NFL

Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 8

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
25+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Deshaun Watson $8,400 23.6 42.8% 1.95 43.4% 29.2
Russell Wilson $8,600 23.1 36.6% 1.62 40.9% 28.4
Matthew Stafford $7,700 20.3 37.2% 1.37 27.9% 25.6
Jared Goff $8,000 19.6 29.6% 0.90 24.8% 24.9
Josh Allen $7,700 19.1 30.3% 0.97 22.1% 24.2
Tom Brady $7,900 18.9 25.9% 0.76 20.0% 24.0
Kyler Murray $7,400 18.1 29.7% 0.90 17.3% 23.1
Jameis Winston $7,400 17.6 27.1% 0.76 16.7% 22.6
Jacoby Brissett $7,500 17.4 22.9% 0.61 14.7% 22.0
Gardner Minshew II $6,900 17.1 31.5% 0.93 14.0% 22.3
Ryan Tannehill $6,900 17.0 35.1% 1.12 15.8% 22.6
Derek Carr $6,900 16.9 32.5% 0.96 14.4% 22.3
Daniel Jones $7,000 16.8 30.0% 0.90 13.7% 22.3
Teddy Bridgewater $7,500 16.7 22.8% 0.56 13.6% 22.0
Carson Wentz $7,400 16.2 20.7% 0.49 12.6% 21.1
Mitchell Trubisky $6,700 16.1 32.1% 0.90 11.9% 21.6
Jimmy Garoppolo $7,400 16.1 21.6% 0.52 11.3% 21.4
Matt Ryan $7,600 15.8 16.2% 0.34 9.1% 20.1
Andy Dalton $6,900 15.6 25.6% 0.63 11.3% 21.0
Philip Rivers $7,300 15.3 17.8% 0.39 9.1% 20.1
Drew Brees $7,200 14.2 17.1% 0.36 7.4% 19.4
Sam Darnold $7,400 14.0 12.9% 0.23 6.5% 18.7
Kyle Allen $7,000 13.8 16.7% 0.32 6.5% 18.7
Joe Flacco $6,500 13.7 21.5% 0.46 7.2% 18.7
Baker Mayfield $7,300 13.2 11.6% 0.20 5.0% 18.4


Cash-Game Standouts
- Deshaun Watson ($8,400) is the top play on the board considering his price in a spot against the Oakland Raiders. The sims also like Russell Wilson ($8,600 as a top-three play overall, but I'd be siding with Watson in a cash game, given Wilson's game script concerns.

Matthew Stafford ($7,700) is also in the top-tier this week and would be the first place I look after Watson. The simulations agree, which helps.

Ryan Tannehill ($6,900) and Josh Allen ($7,700) round out the top five in boom/bust ratio -- so solid games relative to dud games, a pretty decent cash-game mentality -- but won't find their way into my rosters outside of tournaments. Gardner Minshew ($6,900) is fourth in overall value and would be my preference below $7,000.

Tournament Standouts
- With value at running back, we can look to raw upside at the position. The two priciest options -- Watson and Wilson -- essentially lap the field in percentage of games in the simulations with at least 25.0 FanDuel points. Stafford and Allen also stand out there.

Two more volatile options who offer high sheer upside are Jared Goff ($8,000) and Tom Brady ($7,900). They should go very under the radar this week with the more obvious plays at similar positions. Frankly, ownership at quarterback is generally flat, and that'll especially be true on a 12-game slate.

