NFL
Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Simulations for Week 6

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
25+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Patrick Mahomes $9,200 23.87 77.2% 1.45 45.3% 29.5
Lamar Jackson $8,200 23.33 79.6% 2.05 40.6% 28.5
Deshaun Watson $8,400 21.86 73.9% 1.32 35.3% 27.3
Matt Ryan $8,100 20.98 73.6% 1.23 28.7% 25.8
Kyler Murray $7,700 20.72 76.2% 1.58 26.9% 25.7
Dak Prescott $8,000 19.54 67.8% 0.81 22.4% 24.4
Jared Goff $7,600 19.52 69.0% 1.03 20.4% 24.2
Russell Wilson $8,000 19.40 64.5% 0.70 21.4% 24.0
Jimmy Garoppolo $7,200 17.43 66.4% 0.90 16.8% 22.9
Gardner Minshew II $6,900 17.29 67.2% 1.02 15.5% 22.6
Carson Wentz $7,500 16.90 61.0% 0.62 15.1% 22.2
Kirk Cousins $7,000 16.75 62.5% 0.74 13.3% 21.5
Baker Mayfield $7,400 16.45 59.5% 0.52 12.2% 21.3
Case Keenum $6,500 15.82 64.4% 0.84 11.9% 20.5
Teddy Bridgewater $7,300 15.75 56.7% 0.44 10.2% 20.4
Andy Dalton $7,000 15.49 59.2% 0.59 10.5% 20.8
Marcus Mariota $6,500 15.08 59.3% 0.67 9.4% 20.1
Joe Flacco $6,600 14.52 58.1% 0.58 8.8% 19.6
Sam Darnold $6,700 14.05 53.8% 0.49 7.2% 19.2
Josh Rosen $6,400 12.80 50.8% 0.38 4.4% 17.8


Cash-Game Standouts
Spending down at quarterback is usually a fine cash-game strategy because we can pick matchups, but this isn't the best week for it. The top boom-to-bust performers (basically players with a high floor and a high ceiling) are Lamar Jackson ($8,200), Kyler Murray ($7,700), Patrick Mahomes ($9,200), Deshaun Watson ($8,400), and Matt Ryan ($8,100). They also rank as the five most likely to get to 20 FanDuel points. If you can't bear to spend up at quarterback in cash games, then Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,200) and Gardner Minshew ($6,900) boast the best floor/ceiling combinations.

Tournament Standouts
Shootouts could lead to big games for those expensive passers, and that's a scary thought when building around low-upside passers in the $6,000 range.

Still, if we use 75th-percentile outcomes rather than median outcomes -- so looking at realistically big games from passers -- the best values are Jackson, Murray, Minshew, Watson, Mahomes, and Jared Goff ($7,600). Minshew, of course, is the standout there at just $6,900. On a 10-game slate, it could pay off to take a chance on a lower-owned passer. Both Case Keenum and Marcus Mariota are $6,500 and still have 75th-percentile outcomes of at least 20 FanDuel points.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
20+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Dalvin Cook $8,200 18.88 61.4% 0.76 46.4% 25.8
Alvin Kamara $7,900 18.12 58.7% 0.68 39.7% 24.5
Ezekiel Elliott $8,500 18.10 56.1% 0.54 43.4% 25.1
Le'Veon Bell $6,800 17.83 66.3% 1.24 43.5% 24.5
Leonard Fournette $7,300 17.37 60.3% 0.81 39.0% 23.7
Nick Chubb $7,800 17.30 55.1% 0.60 38.5% 24.0
David Johnson $6,900 15.44 57.1% 0.56 26.6% 20.4
Chris Carson $7,200 14.73 52.2% 0.43 26.9% 20.3
Derrick Henry $6,700 13.76 53.2% 0.53 24.9% 20.0
Todd Gurley II $7,100 13.67 48.9% 0.29 19.3% 18.9
Phillip Lindsay $6,700 13.43 52.3% 0.40 19.4% 18.5
Devonta Freeman $6,600 13.36 49.8% 0.44 21.4% 18.9
Mark Ingram II $7,500 13.27 41.1% 0.24 21.0% 19.1
Joe Mixon $6,400 12.56 47.6% 0.35 15.9% 17.7
Damien Williams $6,600 11.73 42.9% 0.26 14.6% 17.2
Kenyan Drake $5,600 11.32 50.1% 0.51 14.1% 16.8
Royce Freeman $5,200 10.75 50.3% 0.46 10.2% 15.1
Chris Thompson $5,400 10.57 48.6% 0.46 10.3% 15.7
Carlos Hyde $6,000 10.16 38.5% 0.24 9.7% 15.0
Adrian Peterson $5,300 10.10 49.3% 0.37 6.8% 15.1
Matt Breida $5,900 9.90 39.3% 0.23 6.3% 14.8
Tevin Coleman $5,000 8.99 47.0% 0.43 8.4% 14.3
LeSean McCoy $6,400 8.80 26.3% 0.07 4.0% 13.0
Miles Sanders $5,700 8.54 33.9% 0.17 5.8% 13.4
Duke Johnson $5,300 8.31 35.9% 0.16 2.7% 12.5
Jordan Howard $6,200 7.93 24.5% 0.07 2.9% 12.3
Ito Smith $5,000 7.01 30.3% 0.14 2.3% 10.9
Chase Edmonds $5,200 6.03 26.2% 0.11 2.2% 10.6
Giovani Bernard $5,000 5.67 23.4% 0.06 0.7% 9.6
Dion Lewis $4,900 5.56 24.4% 0.09 0.9% 9.7
Rashaad Penny $5,400 5.18 15.4% 0.02 0.3% 8.9


