4 DraftKings Studs to Target in Week 10
Week 10 of the NFL season is here, so let's see which high-priced studs stand out on DraftKings and project to be high-end performers, according to our models.
DraftKings Price: $6,700
Projected Points: 20.6
If you didn't believe that Drew Brees was fully healthy heading into Week 8, now that he's coming off a bye, there should be zero concerns. He has played two full games this season and has 743 passing yards and five touchdowns while averaging 26.9 DraftKings points. Brees currently ranks first in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back amongst all quarterbacks with 90 or more drop backs. Heading into Week 10, the New Orleans Saints own the highest implied total at 32.00, which is a full 5.25 points more than the next closest team.
The matchup this week for Brees can't be any better against the Atlanta Falcons, who trail only the Miami Dolphins versus the pass, per our schedule-adjusted numbers. Atlanta has given up the third most passing touchdowns and have yielded an average of 24.9 DraftKings points to opposing signal callers. Over the Falcons current six-game losing streak, quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 DraftKings points against them. Brees sets up to be one of the top quarterback plays in Week 10.
DraftKings Price: $10,500
Projected Points: 25.1
Christian McCaffrey has officially broken fantasy football, and in particular, DraftKings scoring models. He has topped 30 DraftKings points in six of the eight games played, including three games with 40 or more points. This guy has explosive ability, owning three touchdown runs of 40 or more yards, while also hauling in a 25-yard touchdown through the air. He is averaging 25.9 touches per game and rans second amongst all running backs in Total NEP.
The Carolina Panthers are on the road this week as a 5.5-point underdog against the Green Bay Packers. While Carolina owns one of the lower team totals of the week, we have seen McCaffrey produce no matter what the situation is, scoring 30.5 and 33.9 DK points in two of the three games the Panthers scored 17 or fewer points. Green Bay has been absolutely gashed by opposing running backs, having allowed the second most rushing touchdowns and ranking next to last against the run by our metrics. McCaffrey yet again is the top running back play this week.
DraftKings Price: $8,300
Projected Points: 22.4
Another cheat code for DraftKings scoring is using Michael Thomas. He owns a 83.9% catch rate on 236 targets over the last two seasons, which pans out to be roughly 8.3 receptions per game. He currently owns a 30.9% target share and has a 39.5% share of the New Orleans Saints air yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
This week's Saints-Falcons game is tied for the highest total of the week at 51.0 points, and Thomas looks poised to take advantage of the porous Atlanta secondary, a unit that has allowed an average of 42.9 DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers. This is a division matchup, so Thomas has a solid sample size versus Atlanta, and in six career games against them, he averages 7.5 receptions, 96.2 receiving yards, and 0.5 touchdowns. Our projections see Thomas as the runaway top option at receiver, with a DK points projection 4.5 points higher than the WR2.
DraftKings Price: $5,300
Projected Points: 13.0
The Baltimore Ravens showcased their rushing attack to the world on primetime TV last week, which put Mark Andrews at his lowest snap count of the season. Look for that snap count to rise in Week 10 as the Ravens are 9.5-point favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals and own an implied team total of 27.50. Prior to last week, Andrews had not seen fewer than seven targets in a game while owning 26.9% target share from Lamar Jackson. Also, in a game in which Baltimore is expected to put up points, know that Andrews leads the team in red zone targets.
The Bengals have given up fantasy production to everyone this year, and that shouldn't change in Week 10. These teams squared off back in Week 6, and Andrews posted six grabs for 99 yards on his way to 14.9 DraftKings points. The rest of the tight end stats against the Bengals make them look stingy, but they have not faced teams besides Baltimore that heavily involve tight ends. Our projections like Andrews to bounce back this week and compete for the top spot at the position.
Adam Nessel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Adam Nessel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ANessel01. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.