than the next wide receiver, per our numbers.
2. Mike Evans (WR2) - Is it a Mike Evans week or a Chris Godwin week? That is the question everyone is asking in NFL DFS these days, so why not both? Evans has a higher projection when it comes to targets, but Godwin has a higher receptions projection. They are up against the Arizona Cardinals, who are allowing 30.8 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.
3. Davante Adams (WR4) - Adams returned last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, and had 11 targets -- which is great -- but only 7.6 FanDuel points. He can turn that around this week as the Packers have a 26.0-point implied team total against the Panthers, who allow the ninth-most FanDuel points to wide receivers.
4. Tyreek Hill (WR3) - Hill had a solid game last week with 23.5 FanDuel points and didn't even have Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. It's not clear if Mahomes will play this week, but you can go to Hill for fantasy points on a weekly basis regardless of who is throwing him the ball.
5. Chris Godwin (WR5) - As with Mike Evans above, Godwin is in a great spot, just a matter of it being "his week" in terms of fantasy production. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the second-highest implied team total (28.25), and what was said for Evans holds true for Godwin.
6. Cooper Kupp (WR6) - With Brandin Cooks ruled out for this game, there should be more targets in the passing game for Kupp, who is already a fantasy monster this season. He has eight or more targets in seven of his eight games this season.
7. Julio Jones (WR7) - Historically, Jones is great against the Saints in terms of yards per game. He averages 93 receiving yards per content versus New Orleans in 15 career matchups. He only has three touchdowns in that span, though, which has him just a bit lower this week.
8. Christian Kirk (WR8) - If there is anytime to buy in on Kirk in DFS, this is the spot. He is up against the Buccaneers, who allowing the most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season. He has the highest percentage of air yards on the Cardinals, who carry an implied team total of 23.75 this week.
9. Golden Tate (WR9) - Do we love the idea of watching the New York Jets play the New York Giants? No. But Tate offers plenty of fantasy appeal since we are unsure if Sterling Shepard will play. The Jets are giving up the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.
We all know you should be prioritizing elite running backs and receivers over taking a quarterback in season-long fantasy, and that should be the same here. This week, there are five quarterbacks who we have projected to score from 18.8 to 22.1 FanDuel points, and another three projected at 17.4 to 18.4. At a certain point, it can be splitting hairs and essentially comes down to personal preference, but know that you will be in a good spot at quarterback this week.
1. Lamar Jackson (QB1) - Jackson posted another multi-touchdown game last week and is in line for that again this week. He is facing the lowly Bengals, who are allowing 22 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. This is such a lopsided game that the Ravens are on the road but have a 26.50 implied team total and are 9.5-point favorites.
2. Kyler Murray (QB3) - As of now, Patrick Mahomes has a higher projection compared to Murray, but we can't put Mahomes in here since there is no confirmed report he is playing or not. Murray and the Cardinals are in a game in which the over/under is set at 52.00 points -- the highest on the slate -- and are facing a terrible Bucs pass defense. We are looking at a clear shootout-type game where reaching 23 FanDuel points -- what the Buccaneers allow to quarterbacks, on average -- looks likely for Kyler.
3. Jameis Winston (QB 4) - The second-highest implied team total of the week sits with Tampa Bay (28.25). If we are looking at Evans and Godwin as being top receivers this week, we need Winston to post big numbers. He is projected for a touch more than two passing touchdowns -- one of only three quarterbacks at that level.
4. Drew Brees (QB5) - Brees is back and putting up numbers, as he always does. There is no reason you shouldn't be targeting Brees this week, and pairing him with Michael Thomas could be the path to victory. The Falcons are allowing the third-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks this season. It's easy: pick Brees.
5. Aaron Rodgers (QB6) - Rodgers laid an egg last week, but he's now back at home with an implied team total set at 26.00, a perfect bounce-back opportunity. The Panthers are allowing only 16.5 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, which is around the league average, but he can easily exceed that.
6. Daniel Jones (QB7) - Danny Dimes gets his first shot at his cross-stadium rivals, the Jets. Both defenses are so bad we could see this turn into a sloppy shootout, and given the fact Jones has some solid upside, which he showed versus the Detroit Lions two weeks ago (300 yards and four touchdowns), he could feast on the Jets.
7. Jared Goff (QB8) - There have always been concerns about Goff's home/road splits, but he has 16 or more FanDuel points in three of his four road games this season. I think we can put that to rest, especially with Todd Gurley running the ball at less this season.
8. Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB10) - I guess Fitzpatrick is good this week? The Indianapolis Colts are right around the league average in terms of FanDuel points allowed to quarterbacks, and Fitzpatrick has thrown for five touchdowns over his last two games. Only for deeper drafts.
9. Ryan Tannehill (QB11) - Tannehill has 19 or more FanDuel points in three straight games and could easily continue that versus the Kansas City Chiefs, who are the 10th worst in the league versus quarterbacks this season.