Cash-Game Standouts
This could change on a whim depending on the status of Todd Gurley ($7,100) and David Johnson ($6,900), but as of now, the best boom-to-bust ratios of the week belong to Le'Veon Bell ($6,800), Leonard Fournette ($7,300), Dalvin Cook ($8,200), Alvin Kamara ($7,900), and Nick Chubb ($7,800). Spending down at running back will be enticing if we have cheap workhorses, but I'll still prioritize Bell, Fournette, and Cook this week if Gurley and/or Johnson were to miss, given their combinations of floor and ceiling.

If seeking non-injury-dependent cheaper plays, Derrick Henry ($6,700) would be a fine Sunday-morning pivot from Gurley and Johnson.

Tournament Standouts
Huge games from running backs are generally tied to huge workloads, so it's no surprise to see that the backs with at least a 27% chance to hit 20 FanDuel points are Cook, Bell, Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500), Kamara, Fournette, and Chubb. Elliott has yet to get there all season and isn't a cash-game priority at his slate-high tag, but his ceiling remains as high as anyone else's on the slate.

I'll always advocate spending up on running back in the majority of lineups on FanDuel, given the scoring format. Two backs who could go underowned but are best suited for tournaments rather than cash games are Henry at $6,700 with Johnson, Gurley, and Bell so close in price and also Chris Carson ($7,200), who is priced above all three of those backs in better positions. Carson is definitely overpriced but still is one of nine backs with at 75th-percentile outcome that gets him to 20 FanDuel points.

When seeking cheaper tournament plays that can differentiate your lineups, Kenyan Drake ($5,600) actually grades out well when using his 75th-percentile value. He's sixth on the slate. Royce Freeman ($5,200) ranks 10th.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
DeAndre Hopkins $8,400 15.86 46.2% 1.29 53.7% 21.8
Julio Jones $8,500 15.57 42.9% 1.18 52.5% 21.0
Michael Thomas $8,200 15.30 46.8% 1.48 53.8% 20.5
Cooper Kupp $7,800 15.10 49.0% 1.48 52.1% 20.9
Amari Cooper $8,100 14.19 40.6% 1.11 47.1% 19.5
Tyreek Hill $7,400 14.09 46.0% 1.24 44.6% 19.5
Odell Beckham Jr. $7,600 13.60 41.8% 1.00 42.5% 18.8
Adam Thielen $7,200 13.54 43.3% 1.14 39.9% 18.5
Tyler Boyd $6,400 13.48 52.0% 1.60 40.7% 18.4
Tyler Lockett $6,300 12.87 50.8% 1.48 40.1% 18.6
Larry Fitzgerald $5,600 12.48 55.4% 1.73 35.9% 17.0
Robert Woods $7,100 12.14 40.6% 0.97 36.0% 17.8
Will Fuller V $6,600 12.08 44.7% 1.17 35.0% 17.0
DJ Chark Jr. $6,500 11.72 43.6% 1.06 33.0% 16.9
Terry McLaurin $6,400 11.27 39.8% 0.96 28.4% 16.1
Courtland Sutton $5,900 11.22 48.2% 1.30 32.1% 16.5
Sammy Watkins $6,800 11.21 33.9% 0.77 25.4% 15.1
Brandin Cooks $6,500 11.12 40.0% 0.88 29.1% 16.0
Jarvis Landry $6,700 10.95 35.2% 0.77 25.9% 15.1
Stefon Diggs $5,800 10.81 47.5% 1.31 26.4% 15.4
Alshon Jeffery $6,400 10.74 39.3% 0.92 26.7% 15.3
Michael Gallup $6,100 10.52 41.2% 0.97 26.2% 15.2
Calvin Ridley $5,500 10.47 46.4% 1.16 27.5% 15.4
Emmanuel Sanders $5,500 10.44 49.6% 1.39 27.2% 15.6
Christian Kirk $5,600 10.19 45.0% 1.18 23.5% 14.6
Marquise Brown $5,800 9.94 38.6% 0.94 19.1% 13.9
Dede Westbrook $5,400 9.90 44.9% 1.15 21.6% 14.2
Jamison Crowder $5,400 9.72 42.6% 1.02 21.2% 14.0
Mohamed Sanu $6,000 9.30 32.7% 0.64 20.4% 13.7
Robby Anderson $5,300 8.79 40.7% 0.88 17.7% 13.3
Preston Williams $5,600 8.61 32.7% 0.63 13.9% 12.6
DK Metcalf $5,800 8.40 33.0% 0.66 14.6% 12.8
Auden Tate $5,400 8.35 36.5% 0.80 15.8% 13.0
Deebo Samuel $5,400 8.07 33.3% 0.67 13.4% 12.4
Corey Davis $5,100 7.39 34.1% 0.68 11.2% 11.9
Demarcus Robinson $6,700 7.37 13.2% 0.19 8.5% 11.0
DeVante Parker $5,400 7.31 29.5% 0.53 10.3% 11.6
Nelson Agholor $5,100 7.27 30.5% 0.59 9.2% 11.3
Paul Richardson Jr. $4,700 7.19 38.8% 0.82 10.5% 11.5
Trey Quinn $5,100 6.88 30.5% 0.55 9.4% 11.2
Marquise Goodwin $5,200 6.86 26.7% 0.47 7.5% 10.7
Demaryius Thomas $4,800 6.82 32.4% 0.60 9.5% 11.0
Mecole Hardman $6,400 6.80 15.8% 0.24 7.0% 10.9
KeeSean Johnson $4,600 6.78 34.1% 0.68 7.7% 10.7
Randall Cobb $5,100 6.65 24.9% 0.44 6.0% 10.1


