Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 8
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
25+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deshaun Watson | $8,400 | 23.6 | 42.8% | 1.95 | 43.4% | 29.2 |
Russell Wilson | $8,600 | 23.1 | 36.6% | 1.62 | 40.9% | 28.4 |
Matthew Stafford | $7,700 | 20.3 | 37.2% | 1.37 | 27.9% | 25.6 |
Jared Goff | $8,000 | 19.6 | 29.6% | 0.90 | 24.8% | 24.9 |
Josh Allen | $7,700 | 19.1 | 30.3% | 0.97 | 22.1% | 24.2 |
Tom Brady | $7,900 | 18.9 | 25.9% | 0.76 | 20.0% | 24.0 |
Kyler Murray | $7,400 | 18.1 | 29.7% | 0.90 | 17.3% | 23.1 |
Jameis Winston | $7,400 | 17.6 | 27.1% | 0.76 | 16.7% | 22.6 |
Jacoby Brissett | $7,500 | 17.4 | 22.9% | 0.61 | 14.7% | 22.0 |
Gardner Minshew II | $6,900 | 17.1 | 31.5% | 0.93 | 14.0% | 22.3 |
Ryan Tannehill | $6,900 | 17.0 | 35.1% | 1.12 | 15.8% | 22.6 |
Derek Carr | $6,900 | 16.9 | 32.5% | 0.96 | 14.4% | 22.3 |
Daniel Jones | $7,000 | 16.8 | 30.0% | 0.90 | 13.7% | 22.3 |
Teddy Bridgewater | $7,500 | 16.7 | 22.8% | 0.56 | 13.6% | 22.0 |
Carson Wentz | $7,400 | 16.2 | 20.7% | 0.49 | 12.6% | 21.1 |
Mitchell Trubisky | $6,700 | 16.1 | 32.1% | 0.90 | 11.9% | 21.6 |
Jimmy Garoppolo | $7,400 | 16.1 | 21.6% | 0.52 | 11.3% | 21.4 |
Matt Ryan | $7,600 | 15.8 | 16.2% | 0.34 | 9.1% | 20.1 |
Andy Dalton | $6,900 | 15.6 | 25.6% | 0.63 | 11.3% | 21.0 |
Philip Rivers | $7,300 | 15.3 | 17.8% | 0.39 | 9.1% | 20.1 |
Drew Brees | $7,200 | 14.2 | 17.1% | 0.36 | 7.4% | 19.4 |
Sam Darnold | $7,400 | 14.0 | 12.9% | 0.23 | 6.5% | 18.7 |
Kyle Allen | $7,000 | 13.8 | 16.7% | 0.32 | 6.5% | 18.7 |
Joe Flacco | $6,500 | 13.7 | 21.5% | 0.46 | 7.2% | 18.7 |
Baker Mayfield | $7,300 | 13.2 | 11.6% | 0.20 | 5.0% | 18.4 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- Deshaun Watson ($8,400) is the top play on the board considering his price in a spot against the Oakland Raiders. The sims also like Russell Wilson ($8,600 as a top-three play overall, but I'd be siding with Watson in a cash game, given Wilson's game script concerns.
Matthew Stafford ($7,700) is also in the top-tier this week and would be the first place I look after Watson. The simulations agree, which helps.
Ryan Tannehill ($6,900) and Josh Allen ($7,700) round out the top five in boom/bust ratio -- so solid games relative to dud games, a pretty decent cash-game mentality -- but won't find their way into my rosters outside of tournaments. Gardner Minshew ($6,900) is fourth in overall value and would be my preference below $7,000.
Tournament Standouts
- With value at running back, we can look to raw upside at the position. The two priciest options -- Watson and Wilson -- essentially lap the field in percentage of games in the simulations with at least 25.0 FanDuel points. Stafford and Allen also stand out there.
Two more volatile options who offer high sheer upside are Jared Goff ($8,000) and Tom Brady ($7,900). They should go very under the radar this week with the more obvious plays at similar positions. Frankly, ownership at quarterback is generally flat, and that'll especially be true on a 12-game slate.
