The 3 Most Popular NFL Bets for Week 9
In Week 8, the public went 2-0 with a push on their three most popular betting lines. While the Seattle Seahawks pushed on the seven-point spread, the under confidently hit in their matchup against the Matt Ryan-less Atlanta Falcons, and the Los Angeles Rams took care of business against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Sunday and Monday provide plenty more opportunities to get in on the action at FanDuel Sportsbook. This week, we have another 13 games on tap (one on Sunday morning in London). Among them, only one checks in with a double-digit spread while two bear an over/under of at least 50 points.
But which games and lines are getting the most action? Thanks to numberFire's new oddsFire tool, we can see exactly that -- where the public is laying the most bets, and what percentage of money is on which team and which side of the total.
Using oddsFire as our guide, let's dive into the three lines (one spread, one moneyline, one over/under) getting the most love, with the goal of deciding whether the numbers support or contradict the public's heavy investment.
One of the more closely-matched and difficult-to-determine games happens to be one the public seems set on. For this week's tilt in Los Angeles, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have been backed by 96% of bets with 97% of the money on their side of this 3.5-point spread. The home Chargers are getting no love.
As a matter of fact, the opening line has moved from 3.0 (-116) to where it is now at -110 odds. That means a Packers win will return $91 on any $100 bet.
In these teams' last seven head-to-heads, the Packers are 7-0 and have covered the points in six of those seven, according to Killer Sports. More importantly, though, this year's Packers are 6-2 against the spread and 4-2 when favored on the spread line. However, in the three games they have been favored by 3.0 or 3.5, they are just 2-1 with a 1-2 record against the points.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are just 2-5-1 against the spread. At home, they are 0-3-1, and going back to 2018, they are 5-3 against the spread as underdogs. Which trend will give?
As we noted, this one's tough. Ultimately, it could hinge on the health of wideout Davante Adams. The Packers are probably the correct lean, but the public shouldn't have as much confidence as they do.
The Packers' divisional foe, the Detroit Lions, is on the opposite side of things as road underdogs to the Oakland Raiders. For this inter-conference matchup, the Raiders are favored by two points and have held steady at that number over at FanDuel Sportsbook. They have also seen their moneyline odds get shorter, moving to -138 (from -129).
Still, the public doesn't have much faith in the Raiders. Instead, they are opting for the more lucrative bet on the underdogs, who have moved from +110 at the open to a line that returns a total of $210 on a successful $100 bet. A whopping 91% of the bets and 83% of the money are on Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay and crew.
It just so happens that the two teams are right next to one another in our power rankings, with Oakland 21st and Detroit 22nd. The gap is narrow, so that might explain the love for Detroit when you consider the odds.
Recent history tells us not to trust Matt Patricia's Lions. Since the beginning of last year, they are 9-13-1 overall and 5-11 as underdogs. They are 2-6 as road underdogs, including a 1-1 record this year. With a 3.5-point line against them, they lost three weeks ago to the Packers in Green Bay.
At the same time, Oakland -- under Jon Gruden -- is 7-16 in 23 games. They are 4-5 at home, though they have lost by 5.1 points per game in that sample. They have been favored just once, having won that game last year against the visiting Cleveland Browns.
Again, it's a tough line to deal with, but when you consider the value, it does make sense to roll with Detroit.
As we rewind back to that first game, the one the Packers are favored to win by both the books and the public, we see that bettors like this game to be high-scoring and approach the 50-point threshold. A slate-high 77% of the bets and 78% of the money are on the over, expecting this one to total at least 49 points between the offenses of Rodgers and Philip Rivers.
The Packers and Chargers have averaged 26.9 (seventh) and 19.6 points per game, respectively, while allowing 20.4 and 19.6 on the defensive end. Those figures alone would point you to the under, but what do this year's league-wide -- and team-specific -- trends have to say about it?
Through eight weeks, the under has hit in two of the three games with exactly a 48.5-point over/under. To increase the sample, when we parse through those with a total between 45.5 and 51.5, the over has hit at a 51.9% clip with teams averaging 48.4 points between them (coincidence?). When the away team has been favored, the under is at 57.1% with an average of 44.4 points per game. Five of the last seven such games have come up short of the oddsmakers' line.
This game originally opened at 46 points and has been bet up since, and still, some books are at 46.5 and 47.5. When you put everything together it's hard to see this one surpassing the total -- as much as we all would like to see it do so for entertainment and DFS purposes.