3 Daily Fantasy Football Players to Avoid in Week 6
We have loads of pieces on numberFire dedicated to helping you figure out which plays you should target in your daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel and DraftKings. And you should definitely check them all out!
But an underrated aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play. Narrowing down your short list of potential plays by avoiding those who are overpriced and/or in tough matchups goes a long way towards ensuring that you create optimal lineups.
Let's go through three guys to consider fading on this week's DFS main slates.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
FanDuel Price: $8,000
DraftKings Price: $6,600
Russell Wilson has been absurdly good for the Seattle Seahawks so far in 2019 -- like insanely good. Through five games, the Seattle signal caller has posted an average of 25.3 FanDuel points per game, providing a very strong weekly floor. Our metrics show he's balled out in real life, too. Wilson owns a mark of 0.36 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, third-best among quarterbacks with 100 or more drop backs this season.
While the Cleveland Browns, Wilson's Week 6 opponent, have been a bit up and down this year, their defense has been very solid. They rank 13th against the pass this year, and they have really gotten after the passer, sitting seventh in Adjusted Sack Rate. That doesn't bode well for Wilson, who plays behind an offensive line that ranks 17th in sack rate.
Pace indicators also don't favor Wilson. Both of these teams play some slow football in terms of overall pace (bottom 10 each), and they are both in the bottom six in terms of situation-neutral pace.
It's hard fading one of fantasy's best players this year, but this doesn't look like a great week to start Wilson.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel Price: $8,500
DraftKings Price: $8,500
The bellcow of the Dallas Cowboys' offense, Ezekiel Elliott has been outstanding this year. Despite having a murky contract situation that caused him to start slowly, Zeke has come back with a vengeance, ranking 14th in Rushing NEP per carry (0.11), and he's been even better in terms of Rushing Success Rate (48.24%, sixth).
This may come as a surprise to some, but against the lowly New York Jets, Elliott may not go crazy. We have the Jets ranked as the fourth-best run defense, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, and they've basically wiped out opposing rushers as Nick Chubb and Jordan Howard were held to 62 rushing yards apiece against Gang Green.
Dallas is a 7.0-point favorite this week, and 85% of the total bets are coming on Dallas, per oddsFire. It would logically make sense that Zeke is in line for a pile of work. However, given his tough matchup, it may not be a bad time to consider fading Elliott.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
FanDuel Price: $7,800
DraftKings Price: $7,100
There are three very good football teams in the NFC West, and perhaps the most surprising outfit of the bunch is the San Francisco 49ers. So how have they done it?
This defense is humming. The San Fran D ranks first overall, including first against the pass, and they have wiped out nearly all opposing passers and wide receivers. Jameis Winston (194 passing yards, three interceptions), Mason Rudolph (174 yards, one interception), and Baker Mayfield (100 passing yards, two interceptions) have all been eviscerated by the Niners' D.
That could equate to a tough day not only for Jared Goff but for stud wideout Cooper Kupp. Kupp has recorded 15-plus FanDuel points in four straight weeks, but he may not make it five straight against the 49ers. While a lot of people will likely point chase with Kupp, you can get a leg up on the field and fade him.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.