NFL

FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 7 Thursday Night

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Oct 17th, 2019
The Chiefs are getting rolled by opposing rushing attacks, putting Phillip Lindsay in a great spot. Who else should you look to tonight?

Week 7's Thursday night clash is an AFC West matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos.

KC is a 3.0-point road favorite, and the public is loving them some Chiefs. Per oddsFire, a whopping 90% of the bets and 91% of the money being placed on the spread is on Kansas City. When it comes to DFS, knowing what the public thinks is awfully handy, and if the DFS community thinks like bettors, it could lead to Denver going under-owned in this spot.

Our models like Denver. While we forecast a 25.39-23.64 win for KC, we see Denver covering -- another reason to think long and hard about using a few Broncos tonight.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City ($16,000)

You don't need me to tell you this, but it's kind of my job to do so -- Patrick Mahomes is going to be highly owned tonight. Mahomes is popular on multi-game main slates, so on a single-game slate, yeah, he gonna be chalk.

Do you really want to risk fading him, though?

We have the MVP pegged for 21.9 FanDuel points, a massive 6.4 more than anyone else. He's averaging 23.9 FanDuel points per game despite a two-game stretch in which he tossed one touchdown. His ceiling/floor combination is out of this world.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City ($14,500)

Tyreek Hill returned last week and logged just a 50% snap rate in his first game back. On a short week, he may see a reduced snap rate again, but as has always been the case with Hill, he needs just a few snaps to go nuts.

Despite playing just half the snaps in Week 6, Hill accounted for an incredible 49% of KC's air yards, per AirYards.com, along with a team-best 29% target share. When he was out there, they used him. Hill turned that volume into five catches for 80 yards and two scores.

We have Hill as the number-two overall player tonight, ahead of Joe Flacco, and he can break this slate with one of his trademark big plays.

Phillip Lindsay, RB, Denver ($13,500)

In the past two weeks, Kansas City's opponents have run the ball relentlessly and found success, with both the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans winning at Arrowhead. Marlon Mack had 29 carries for 132 yards in Week 5 while Carlos Hyde ran it 26 times for 116 and a tud a week ago.

Denver has more of a split backfield than either of those two teams, but Phillip Lindsay has had the edge. He's tallied 84 carries to Royce Freeman's 66 while both have seen 26 targets.

Given Freeman's solid role and $8,000 price tag, he should see a lot of ownership tonight -- maybe more than Lindsay since the $5,500 discount is so big on a slate with KC's high-priced stars. I still like Lindsay as a priority play, though, due to him getting seven carries inside the five, compared to none for Freeman, and Lindsay should be a focal point for Denver regardless of game script.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver ($12,000)

Courtland Sutton has emerged as Denver's top receiver, and he's seen at least seven targets in every game. The second-year pro tops the Broncos in both air yards share 40% and target share (23%). He's also got a team-high seven looks inside the 20.

The usage is fully there.

If you're building with the idea that Denver wins, then Sutton isn't as appealing since the Broncos would likely run the ball a lot if they get a lead. If you're constructing a KC-heavy lineup under the assumption that the Chiefs roll, Sutton is a great player to have.

While our models see this game being close, if Denver would happen to get in a hole, it would be a huge boost for Sutton.

Noah Fant, TE, Denver ($6,500)

Given the salaries on this slate, you need to find some cap relief somewhere. Noah Fant can be that guy.

The rookie is third on the team in air yards share (14%), and Kansas City has allowed 12.0 FanDuel points per game to tight ends this season, the sixth-most in the league.

Fant has the athletic ability to pop for a big play, and he's been in on at least 60% of the snaps in every game this season.