DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 6
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Let's take a look at some of the top plays on DraftKings at various price points this week.
Patrick Mahomes ($7,500): We saw Patrick Mahomes’ floor last week, and he still scored 22 DraftKings points. After only getting sacked three times in the previous four weeks, Mahomes was sacked four times in Week 5 by the Indianapolis Colts (suffering the vengeance of Justin Houston), and his mobility was hindered by an ankle issue that plagued him throughout the game. However, after saying his ankle feels “pretty good” throughout the week, we can feel “pretty good” about his matchup with the Houston Texans. Mahomes pops in numberFire’s weekly projections as the highest-scoring quarterback on the slate, and he’ll be throwing against a defense that has allowed close to 300 yards per game and a 70% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks this season. In the game of the week, with FanDuel Sportsbook's highest total of 55.0, you can’t afford to not have a piece of the Kansas City Chiefs, and Mahomes is the piece.
Kyler Murray ($6,500): As if we already hadn’t been clued in to the swiss-cheese defense of the Atlanta Falcons, Deshaun Watson absolutely exposed them in Week 5 with his QB1 performance of 44.74 DK Points. Enter Kyler Murray, who secured his first NFL win against a similar type defense in the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5, scoring 25 DraftKings points without throwing a passing touchdown. The Falcons have allowed per-game averages of 304.5 passing yards and 2.8 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks over the last four games. And the most worrisome part of the Arizona Cardinals' offense (their suspect offensive line) shouldn’t face much trouble against Football Outsiders' 32nd-ranked defensive line in adjusted sack rate. Kyler may even get back one of his favorite targets in Christian Kirk this week. I don’t think we’ve seen Kyler’s true ceiling yet, and I think this will be the week we do.
Josh Rosen ($4,500): Stop laughing for a second and hear me out. In a date with what will clearly be the Miami Dolphins' easiest opponent of the season (Washington), Rosen has as good of a shot at 20 DraftKings Points as he will have all year. Really, we only need 13.5 DraftKings Points for cash value, but there’s potential for more here. Rosen’s offensive line (while terrible) will face a soft defensive front that ranks 21st in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate. Albert Wilson is set to return to action to give the offense a spark, and Rosen’s connection with rookie wide receiver Preston Williams has been blossoming ever since the preseason. Washington is allowing 277 passing yards and 2.6 touchdowns per game to opposing passing attacks, which roughly translates to 23.9 DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. If you need to save salary and spend down at quarterback to jam in some high-price pieces of the Houston Texans/ Kansas City Chiefs game, Rosen can lead you to the promised land.
Dalvin Cook ($8,300): With no Christian McCaffrey on the main slate this week, we must search elsewhere for the combination of insane talent and usage. We find that combo this week in the Stud in the North, who is currently averaging 27.2 DraftKings points per game this season. While some will be scared off of Dalvin because of his tough matchup with a Philadelphia Eagles run defense that is currently allowing only 47.8 yards per game to running backs on the ground, I would urge you to buy the volume on a running back who has already proven himself matchup proof after posting 19 DraftKings points against the Chicago Bears earlier this season. Our projections have Cook projected for over 23 total touches and the highest fantasy point total of any running back on the slate.
Le'Veon Bell ($6,400): What pops most about this play is that the Dallas Cowboys are allowing 7.5 receptions per game for almost 60 yards to opposing running backs over the last four weeks. Bell is averaging 6.8 receptions per game this season. Let's just say we pencil him in for five or six points on receptions alone in DraftKings' PPR format, and when you take into account his absurd usage (94.5% of the snaps, 84.4% of the team’s running back touches), Bell carries a substantial floor for a discounted price. The cherry on top is getting Sam Darnold back, which will most certainly improve the New York Jets' offensive efficiency. Bell pops as the number-two point-per-dollar value in our projections this week and will rightfully carry high ownership in DraftKings cash games.
Kenyan Drake ($4,400): While queasy from already writing up one Miami Dolphin as a play this week, I would be remiss not to mention Kenyan Drake, who pops as the best point-per-dollar value play running back on the slate, according to our projections. Drake fits DraftKings scoring perfectly as a pass-catching running back who is playing against a Washington defense that allows 6.2 receptions per game to the running back position. With explosive speed that could pay off value in a single play, Drake is a solid salary-relief choice with a tasty ceiling.
