4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 6
Fantasy value can be defined in so many ways. In season-long leagues, one might determine value by looking at output compared to draft position. In daily leagues, we're often looking at output per $1,000 in salary.
Finding cheap players who can bust out for big games is pivotal to fitting in high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey, and it is a key component of tournament-winning lineups.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value players jump out and will have wildly high ownership, while others aren't as obvious. To make your decisions easier, we're here to crunch the numbers and do our best to point out those bargains to you.
So, what are we waiting for? Let's go digging for value!
Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings Price: $5,200
Projected Points: 16.3
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.13
Kirk Cousins' Week 5 explosion was not hard to see coming. After a rough start to the season and even getting called out by his own teammates, Cousins needed to prove himself, and lucky for him a matchup against the woeful New York Giants secondary was the panacea he needed. Cousins completed 81.5% of his passes, topped 300 yards, and threw for multiple scores for the first time this season.
He'll have a chance to put up big numbers once again when the Minnesota Vikings host the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. The Eagles' run defense is an elite unit, holding opposing teams to just 63.0 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the league. They have not been nearly as effective at stopping opposing quarterbacks (well, at least ones not named Luke Falk).
The Eagles have given up a minimum of 320 yards and two scores in three of their five contests, giving up an average of 371 yards and 2.5 scores in their two away games. They rank just 22nd against the pass, according to numberFire's Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per Play metric.
He's topped 300 yards in each of his past two contests against Philly, and he's thrown for multiple scores in five of his eight career starts against them. There have been no fewer than 43 combined points scored when Cousins has started against the Eagles, games which have seen an average of 52.6 points scored.
We project Cousins and the Vikings to put up more than 25 points against the Eagles this week, with Cousins returning a baseline value of 3.13 DraftKings points per $1,000 with an upside of 6.00 points per $1,000.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington Redskins
DraftKings Price: $4,500
Projected Points: 10.3
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.28
Save for "Scary" Terry McLaurin, the Washington Redskins have been an absolute dumpster fire this year. The team is putting up just 14.6 points and 281.6 yards per game this season, good for the third and fourth worst marks in the league, respectively. Only two teams have had a shorter average time of possession than their 26:31 minutes.
Interim head coach Bill Callahan wants to change that, and in order to do so, he'll be aiming to run the ball more often. There is no better opponent to initiate his new ways than Washington's Week 6 opponent, the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins come into this week allowing the most DraftKings points per game (40.75) to opposing running backs this year, and only the Cincinnati Bengals are trying to make it a close race to mediocrity. They've given up an astounding 175.8 yards on the ground per game, allowed multiple scores to opposing backs in three of their four games, and have already allowed three 100-yard rushers.
This is all great news for an aging Adrian Peterson, who will get one of his few chances this season to break out. Peterson has averaged just 2.7 yards per tote this year, so it is understandable if you're skeptical of rostering the 34-year-old in your DraftKings lineup. Fortunately for Peterson, the Dolphins are allowing 4.8 yards per carry, have already allowed seven backs to have double-digit PPR games, and have allowed a minimum of 14.5 points to the opposing starting back.
Of course, given that nobody will be watching this game, one wonders how we'll find out what stats he ends up accumulating at the end of the day. If two winless teams play and nobody witnesses the game, do stats still count? The answer to that is, fortunately, yes, and we have Peterson projected for 10.3 DraftKings points and an upside of 23.0. Don't sleep on the future HOFer just yet.
Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins
DraftKings Price: $4,100
Projected Points: 9.2
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.25
This Washington/Miami game is going to be SO exciting, why not dip into the well for more?! If you're going to look for value on the other side of the field, you can look to Kenyan Drake at running back or Preston Williams at wide receiver.
The rookie out of Colorado State has been a bright spot in an otherwise disastrous season for Fins fans. The rookie's 15 receptions, 30 targets, and 201 receiving yards lead the team. While he ranks near the bottom of receivers with 30-plus targets by numberFire's NEP metric, he makes it up for fantasy owners with increased opportunity, and he should see plenty of looks this week when the team faces Washington.
The Snyder riders are giving up 45.8 points per game to opposing wideouts, the fourth-most in the league this year. Their nine touchdowns allowed to the position is second only to the Atlanta Falcons, and they've already allowed 10 opposing wideouts to score double-digit DraftKings points against them (nine of whom have scored at least 12.0 DraftKings points).
He has a 22.1% target share on the season, and Josh Rosen should continue looking his way in a plus matchup this week. We currently project him for 9.2 DraftKings points with an upside of 19.5. He may not be cash game fodder, but he'll be an ultra low-owned player who could help you make a splash in tournaments.
Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos
DraftKings Price: $2,900
Projected Points: 5.4
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 1.85
As if we weren't taking enough (educated) risky picks with the last two names, we now bring up a player who saw just one target last week and has just 16 on the season. I'm talking, of course, about former Iowa standout Noah Fant.
The Denver Broncos rookie hasn't made much of an impact outside of a Week 4 touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he may have a chance to raise his fantasy profile this week when the Broncos take on the Tennessee Titans. The Titans, whose defense has been otherwise superb this season, has shown a weakness against opposing tight ends.
While they may not be as deficient against the position as the Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, their 15.4 DraftKings points per game allowed to the position is the sixth-most in the league. Tennessee has allowed a tight end to score in four of their five games thus far; the one game a tight end didn't score ended up being a massive nine-catch, 130-yard outing for Austin Hooper.
If you do take a punt at the position and use a guy like Fant, know that you'll likely only hit value if he finds pay dirt. With a max of just four targets in a game this year, it's hard to see him netting you enough DraftKings points on catches and yards alone. You see this in our baseline projection for him of just 5.4 DraftKings points. We have his upside at 13.9 points this week, however, which would return nearly 4.8 Draftkings points per $1,000. He's a (very) risky play, but that's often what you need to get over the hump.
Ian Goldsmith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ian Goldsmith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username zoidbergs_revenge. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.