Kyler Murray ($7,400) should be in the tournament consideration set in a bounce-back week.
Running Back
Simulation Results
Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
20+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Christian McCaffrey | $9,600 | 20.8 | 24.4% | 0.55 | 52.3% | 28.5 |
Leonard Fournette | $7,700 | 18.8 | 34.7% | 0.97 | 47.8% | 25.6 |
Saquon Barkley | $8,600 | 18.3 | 22.6% | 0.51 | 45.2% | 25.2 |
Alvin Kamara | $8,100 | 17.7 | 18.2% | 0.44 | 36.8% | 22.7 |
Chris Carson | $8,000 | 17.3 | 25.2% | 0.58 | 39.0% | 24.0 |
Todd Gurley II | $7,400 | 16.5 | 26.5% | 0.58 | 35.2% | 22.8 |
Le'Veon Bell | $7,000 | 16.0 | 27.3% | 0.64 | 31.3% | 21.8 |
Nick Chubb | $7,700 | 15.1 | 20.8% | 0.42 | 30.1% | 21.6 |
Derrick Henry | $6,900 | 14.6 | 26.5% | 0.61 | 28.8% | 21.2 |
Devonta Freeman | $6,200 | 13.6 | 27.9% | 0.64 | 21.8% | 19.4 |
Marlon Mack | $6,800 | 13.4 | 22.1% | 0.45 | 23.4% | 19.6 |
Sony Michel | $6,500 | 13.3 | 22.7% | 0.48 | 21.4% | 18.9 |
Ty Johnson | $5,200 | 12.3 | 36.7% | 0.95 | 17.0% | 18.0 |
Phillip Lindsay | $6,300 | 12.1 | 18.0% | 0.34 | 14.2% | 17.2 |
Chase Edmonds | $6,100 | 11.9 | 16.5% | 0.30 | 11.0% | 16.0 |
Josh Jacobs | $7,200 | 11.9 | 6.1% | 0.10 | 10.2% | 16.3 |
James White | $6,000 | 11.7 | 19.3% | 0.38 | 12.4% | 16.6 |
Tevin Coleman | $6,200 | 11.7 | 19.9% | 0.38 | 15.5% | 17.3 |
Melvin Gordon III | $6,400 | 11.3 | 16.5% | 0.29 | 13.0% | 16.7 |
Austin Ekeler | $6,800 | 11.3 | 10.2% | 0.17 | 11.3% | 16.2 |
Carlos Hyde | $6,100 | 11.0 | 16.2% | 0.30 | 10.9% | 16.2 |
David Montgomery | $5,700 | 10.9 | 22.1% | 0.43 | 13.6% | 16.3 |
Royce Freeman | $5,700 | 10.5 | 17.6% | 0.33 | 10.2% | 15.2 |
Joe Mixon | $6,000 | 10.3 | 14.2% | 0.24 | 8.9% | 14.9 |
Latavius Murray | $6,200 | 9.9 | 11.3% | 0.18 | 8.1% | 14.9 |
Matt Breida | $5,300 | 9.0 | 18.5% | 0.33 | 6.0% | 14.2 |
Tarik Cohen | $5,400 | 8.9 | 14.7% | 0.24 | 4.5% | 13.8 |
Jordan Howard | $6,000 | 8.9 | 9.4% | 0.14 | 4.6% | 13.7 |
Frank Gore | $5,600 | 8.8 | 10.9% | 0.17 | 4.0% | 13.4 |
Duke Johnson | $5,300 | 8.3 | 11.6% | 0.17 | 3.3% | 12.2 |
Miles Sanders | $5,800 | 7.8 | 6.5% | 0.09 | 2.8% | 12.1 |
David Johnson | $6,800 | 7.5 | 2.7% | 0.03 | 3.1% | 11.9 |
J.D. McKissic | $5,400 | 7.2 | 10.2% | 0.15 | 3.5% | 11.8 |
Devin Singletary | $5,400 | 7.2 | 7.8% | 0.11 | 2.5% | 11.5 |
Ronald Jones II | $5,600 | 7.2 | 7.7% | 0.11 | 2.4% | 11.7 |
Peyton Barber | $5,300 | 6.8 | 6.9% | 0.09 | 1.6% | 10.8 |
Darrell Henderson Jr. | $5,600 | 6.0 | 4.2% | 0.05 | 1.6% | 10.1 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- I'll get this out of the way: Christian McCaffrey ($9,600) is not a full cash-game lock this week given his price relative to the rest of the backs, but I'm still leaning toward fitting him in. The San Francisco 49ers are stingy on defense, but McCaffrey's workload is immense, and San Francisco is 11th in Rushing Success Rate and 15th in Target Success Rate allowed to backs.
