4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 7
If you've played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field -- and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership -- can help separate you from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to identify some players who will be the chalk at each position and how you can pivot off of them with high-upside options who could go overlooked.
Let's take a look at pivot options for Week 7 of the 2019 NFL season.
Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Price: $7,300
Where is the love for Jacoby Brissett this week? He is going to crush -- again -- and no one is talking about him.
There are a lot, and I mean a lot of good quarterback options this week -- Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan, and Josh Allen, just to name a few. All of those players are good options for their own reasons, but you could put Brissett up into that top-tier this week. First off, this game against the Houston Texans has an over/under set at 47.0 points -- the third-highest on the slate -- and has the Indianapolis Colts as only 1.0-point home favorites.
A higher-scoring game, with a close spread, with an opposing quarterback, Deshaun Watson, who can seemingly score at will. So again, why are we not strongly considering Brissett this week?
So far this season, Brissett has multiple passing touchdowns in four of his five games, posting 16 FanDuel points or more in each of those outings. His last game was a bit of a down affair against the Kansas City Chiefs, where he had only one rushing touchdown and a total of 11.94 FanDuel points. But Indy went run heavy in that one to keep the KC offense off the field.
Brissett is in a spot to bounce-back since the Texans are allowing 20.3 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the ninth-most in the league. Brissett does lack some upside since he has the fourth-fewest air yards per pass completion, per AirYards.com, but he likely won't burn you either since he has the sixth-lowest poor throw percentage. Will we get 300-plus yards from him? Probably not. Can we get a very efficient 250 and two touchdowns in a very close game? Absolutely.
Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers
FanDuel Price: $6,200
The San Francisco 49ers are in line for a relatively easy game, which could turn into a blowout. Does that mean they will be lower owned?
The unbeaten 49ers are traveling across the country to take on one-win Washington in what could be a very uninteresting real-life game. The over/under is set at 40.5, the second-lowest on the slate, and the 49ers have a team total set at 25.00, with Washington at only 15.50. If this is going to be a blowout, then a normal game stack likely won't work, since the 49ers won't need to continuously push the offense. But, what if, even in the blowout, the majority of the running back work goes to Tevin Coleman?
That's what we're here to talk about, and it's why I love him as a tournament pivot this week. At his price point of $6,200, he is surrounded by Devonta Freeman, playing in a very high over/under game, Derrick Henry, the clear number one back in a rushing offense, and Frank Gore, against the worst defense in the league. If everyone is into those other players, I want to be on Coleman, who saw 46 snaps last week -- most on the team among running backs -- and tied for the team lead two weeks ago. Last week, he also saw the most rushing attempts for a 49ers running back along with three targets, which was one fewer than Matt Breida.
Coleman appears to be the number one guy for San Fran. Of course, they have a running back by committee, but that is in terms of snaps, not production, which is where Coleman takes the lead.
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
FanDuel Price: $7,000
An over/under of 38.5 is horrible. Can we find fantasy value here?
The New Orleans Saints are on the road to take on the Chicago Bears, who might be getting Mitchell Trubisky back. We might not have this information until Sunday morning, but that should help keep ownership off of Allen Robinson. If Trubisky is in or out, it shouldn't change things for Robinson, who makes an ideal tournament pivot this week.
While the low total and solid Saints defense are reasons to tread lightly, that's also why A-Rob will go low-owned. And it's not such a bad spot for Robinson, since the Saints are allowing 31 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers, the ninth-most in the league.
A-Rob also boasts stellar usage. Robinson has seven or more targets in every single game this season, leads the team in air yards, aDOT (average depth of target), market share of air yards, and total target share, according to AirYards.com. This could be a bit of a stretch -- but Robinson is the Bears' passing game, period.
Jimmy Graham, Green Bay Packers
FanDuel Price: $5,800
Jimmy Graham is a good tournament play this week.
No really, Graham has plenty of upside this week -- if a few things play out. First off, the Green Bay Packers have already ruled out Davante Adams from this week's game against the Oakland Raiders. Next, both Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have missed practiced all week and are listed as questionable for the game. If they are both out, the Packers will be left with Allen Lazard, Jake Kumerow, and Darrius Shepherd at wide receiver, which certainly isn't too comforting.
While Graham isn't the most exciting player in the league, he can benefit this week simply due to the extra targets that should be available. Plus, it's a nice matchup for the Green Bay offense. The Raiders are giving up the 12th most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks and 11.9 FanDuel points per game to tight ends, the sixth-most in the league.
A 26.00 implied team total for the Packers is strong, and with plenty of opportunity in the offense for grabs, Graham could pop at low ownership.