Kyler Murray ($7,400) should be in the tournament consideration set in a bounce-back week.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
20+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Christian McCaffrey $9,600 20.8 24.4% 0.55 52.3% 28.5
Leonard Fournette $7,700 18.8 34.7% 0.97 47.8% 25.6
Saquon Barkley $8,600 18.3 22.6% 0.51 45.2% 25.2
Alvin Kamara $8,100 17.7 18.2% 0.44 36.8% 22.7
Chris Carson $8,000 17.3 25.2% 0.58 39.0% 24.0
Todd Gurley II $7,400 16.5 26.5% 0.58 35.2% 22.8
Le'Veon Bell $7,000 16.0 27.3% 0.64 31.3% 21.8
Nick Chubb $7,700 15.1 20.8% 0.42 30.1% 21.6
Derrick Henry $6,900 14.6 26.5% 0.61 28.8% 21.2
Devonta Freeman $6,200 13.6 27.9% 0.64 21.8% 19.4
Marlon Mack $6,800 13.4 22.1% 0.45 23.4% 19.6
Sony Michel $6,500 13.3 22.7% 0.48 21.4% 18.9
Ty Johnson $5,200 12.3 36.7% 0.95 17.0% 18.0
Phillip Lindsay $6,300 12.1 18.0% 0.34 14.2% 17.2
Chase Edmonds $6,100 11.9 16.5% 0.30 11.0% 16.0
Josh Jacobs $7,200 11.9 6.1% 0.10 10.2% 16.3
James White $6,000 11.7 19.3% 0.38 12.4% 16.6
Tevin Coleman $6,200 11.7 19.9% 0.38 15.5% 17.3
Melvin Gordon III $6,400 11.3 16.5% 0.29 13.0% 16.7
Austin Ekeler $6,800 11.3 10.2% 0.17 11.3% 16.2
Carlos Hyde $6,100 11.0 16.2% 0.30 10.9% 16.2
David Montgomery $5,700 10.9 22.1% 0.43 13.6% 16.3
Royce Freeman $5,700 10.5 17.6% 0.33 10.2% 15.2
Joe Mixon $6,000 10.3 14.2% 0.24 8.9% 14.9
Latavius Murray $6,200 9.9 11.3% 0.18 8.1% 14.9
Matt Breida $5,300 9.0 18.5% 0.33 6.0% 14.2
Tarik Cohen $5,400 8.9 14.7% 0.24 4.5% 13.8
Jordan Howard $6,000 8.9 9.4% 0.14 4.6% 13.7
Frank Gore $5,600 8.8 10.9% 0.17 4.0% 13.4
Duke Johnson $5,300 8.3 11.6% 0.17 3.3% 12.2
Miles Sanders $5,800 7.8 6.5% 0.09 2.8% 12.1
David Johnson $6,800 7.5 2.7% 0.03 3.1% 11.9
J.D. McKissic $5,400 7.2 10.2% 0.15 3.5% 11.8
Devin Singletary $5,400 7.2 7.8% 0.11 2.5% 11.5
Ronald Jones II $5,600 7.2 7.7% 0.11 2.4% 11.7
Peyton Barber $5,300 6.8 6.9% 0.09 1.6% 10.8
Darrell Henderson Jr. $5,600 6.0 4.2% 0.05 1.6% 10.1


Cash-Game Standouts
- I'll get this out of the way: Christian McCaffrey ($9,600) is not a full cash-game lock this week given his price relative to the rest of the backs, but I'm still leaning toward fitting him in. The San Francisco 49ers are stingy on defense, but McCaffrey's workload is immense, and San Francisco is 11th in Rushing Success Rate and 15th in Target Success Rate allowed to backs.

The top cash-game plays this week shape up to be Leonard Fournette ($7,700), Ty Johnson ($5,200), and Devonta Freeman ($6,200). Freeman's status is entirely dependent on Matt Ryan's health, but without Ito Smith, Freeman could see a workhorse role at a cheap tag in a potential shootout.

Le'Veon Bell ($7,000) and Derrick Henry ($6,900) round out the top five. I like Bell fine, but for cash games, I'd rather look to the backs just beneath them: Todd Gurley ($7,400), Chris Carson ($8,000), McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley ($8,600).

Tournament Standouts
- Again, value at the position creates salary cap freedom, so we can look to raw points upside at running back. McCaffrey, Fournette, and Barkley still have the highest realistic ceilings (measured roughly by their 75th-percentile outcomes). The top eight by this measure cost at least $7,000.

