4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 7
There are a lot of the “big name” teams that are not included on the NFL FanDuel main slate this week. Teams including the New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys are off the main slate as they are playing in this week’s primetime games. This should create some unique stacks for Week 7.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player ownership projections.
New York Giants
If you haven’t been rostering tight ends that play against the Arizona Cardinals this season, you probably need to start doing that.
Through the first six weeks of the NFL season, the Cardinals' defense has allowed an average of 20.8 FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends. That’s 6.1 more than any other team in the league is allowing to opposing tight ends. The Arizona passing defense, in general, has been bad all season, as they’re are currently allowing 0.28 Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play -- which is tied for the fourth worst across the league. The Cardinals will get their star cornerback Patrick Peterson back from suspension this week, but he'll likely have to shake off some rust before getting back to his elite coverage play.
This week, it will be Daniel Jones and Evan Engram who get a chance to smash against the Cardinals. Per our heat map, the New York Giants currently have an implied total of 26.75 points, the third most on the FanDuel main slate.
Jones will have the opportunity to get back on track after having two subpar performances against the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings. Jones' best game this season came in his debut against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have allowed the second most FanDuel points to opposing tight ends this season (14.7). In that game, Jones connected with Engram for 6 receptions, 113 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Per our projections, Engram is expected to be the highest-scoring tight end in Week 7. He’s currently projected to have 5.55 receptions, 67.12 receiving yards and 0.52 touchdowns. Based on his 9.6 average targets per game and league leading 10 red zone targets, Engram’s numbers could go well above what we have him projected for.
San Francisco 49ers
One of the more unique stacks I’ll be targeting this week is San Francisco 49ers running back Tevin Coleman stacked up with the Niners' defense. The Niners head into Washington this week, and they are currently favored to win this game by 10.0 points. That bodes well for both Coleman and the Niners D/ST, who will look to keep the undefeated streak alive for the Niners.
Last week against the Los Angeles Rams, Coleman was on the field for 43-of-78 snaps. Matt Breida was on the field 28-of-78 snaps. Coleman was clearly the lead running back for the Niners last week, leading all the team in carries, targets and touches inside the 10-yard line.
49ers RBs yesterday (all active):
* Tevin Coleman 43-of-78 snaps, 18 carries, 3 targets, 5 touches inside 10
* Matt Breida 28 snaps, 13 carries, 4 targets, 0 touches inside 10
* Raheem Mostert 7 snaps, 4 carries, 0 touches inside 10
* Jeff Wilson 0
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 14, 2019
Coleman has a great matchup this week against Washington, who is currently allowing the fifth most FanDuel points to opposing running backs this season. We have Coleman projected for 16.22 rushing attempts, 70.28 rushing yards and 0.58 touchdowns – which translates to the seventh most projected FanDuel points for running backs this week.
I like stacking Coleman up with the Niners D/ST, who has been a force all season. They currently rank second in terms of Adjusted Defensive NEP per play and have allowed just 12.8 points per game to opposing teams. which is the second lowest across the league. They also have a 10.8% adjusted sack rate, tops in the NFL. They’ll look to get after Case Keenum and the Washington offense, a group that is averaging just 15.0 points per game this season, the third fewest.
Next on the list, we have the Buffalo Bills. They are the lucky team of the week, as they get to face the win-less Miami Dolphins. We’ve been targeting guys who play the Dolphins all season long, so why stop now?
I like the position that Josh Allen is in this week versus Miami. We currently have him projected as the second-best value play at the quarterback position this week, just behind Kyler Murray. We have Allen projected to rush the ball seven times in this contest, with 0.38 touchdowns. That certainly boosts his projected scoring outcome, being able to both run and throw the ball effectively.
Outside of his game against the New England Patriots back in Week 4, Allen has completed at least 63% of his passes in each of his other four games. With the possibility to both dominate through the passing game and running game this week, Allen's ceiling could go well beyond the 20.6 FanDuel points we currently have him projected for.
Stacking up Allen with his wide receiver, John Brown, makes a lot of sense. Brown has been Allen's favorite target this season, along with Cole Beasley. Both receivers lead the Bills with 38 targets, but Brown has been slightly more effective with his. He's turned 38 targets into 28 receptions, 390 receiving yards and one touchdown, compared to Beasley's 27 receptions, 267 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
Per PFF’s wide receiver/cornerback matchup chart, Brown is currently expected to match up against Dolphins cornerback Ken Webster, and he currently has a 20% advantage over him. That ranks 13th best across all wide receiver/cornerback matchups on the FanDuel main slate. Webster is not currently ranked as a qualified cornerback in 2019, as he's only played 23.6% of defensive snaps this season. Brown should have his way with him.
While it’s not a traditional stack, I like adding the Bills defense to this mix, as well. Being that the Bills are are 16.5-point home favorite, it’s hard to avoid rostering their D/ST. If Allen can get the Bills out to an early lead in this game, the Dolphins will have to resort to the passing game to play catch-up. That should allow for this Bills defense to get after Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose offensive line is currently ranked 30th overall in terms of pass protection, per Football Outsiders.
Finally, I like pairing Russell Wilson with Tyler Lockett this week against the Baltimore Ravens. The Seahawks are currently implied for 26.25 points against the Ravens, the fourth most on the main slate. They are, however, only 3.5-point home favorites, which means the Ravens will likely keep this game close.
Wilson has had a great start to the 2019 season, putting himself in the early MVP race. He's thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but one game while adding an average of 25.16 rushing yards per game to his stat sheet. He shouldn't have any problem dicing up the Baltimore defense, a unit that is currently ranked in the bottom six in run and pass D, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. We currently have Wilson projected for 33.28 passing attempts, 263.53 passing yards and 2.02 passing touchdowns. That ranks him as the QB3 on this slate.
Lockett has dominated the target share among Seahawks receivers this year, seeing 24.21% of the teams looks. He's turned those targets into 35 receptions, 454 receiving yards and three touchdowns this season -- all three touchdowns were scored while playing at home. With Seahawks tight end Will Dissly being put on injured reserved for the rest of the season, Wilson will have one less weapon to throw to, increasing Lockett's value. Dissly was seeing a 15.26% target share prior to being injured, which is no small number.
We currently have Lockett projected to see 7.53 targets, 75.71 receiving yards and 0.41 touchdowns this week. If the Ravens are able to keep this game close, or even take a lead, the Seahawks may have resort to their passing game, boosting both Wilson's and Lockett's value this week.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)