FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10 Thursday Night
It should be a tight affair. The Chargers are 1.5-point road favorites, and our models see the Bolts prevailing in a close one, 23.03-22.49. The betting public is backing LA, with 70% of the money on the spread coming in on the Chargers, per oddsFire. Another noteworthy thing is that we see just 45.52 points being scored in this one, which is a fair bit lower than the 48.5 Vegas total.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers ($14,000)
Philip Rivers is $500 cheaper than Derek Carr, but our projections have Rivers scoring 3.2 more FanDuel points than the Raiders' signal caller. Given the salaries and how much the betting public likes LA tonight, it's a safe bet that Rivers will be the higher-owned quarterback.
This is a really nice matchup for the Bolts' offense. Per our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Raiders have the league's fourth-worst overall defense and fourth-worst pass D, and they are allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks.
Projected for a slate-best 18.8 FanDuel points according to our models, 2.9 more than anyone else, Rivers is a solid MVP play, and he has a few nice stacking partners.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders ($14,500)
Josh Jacobs is tied with Carr, his quarterback, as the most expensive player on the slate, and he's a great way to get exposure to this Oakland offense.
Our models really like Jacobs tonight, and it's easy to see why. The rookie runner has at least 15 carries in each of the last five games, and he's got at least two catches in four of those games, helping him in negative game scripts. If you're building a lineup with the idea that the Raiders win, Jacobs is pretty much a must have since he has 28 and 26 carries in Oakland's last two victories, scoring a pair of rushing touchdowns in each.
The Chargers have been a run-funnel D this season. They're surrendering the seventh-fewest FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (14.3) while giving up the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (23.1).
We have Jacobs projected for 15.9 FanDuel points, and he should offer a solid floor unless the Raiders get behind big early.
Darren Waller, TE, Raiders ($12,000)
This is a pretty modest price to pay for a team's top pass-catcher.
Darren Waller has 60 targets this year -- no other Oakland player has more than 37 -- and he's gotten at least seven targets in six of eight games. One of this year's breakout players, Waller has shown off a big-time ceiling with outputs of 20.6 and 28.1 FanDuel points. He has been especially busy in Oakland's losses, seeing target counts of 7, 14, 8 and 8 in their four defeats.
With Casey Hayward likely matched up with Tyrell Williams on the outside, Waller could be in line for plenty of looks today, and if you think Oakland loses this game, it makes a ton of sense to use Waller.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers ($11,000)
This is a real friendly price for Keenan Allen, who is just the eighth-most expensive player on the slate. Of course, his salary is where it is because he hasn't scored more than 8.8 FanDuel points in any of his last six games.
But his recent cold stretch started after a 37.1-point outburst in Week 3, and he put up 22.3 and 13.8 FanDuel points in the two games prior to that one. He's been seeing solid volume lately, too. While he got just 4 targets in a super positive game script in Week 9, he had 11 and 10 looks in the two previous contests. For the season, he's seen 84 looks across nine games, the fifth-most targets in the league.
This is a get-right spot for Allen as Oakland is allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (35.8). We project Allen for 13.7 FanDuel points, making him the second-best point-per-dollar value of the night (behind only his signal caller), and he's a great stacking partner with Rivers.
Michael Badgley, K, Chargers ($9,000)
With our models forecasting this game for just a touch more than 45 points, the kickers are firmly in play. Our models have Michael Badgley pegged for 9.2 FanDuel points, 1.1 more than Oakland kicker Daniel Carlson. Badgley scored 16.0 FanDuel points last week in his season debut, hitting four of five field goals. He made 15 of 16 field goals in 2018, including 6 of 7 from 40-plus.