Of course, all of this can change with more news about David Johnson and his impact on Chase Edmonds ($6,100), as well as Alvin Kamara ($8,100) with regards to Latavius Murray ($6,200). This is a hard week to project before Sunday morning.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Michael Thomas $8,500 18.8 62.3% 2.70 69.9% 25.2
DeAndre Hopkins $8,200 17.2 54.6% 1.89 60.4% 23.1
Julio Jones $7,800 15.5 51.6% 1.67 55.1% 21.6
Tyler Lockett $7,200 14.7 49.7% 1.48 47.4% 20.5
Chris Godwin $8,100 14.7 43.0% 1.08 48.1% 19.8
Cooper Kupp $7,700 14.1 43.3% 1.20 44.9% 19.3
Kenny Golladay $6,700 13.5 49.1% 1.37 41.8% 18.8
Julian Edelman $6,600 13.3 51.0% 1.55 40.2% 18.6
T.Y. Hilton $7,600 13.2 37.0% 0.91 38.3% 18.3
Mike Evans $7,400 13.2 40.7% 0.97 39.9% 18.5
Allen Robinson II $7,100 12.6 39.7% 0.99 35.8% 17.3
Marvin Jones Jr. $6,300 12.3 46.4% 1.28 32.8% 16.6
Courtland Sutton $6,000 12.2 54.3% 1.79 36.8% 17.4
Keenan Allen $7,500 12.2 35.9% 0.80 35.9% 17.5
Robert Woods $7,000 12.0 41.5% 0.97 36.3% 17.8
Tyler Boyd $5,600 11.9 56.5% 1.96 35.8% 17.0
Odell Beckham Jr. $7,400 11.9 34.0% 0.74 32.9% 16.8
DJ Chark Jr. $6,300 11.4 43.9% 1.12 31.3% 16.6
John Brown $5,900 11.4 50.7% 1.55 32.7% 16.5
Calvin Ridley $5,400 11.0 51.5% 1.53 29.7% 15.9
Golden Tate $6,100 10.9 42.2% 1.07 25.6% 15.1
Brandin Cooks $6,900 10.8 36.8% 0.79 30.5% 16.1
Kenny Stills $5,700 10.6 44.9% 1.11 26.4% 15.4
Larry Fitzgerald $5,400 10.6 50.0% 1.42 26.9% 15.4
DK Metcalf $6,600 10.5 37.7% 0.87 27.6% 15.6
Alshon Jeffery $6,600 10.1 33.1% 0.66 24.3% 14.8
DJ Moore $5,500 10.1 43.8% 1.08 23.8% 14.7
Tyrell Williams $5,900 9.9 41.4% 1.00 21.7% 14.5
Dede Westbrook $5,800 9.9 42.2% 1.02 25.9% 15.1
Corey Davis $5,500 9.6 40.1% 0.91 20.7% 14.1
Jarvis Landry $6,400 9.2 30.1% 0.59 19.0% 13.9
Jamison Crowder $5,800 9.2 35.3% 0.72 20.1% 13.8
Curtis Samuel $5,800 9.1 36.0% 0.73 18.2% 13.8
Auden Tate $5,400 8.8 37.8% 0.82 16.9% 13.0
Christian Kirk $5,600 8.8 32.3% 0.68 14.9% 12.8
Cole Beasley $5,600 8.8 33.6% 0.67 15.8% 12.8
Mike Williams $5,700 8.6 31.5% 0.63 16.6% 12.7
Robby Anderson $6,200 8.5 24.9% 0.44 13.3% 12.4
A.J. Brown $5,500 8.5 35.0% 0.74 14.0% 12.7
Phillip Dorsett II $5,600 8.4 30.3% 0.57 14.7% 12.3
Danny Amendola $5,800 8.3 30.9% 0.60 14.0% 12.8
Alex Erickson $5,500 7.9 33.7% 0.65 13.3% 12.5
Keke Coutee $5,100 7.8 35.9% 0.74 13.7% 12.3
Ted Ginn Jr. $5,300 7.8 33.8% 0.72 12.1% 11.8
Adam Humphries $5,100 7.7 34.0% 0.68 10.9% 11.8
Emmanuel Sanders $5,400 7.4 25.1% 0.45 8.0% 10.8
DaeSean Hamilton $4,800 7.3 36.5% 0.76 11.2% 11.9
Demaryius Thomas $4,800 7.1 36.0% 0.74 9.7% 11.4
Darius Slayton $5,200 7.1 30.3% 0.57 10.0% 11.5
Jaron Brown $5,100 6.6 30.1% 0.55 10.8% 11.1
Chris Conley $5,100 6.4 26.7% 0.47 7.6% 10.4
Mohamed Sanu $5,100 6.1 22.5% 0.37 4.9% 9.8
Nelson Agholor $5,100 6.0 24.5% 0.42 6.2% 10.1