Cash-Game Standouts
The best boom-to-bust ratios belong to affordable options: Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600), Tyler Boyd ($6,400), Tyler Lockett ($6,300). Right behind them, though, are Cooper Kupp ($7,800) and Michael Thomas ($8,200). If looking for players who are the best bets to return 2x value outside of those, Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) and Courtland Sutton ($5,900) pop for the Denver Broncos, as does Stefon Diggs ($5,800) at a really cheap tag. Calvin Ridley ($5,500) is riskier but still grades out well enough. It's worth noting that Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins ($8,400), Julio Jones ($8,500), Cooper Kupp, and Amari Cooper ($8,100) are the most likely wideouts to return at least 15 FanDuel points in case you build receiver-heavy cash-game lineups.

Tournament Standouts
Hopkins, Jones, Kupp, Thomas, and Tyreek Hill ($7,400) hit 25 FanDuel points in at least 10% of the simulated weeks if your goal is sheer upside. The best 75th-percentile outcome values -- so again, using a higher but still realistic range of outcomes for players and matching that to their salaries -- are from Fitzgerald, Lockett, Boyd, Sanders, Ridley, Sutton, Kupp, Diggs, Dede Westbrook ($5,400), and Hill.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Travis Kelce $7,500 14.73 52.5% 1.64 52.5% 20.8
George Kittle $6,500 13.38 53.5% 1.74 42.6% 18.8
Zach Ertz $6,600 12.04 47.9% 1.28 38.9% 17.7
Mark Andrews $6,300 11.11 37.5% 0.85 26.1% 15.2
Austin Hooper $6,400 10.88 37.6% 0.86 26.0% 15.3
Will Dissly $6,000 9.40 34.6% 0.70 18.9% 13.8
Delanie Walker $5,200 7.68 35.1% 0.76 12.0% 11.9
Jared Cook $5,600 6.64 20.8% 0.34 6.2% 10.4
Gerald Everett $6,000 6.35 15.4% 0.23 5.8% 10.3
Jason Witten $5,000 6.32 27.0% 0.47 7.2% 10.3
Vernon Davis $4,800 5.51 24.2% 0.39 4.9% 9.4
Tyler Eifert $4,500 5.40 28.4% 0.50 5.0% 9.4
Noah Fant $4,500 5.15 26.1% 0.44 3.6% 9.1
Geoff Swaim $4,200 4.76 22.3% 0.35 2.2% 7.8
Jordan Akins $4,600 4.73 17.5% 0.26 2.3% 7.9


Cash-Game Standouts
George Kittle ($6,500) boasts the week's best boom-to-bust ratio at a fair price, but spending at least $6,000 is a sound strategy this week. Of the seven tight ends at or above that price, all but Gerald Everett ($6,000) are top-six in straight up median value and 75th-percentile value. Will Dissly is seventh in boom-to-bust ratio. (The cheaper tight end who fits that bill is Delanie Walker ($5,200), but his usage is trending down, and I anticipate spending up just about every chance I can.)

Tournament Standouts
Again excluding Everett, it's the six priciest tight ends with double-digit odds to get to 15-plus FanDuel points this week, headlined by Travis Kelce ($7,500), who got there in over half of the simulated weeks. Tight end almost always requires spending up for ceilings, but on a per-dollar basis, Tyler Eifert ($4,500), Jason Witten ($5,000), and Noah Fant ($4,500) round out the top-10 in value when examining the 75th-percentile outcome rather than the median outcome.

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