Cooper Kupp ($7,100): DraftKings had an extra three days to adjust and elevate Cooper Kupp’s price into the elite range, and they still chose not to. Kupp remains mispriced at $7,100 after seeing target counts of 9, 12, 15, 17 over the past four weeks and averaging 29.1 DraftKings points over that same span. For comparison, DraftKings highest-priced wide receiver, Julio Jones, is averaging 19.2 DraftKings points per game over the last four weeks. The natural tendency this week will be for players to pay the extra $300 for DeAndre Hopkins to catch a piece of the impending shootout in Kansas City. However, I submit that in an up-tempo game with a total that has broken the 50-point threshold, Kupp’s volume and role in the Los Angeles Rams' offense is an excellent pivot and leverage play off of the chalky Hopkins.
D.J. Chark ($5,500): D.J. Chark won’t be under the radar this week as he’s now scored five touchdowns in the first five games of this season, and he is the apple of Gardner Minshew's eye. He leads the team in air yards market share (38%), per AirYards.com, with an average depth of target of 14.5, and he is tied for the team lead in target share (21%). He’s averaging 8.3 targets per game over the past four games. That sort of volume is extremely rare to find in this price range, and he provides an excellent floor for cash games with touchdown upside for GPPs.
Jamison Crowder ($4,000): I’ll admit to being guilty in overreacting in season-long leagues after Jamison Crowder was targeted 17 times in Week 1 by Sam Darnold. What I won’t admit to is any shame in recommending him this week for Darnold’s glorious return. Our models list Crowder as the top point-per-dollar value this week at the wide receiver position. Offering a solid floor with 7.56 projected targets and salary relief for your cash-game rosters, Crowder’s pricing and projected performance can help you get up to those shiny objects at the top of the salary tree.
Austin Hooper ($5,000): Shocker, I know. We’ll keep it short here. The Arizona Cardinals allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends (24.8 DraftKings points per game) by giving up 7.2 receptions and 92.2 yards per game on average. Austin Hooper has commanded a 19% target share over the past four games (the same as Julio Jones), averaging 8.3 targets per game in that stretch. For context, Travis Kelce is averaging 8.8 targets per game over that period and is priced at $7,000. It is my opinion that if you eat this chalk this week with Hooper, it will taste of delicious strawberries and fantasy points.
George Kittle ($5,200): Your pivot this week off of the chalky Austin Hooper is an elite tight end who is only $200 more in salary and is projected to have the best value at the tight end position this week, per our models. George Kittle is coming off of two straight weeks of 8 targets and is “victim” to the DraftKings pricing being released early before the results of the previous week’s Monday Night Football game. As the focal point of the San Francisco 49ers' offense, he is under-priced this week and should see significant volume in and up-tempo game with a point total over 50.
New York Jets D/ST ($1,500): Last week, everyone put on their shocked face when they saw the Washington D/ST priced at $1,800 versus the New England Patriots, as DraftKings has lowered the floor price for defenses this year without anyone really knowing it. The most recent benefactor to this floor lowering is the New York Jets D/ST. They haven't been particularly good this year, but they also haven't been historically bad, which is what you typically see with this low of pricing. They face off against a Dallas Cowboys team that has cooled off in their past two weeks after steamrolling their first three weeks of opponents. At $1,500, you only need 4.5 DraftKings points for value, and even against the Philadelphia Eagles last week in a game they got waxed, they still managed to score 4 DraftKings points. This is the salary-relief play of the week. Expect them to be highly owned in both cash and GPPs to allow players to get up to their favorite stud plays.
Washington D/ST ($3,200): The Washington D pops in the numberFire projection system with the highest total fantasy points of any D/ST on the slate. Against a poor Miami offense, Washington has an excellent shot multiple sacks and a takeaway or two. Miami has already allowed 18 sacks over their first four games, and Josh Rosen is throwing close to one interception per game. Washington's D/ST won't see a better spot all year, and you can expect that they'll want to take advantage of it.