Daily Fantasy Football Tight End Primer: Week 6
The great thing about daily fantasy football is that so much changes every week, with matchups, salaries and projected ownership all varying -- sometimes significantly -- from main slate to main slate.
At numberFire, we have a plethora of tools to help you as you build your lineups, and something we've added this season is an in-depth look at the four core positions. In this piece, we'll break down the tight end slot on FanDuel's main slate.
Here we go.
Tight end is top-heavy this week, with our models projecting just six players for more than 7.0 FanDuel points, and that is reflected in this piece.
Per usual, when Kelce is on a slate, he's the top play of the week, according to our numbers, as we forecast him to post a slate-high 14.4 FanDuel points, 1.3 clear of any other tight end. Kelce has surpassed 100 air yards in three of his past four games, per AirYards.com, and ranks first at the position in total air yards (481) for the season.
He's up against the Houston Texans in what should be one of the more popular games of the slate -- probably the most popular game -- as it holds a massive 54.5-point total, 3.5 more than any other contest.
The Texans have been good against tight ends this season (fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game allowed to the position), but they haven't faced many good ones. A week ago, they allowed six catches and 56 yards to Austin Hooper, and prior to that, Greg Olsen was the best pass-game tight end they'd faced.
With KC implied for 29.25 points and it looking like Tyreek Hill may suit up, the Chiefs' offense could go wild here. Don't be shocked if Kelce leads the way as we have him projected for 0.61 touchdowns -- miles ahead of any other tight end.
Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons ($6,400)
The aforementioned Hooper has been really dang good this year. He's seen at least six targets in every game and has made six catches in all but one outing. That's led to him scoring at least 10.6 FanDuel points in four out of five games, with two outputs north of 17.0 FanDuel points.
The Atlanta Falcons are in a money spot this week at the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards play fast and stink on D. They really, really struggle containing tight ends, allowing a league-worst 20.0 FanDuel points per game to the position.
Our models aren't super high on Hooper for Week 6, pegging him for just 10.1 FanDuel points, fourth-best at the position. But there's plenty of room for upside here, and Hooper is a nice way to get exposure to a game a lot of people will likely look to stack up.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers ($6,500)
Kittle made a habit out of coming up with splash plays during his 2018 breakout campaign, but he's got a long gain of only 36 yards this season. He's also got just one game of double-digit FanDuel points.
But the usage is there as his 28% air yards share tops the position while his 25% target share is tied for second. Long story short -- he's going to start having some big games.
Kittle's lone double-digit output of this season came last week as he went for 70 yards and a score versus the Cleveland Browns. Taking on a Los Angeles Rams D that has been below average against tight ends in both 2018 and 2019, Kittle is this slate's TE2, per our models.
Value Dart Throw
Jordan Akins, Houston Texans ($4,600)
It's an ugly value bin this week, but paying down should differentiate your lineups as the masses probably won't have the stomach to do it.
Akins checks a few boxes, though there's obvious risk here, too.
He's in the game with the highest over/under on the slate, and he's seeing the field quite a bit lately. Against the Falcons last week, a season-high 46% of Houston’s total plays were out of 12 personnel (two tight ends), including 42% of their passes. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have allowed a league-high 54 targets to the tight end position this season.
Akins probably needs a tuddie to pay off, but in a game that could develop into a shootout, it's not unfathomable that he finds the end zone.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,400)
It's definitely a difficult road matchup as the Vikings rank fifth in overall defense, per our schedule-adjusted numbers. A lot of that, however, is due to their top-ranked run D. They've been more beatable through the air, though they rank a still-very-good eighth versus the pass. The Vikes are allowing 9.6 FanDuel points per game to tight ends, right around the league average.
Ertz has once again been the apple of Carson Wentz's eye, logging 9.0 targets per game. His 25% target share is tied for second at the position while his 23% air yards share is tied for fourth.
With DeSean Jackson likely out again and Philly a 3.0-point 'dog against the best run defense in the league, Ertz's volume should be safe, and if he has a good day, it could come at lower-than-usual ownership. Ertz is our third-ranked tight end on the main slate.
Will Dissly, Seattle Seahawks ($6,000)
Dissly is priced in sort of a no man's land on this slate.
He's not as expensive as the top dogs, but the discount from the top tiers to Dissly isn't very significant. Instead of rostering the Seattle Seahawks' tight end, people may find a way to get a few more bucks to get up to Hooper or Mark Andrews ($6,300) or just go super cheap at the position. Or they could opt for Gerald Everett, who is also $6,000 and has been a big part of the Rams' attack the last two weeks.
But this is a pretty nice spot for Dissly as the Cleveland Browns have given up 12.1 FanDuel points per game to tight ends, the seventh-most. Dissly's usage -- 19% target share and 17% air yards share over the last three games -- is good enough, and he's got a solid 27.3% share of Seattle's targets inside the five-yard line.
Our models have Dissly as this slate's TE6, but his projection of 0.39 touchdowns is right on the heels of everyone not named Kelce.