Cash-Game Standouts
- In a surprising twist, three pricey receivers grade out as top-five plays in terms of boom/bust ratio this week: Michael Thomas ($8,500), DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200), and Julio Jones ($7,800). Tyler Boyd ($5,600) and Courtland Sutton ($6,000) are also in there.

While the simulations don't mind spending up at the position -- and we can do so with the running back value -- we still should be prioritizing the expensive running backs for cash games. That's especially the case with Julian Edelman ($6,600), Calvin Ridley ($5,400), and Kenny Golladay ($6,700) at relatively cheap prices.

Tournament Standouts
- Where the value running backs can really help is in our attempt to afford stud receivers who can blow up with a modicum of predictability. The four receivers with a 20-point 75th-percentile outcome are Thomas, Hopkins, Jones, and Tyler Lockett ($7,200). The most likely receivers to get to 20 FanDuel points are those four plus Chris Godwin ($8,100), Cooper Kupp ($7,700), and Golladay ($6,700).

The top 10 receivers in value (FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary) when using 75th-percentile outcomes are Boyd, Michael Thomas, Ridley, Sutton, Lockett, Larry Fitzgerald ($5,400), Hopkins, Edelman, Golladay, and John Brown ($5,900).

Tight End

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Darren Waller $6,800 12.8 46.8% 1.33 40.3% 18.0
George Kittle $6,900 11.9 40.1% 0.96 33.4% 16.4
Austin Hooper $6,600 11.7 43.9% 1.23 34.3% 17.2
Evan Engram $6,300 11.4 42.9% 1.06 30.6% 16.4
Zach Ertz $6,300 10.4 35.6% 0.79 23.9% 14.7
Hunter Henry $6,700 9.7 28.1% 0.55 21.3% 14.2
Greg Olsen $5,500 7.7 28.2% 0.51 13.3% 11.7
Gerald Everett $6,100 7.3 21.0% 0.33 9.8% 11.3
T.J. Hockenson $5,300 7.2 30.4% 0.56 10.7% 11.7
Delanie Walker $5,200 6.6 22.5% 0.39 4.9% 9.9
Jared Cook $5,800 6.4 14.5% 0.22 3.8% 9.7
Eric Ebron $5,400 6.3 22.1% 0.36 6.2% 10.4
Jack Doyle $4,900 5.9 22.6% 0.37 5.1% 9.4
O.J. Howard $5,000 5.9 21.7% 0.35 3.8% 9.6
Dawson Knox $4,600 5.5 25.6% 0.43 5.9% 9.4
Noah Fant $4,500 5.5 25.2% 0.42 3.7% 9.1
Dallas Goedert $4,800 5.3 20.0% 0.31 2.0% 8.8
Trey Burton $4,800 5.2 20.8% 0.32 4.1% 8.8
Darren Fells $5,100 5.2 17.2% 0.25 2.6% 8.7
Jonnu Smith $4,900 5.0 17.9% 0.27 3.1% 8.5


Cash-Game Standouts
As always, it's the spendy tight ends who offer the safest relative floor at the position. The top cash-game plays (measured by boom/bust ratio) are Darren Waller ($6,800), Austin Hooper ($6,600), Evan Engram ($6,300), George Kittle ($6,900), and Zach Ertz ($6,300). T.J. Hockenson ($5,300) is sixth. I'm gravitating toward Engram.

Tournament Standouts
As always, the tight ends with the higher floors due to targets and yardage and not being touchdown-dependent also boast the top-tier raw projections. Waller, Hooper, Engram, Kittle, Ertz, and Hunter Henry ($6,700) have 75th-percentile outcomes of at least 14.0 FanDuel points.

Cheaper plays worth eyeing are Hockenson, Noah Fant ($4,500), Eric Ebron ($5,400), and Jack Doyle ($4,900).