The top cash-game plays this week shape up to be Leonard Fournette ($7,700), Ty Johnson ($5,200), and Devonta Freeman ($6,200). Freeman's status is entirely dependent on Matt Ryan's health, but without Ito Smith, Freeman could see a workhorse role at a cheap tag in a potential shootout.
Le'Veon Bell ($7,000) and Derrick Henry ($6,900) round out the top five. I like Bell fine, but for cash games, I'd rather look to the backs just beneath them: Todd Gurley ($7,400), Chris Carson ($8,000), McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley ($8,600).
Tournament Standouts
- Again, value at the position creates salary cap freedom, so we can look to raw points upside at running back. McCaffrey, Fournette, and Barkley still have the highest realistic ceilings (measured roughly by their 75th-percentile outcomes). The top eight by this measure cost at least $7,000.
Of course, all of this can change with more news about David Johnson and his impact on Chase Edmonds ($6,100), as well as Alvin Kamara ($8,100) with regards to Latavius Murray ($6,200). This is a hard week to project before Sunday morning.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Thomas | $8,500 | 18.8 | 62.3% | 2.70 | 69.9% | 25.2 |
DeAndre Hopkins | $8,200 | 17.2 | 54.6% | 1.89 | 60.4% | 23.1 |
Julio Jones | $7,800 | 15.5 | 51.6% | 1.67 | 55.1% | 21.6 |
Tyler Lockett | $7,200 | 14.7 | 49.7% | 1.48 | 47.4% | 20.5 |
Chris Godwin | $8,100 | 14.7 | 43.0% | 1.08 | 48.1% | 19.8 |
Cooper Kupp | $7,700 | 14.1 | 43.3% | 1.20 | 44.9% | 19.3 |
Kenny Golladay | $6,700 | 13.5 | 49.1% | 1.37 | 41.8% | 18.8 |
Julian Edelman | $6,600 | 13.3 | 51.0% | 1.55 | 40.2% | 18.6 |
T.Y. Hilton | $7,600 | 13.2 | 37.0% | 0.91 | 38.3% | 18.3 |
Mike Evans | $7,400 | 13.2 | 40.7% | 0.97 | 39.9% | 18.5 |
Allen Robinson II | $7,100 | 12.6 | 39.7% | 0.99 | 35.8% | 17.3 |
Marvin Jones Jr. | $6,300 | 12.3 | 46.4% | 1.28 | 32.8% | 16.6 |
Courtland Sutton | $6,000 | 12.2 | 54.3% | 1.79 | 36.8% | 17.4 |
Keenan Allen | $7,500 | 12.2 | 35.9% | 0.80 | 35.9% | 17.5 |
Robert Woods | $7,000 | 12.0 | 41.5% | 0.97 | 36.3% | 17.8 |
Tyler Boyd | $5,600 | 11.9 | 56.5% | 1.96 | 35.8% | 17.0 |
Odell Beckham Jr. | $7,400 | 11.9 | 34.0% | 0.74 | 32.9% | 16.8 |
DJ Chark Jr. | $6,300 | 11.4 | 43.9% | 1.12 | 31.3% | 16.6 |
John Brown | $5,900 | 11.4 | 50.7% | 1.55 | 32.7% | 16.5 |
