Daily Fantasy Football Quarterback Primer: Week 7
Welcome to another edition of my weekly NFL DFS quarterback primer article. Each week I will be looking to find an edge at the quarterback position for daily fantasy football contests.
In this weekly column, you will find the best value quarterbacks for tournaments and head-to-head cash games. Additionally, I will highlight one or two quarterbacks to avoid in the upcoming week.
Last week was a near perfect week for this column. Matt Ryan, who was our top tournament play of the week, finished as the number-one overall quarterback in Week 6. Lamar Jackson, who has been a lock for us in cash games each week, finished with the second most points of the week. Our top overall play of the week, Kyler Murray, finished as the third best signal caller of Week 6, returning value in cash and in tournaments. As if nailing the top three plays of the week was not enough, the fourth and final recommendation last week was to start Deshaun Watson in tournaments. Watson finished with the fourth most FanDuel points in Week 6. If you lost in DFS in Week 6 and you listened to the advice in this column, you did not lose because you played the wrong quarterback.
Not every week will be that perfect, but it great to see our process can lead to great results. Without further ado, let's dig in for Week 7.
Best Overall Play of the Week
Kyler Murray ($7,700) -- We are going with Murray for our second straight week. The rookie quarterback followed his best game of his career in Week 5 with a new best game of his career in Week 6, throwing for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns against a weak Atlanta Falcons secondary. Now he gets a matchup against a New York Giants secondary that is ranked bottom-10 in the league, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics. Our models have Murray as the number one overall point-per-dollar value play across all positions for Week 7. We mentioned this last week, but it remains true heading into Week 7 -- only two quarterbacks this season have completed six-plus passes of 15 or more yards in a game. Those two quarterbacks are Patrick Mahomes and Murray. Fire up the rookie with confidence once again in Week 7.
Tournament Plays
Jared Goff ($7,800) -- Goff is coming off of his worst game of his career, throwing for fewer than 80 passing yards and no touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 6. However, he is in a prime bounce-back spot this week against an Atlanta defense that continues to prove inept at stopping the pass. According to our power rankings, the Falcons have the worst pass defense in the league. Yes, even worse than the Miami Dolphins' pass D. Quarterbacks against the Falcons have had a league high 63% success rate on deep-ball passes (16-plus air yards) this season. Goff has thrown six or more deep ball passes in half of his games this year, and we should expect him to exceed that number once again in a game with the highest over/under of the week. If Goff's previous performance keeps his ownership percentage low in tournaments, he could easily be the most profitable play of the week. Our projections have him as the sixth best point-per-dollar play of the week.
Daniel Jones ($7,200) -- Jones attempted eight deep-ball passes for the third time this season in Week 6. He is up against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is averaging seven deep-ball attempts against per game, good for the sixth most in the league. We can expect a lot of deep balls from Jones in a game with the second highest over/under of the week. Jones has a low floor -- he has topped 15 FanDuel points in just one out four starts this season -- but his upside makes him a strong consideration in tournaments. Our projections have Jones as the fifth best value play of Week 7.
Cash-Game Play
Josh Allen ($7,700) -- Allen gets a home matchup with the Dolphins, who have the second worst pass defense, according to our pow metrics. Miami has let up at least two passing touchdowns to every quarterback they have faced this season. Allen also has great potential as a rusher in Week 7. Allen has the second most rushing attempts per game (8.2) so far this year at the position. This gives him the safe floor we are looking for in cash games, and it boosts his upside, as well. Allen is the second best value play of the week, according to our projections.
Quarterback to Avoid
Kirk Cousins ($7,300) -- Cousins is coming off of his best two games of his season, scoring more than 25 FanDuel points in consecutive weeks. However, we should tread cautiously with the Minnesota Vikings' passer in Week 7. Cousins has completed more than three deep-ball attempts in only one game so far this season. That came last week in a shootout against a Philadelphia Eagles team that ranks in the bottom-10 against the pass by our numbers. Cousins gets a much tougher matchup on the road in Week 7 against a Detroit Lions defense that ranks top five against the pass so far. Do not bank on Cousins to repeat his Week 6 output. Our projections have Cousins outside of the top-15 at the position in points scored this week.
Samuel Factor is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Samuel Factor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Samfact2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