Calvin Ridley | $5,400 | 11.0 | 51.5% | 1.53 | 29.7% | 15.9 |
Golden Tate | $6,100 | 10.9 | 42.2% | 1.07 | 25.6% | 15.1 |
Brandin Cooks | $6,900 | 10.8 | 36.8% | 0.79 | 30.5% | 16.1 |
Kenny Stills | $5,700 | 10.6 | 44.9% | 1.11 | 26.4% | 15.4 |
Larry Fitzgerald | $5,400 | 10.6 | 50.0% | 1.42 | 26.9% | 15.4 |
DK Metcalf | $6,600 | 10.5 | 37.7% | 0.87 | 27.6% | 15.6 |
Alshon Jeffery | $6,600 | 10.1 | 33.1% | 0.66 | 24.3% | 14.8 |
DJ Moore | $5,500 | 10.1 | 43.8% | 1.08 | 23.8% | 14.7 |
Tyrell Williams | $5,900 | 9.9 | 41.4% | 1.00 | 21.7% | 14.5 |
Dede Westbrook | $5,800 | 9.9 | 42.2% | 1.02 | 25.9% | 15.1 |
Corey Davis | $5,500 | 9.6 | 40.1% | 0.91 | 20.7% | 14.1 |
Jarvis Landry | $6,400 | 9.2 | 30.1% | 0.59 | 19.0% | 13.9 |
Jamison Crowder | $5,800 | 9.2 | 35.3% | 0.72 | 20.1% | 13.8 |
Curtis Samuel | $5,800 | 9.1 | 36.0% | 0.73 | 18.2% | 13.8 |
Auden Tate | $5,400 | 8.8 | 37.8% | 0.82 | 16.9% | 13.0 |
Christian Kirk | $5,600 | 8.8 | 32.3% | 0.68 | 14.9% | 12.8 |
Cole Beasley | $5,600 | 8.8 | 33.6% | 0.67 | 15.8% | 12.8 |
Mike Williams | $5,700 | 8.6 | 31.5% | 0.63 | 16.6% | 12.7 |
Robby Anderson | $6,200 | 8.5 | 24.9% | 0.44 | 13.3% | 12.4 |
A.J. Brown | $5,500 | 8.5 | 35.0% | 0.74 | 14.0% | 12.7 |
Phillip Dorsett II | $5,600 | 8.4 | 30.3% | 0.57 | 14.7% | 12.3 |
Danny Amendola | $5,800 | 8.3 | 30.9% | 0.60 | 14.0% | 12.8 |
Alex Erickson | $5,500 | 7.9 | 33.7% | 0.65 | 13.3% | 12.5 |
Keke Coutee | $5,100 | 7.8 | 35.9% | 0.74 | 13.7% | 12.3 |
Ted Ginn Jr. | $5,300 | 7.8 | 33.8% | 0.72 | 12.1% | 11.8 |
Adam Humphries | $5,100 | 7.7 | 34.0% | 0.68 | 10.9% | 11.8 |
Emmanuel Sanders | $5,400 | 7.4 | 25.1% | 0.45 | 8.0% | 10.8 |
DaeSean Hamilton | $4,800 | 7.3 | 36.5% | 0.76 | 11.2% | 11.9 |
Demaryius Thomas | $4,800 | 7.1 | 36.0% | 0.74 | 9.7% | 11.4 |
Darius Slayton | $5,200 | 7.1 | 30.3% | 0.57 | 10.0% | 11.5 |
Jaron Brown | $5,100 | 6.6 | 30.1% | 0.55 | 10.8% | 11.1 |
Chris Conley | $5,100 | 6.4 | 26.7% | 0.47 | 7.6% | 10.4 |
Mohamed Sanu | $5,100 | 6.1 | 22.5% | 0.37 | 4.9% | 9.8 |
Nelson Agholor | $5,100 | 6.0 | 24.5% | 0.42 | 6.2% | 10.1 |
Cash-Game Standouts
- In a surprising twist, three pricey receivers grade out as top-five plays in terms of boom/bust ratio this week: Michael Thomas ($8,500), DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200), and Julio Jones ($7,800). Tyler Boyd ($5,600) and Courtland Sutton ($6,000) are also in there.
While the simulations don't mind spending up at the position -- and we can do so with the running back value -- we still should be prioritizing the expensive running backs for cash games. That's especially the case with Julian Edelman ($6,600), Calvin Ridley ($5,400), and Kenny Golladay ($6,700) at relatively cheap prices.
Tournament Standouts
- Where the value running backs can really help is in our attempt to afford stud receivers who can blow up with a modicum of predictability. The four receivers with a 20-point 75th-percentile outcome are Thomas, Hopkins, Jones, and Tyler Lockett ($7,200). The most likely receivers to get to 20 FanDuel points are those four plus Chris Godwin ($8,100), Cooper Kupp ($7,700), and Golladay ($6,700).
The top 10 receivers in value (FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary) when using 75th-percentile outcomes are Boyd, Michael Thomas, Ridley, Sutton, Lockett, Larry Fitzgerald ($5,400), Hopkins, Edelman, Golladay, and John Brown ($5,900).
Tight End
Simulation Results
Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darren Waller | $6,800 | 12.8 | 46.8% | 1.33 | 40.3% | 18.0 |
George Kittle | $6,900 | 11.9 | 40.1% | 0.96 | 33.4% | 16.4 |
Austin Hooper | $6,600 | 11.7 | 43.9% | 1.23 | 34.3% | 17.2 |
Evan Engram | $6,300 | 11.4 | 42.9% | 1.06 | 30.6% | 16.4 |
Zach Ertz | $6,300 | 10.4 | 35.6% | 0.79 | 23.9% | 14.7 |
Hunter Henry | $6,700 | 9.7 | 28.1% | 0.55 | 21.3% | 14.2 |
Greg Olsen | $5,500 | 7.7 | 28.2% | 0.51 | 13.3% | 11.7 |
Gerald Everett | $6,100 | 7.3 | 21.0% | 0.33 | 9.8% | 11.3 |
T.J. Hockenson | $5,300 | 7.2 | 30.4% | 0.56 | 10.7% | 11.7 |
Delanie Walker | $5,200 | 6.6 | 22.5% | 0.39 | 4.9% | 9.9 |
Jared Cook | $5,800 | 6.4 | 14.5% | 0.22 | 3.8% | 9.7 |
Eric Ebron | $5,400 | 6.3 | 22.1% | 0.36 | 6.2% | 10.4 |
Jack Doyle | $4,900 | 5.9 | 22.6% | 0.37 | 5.1% | 9.4 |
O.J. Howard | $5,000 | 5.9 | 21.7% | 0.35 | 3.8% | 9.6 |
Dawson Knox | $4,600 | 5.5 | 25.6% | 0.43 | 5.9% | 9.4 |
Noah Fant | $4,500 | 5.5 | 25.2% | 0.42 | 3.7% | 9.1 |
Dallas Goedert | $4,800 | 5.3 | 20.0% | 0.31 | 2.0% | 8.8 |
Trey Burton | $4,800 | 5.2 | 20.8% | 0.32 | 4.1% | 8.8 |
Darren Fells | $5,100 | 5.2 | 17.2% | 0.25 | 2.6% | 8.7 |
Jonnu Smith | $4,900 | 5.0 | 17.9% | 0.27 | 3.1% | 8.5 |
Cash-Game Standouts
As always, it's the spendy tight ends who offer the safest relative floor at the position. The top cash-game plays (measured by boom/bust ratio) are Darren Waller ($6,800), Austin Hooper ($6,600), Evan Engram ($6,300), George Kittle ($6,900), and Zach Ertz ($6,300). T.J. Hockenson ($5,300) is sixth. I'm gravitating toward Engram.
Tournament Standouts
As always, the tight ends with the higher floors due to targets and yardage and not being touchdown-dependent also boast the top-tier raw projections. Waller, Hooper, Engram, Kittle, Ertz, and Hunter Henry ($6,700) have 75th-percentile outcomes of at least 14.0 FanDuel points.
Cheaper plays worth eyeing are Hockenson, Noah Fant ($4,500), Eric Ebron ($5,400), and Jack Doyle ($4,900).