4 DraftKings Studs to Target in Week 6
Week 6 is upon us, and it is now time to figure out who we want to trust this week.
There are many different high-priced studs to target on DraftKings, so let's see which ones stand out and project to be high-end performers according to our models.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
DraftKings Price: $6,400
Projected Points: 24.2
The Atlanta Falcons have totally abandoned the running game, their lead back, Devonta Freeman has only averaged 11.6 carries while his back up Ito Smith has only averaged 3.6. Atlanta running backs have only rushed for one touchdown this season. That has lead to Matt Ryan leading the NFL in passing attempts with 222, and he has topped the 300 passing yard mark in all five games hitting that DraftKings bonus. He is currently averaging the fifth-most DraftKings points per game amongst all starting quarterbacks.
Now in Week 6, Ryan gets a dream matchup against the Arizona Cardinals in what Vegas projects to be the second-highest scoring game of the week. Atlanta owns a 26.75 implied team total and Ryan has accounted for 92.3% of the Falcons offensive touchdowns. Quarterbacks have feasted against the Cardinals, who have allowed 8.2 yards per attempt, a 68.4% completion rate, and have given up 12 passing touchdowns with 0 interceptions. Based on those statistics, Arizona owns our 26th ranked passing defense. Ryan has a case to be the top quarterback option of the week.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
DraftKings Price: $6,700
Projected Points: 19.7
Volume over matchup has seemed to be successful theme through five weeks. While no one is topping the volume role of Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette has a strong argument for the second-best role amongst all running backs. He ranks second in the NFL in total touches with 115 averaging 23 per game. Something we had not seen in years past with him was this type of receiving work. He owns a 17.3% team target share and has averaged 6.9 DraftKings points per game on receiving stats alone. He ranks sixth amongst running backs with at least 10 receptions in Net Expected Points (NEP).
Based on his volume alone, Fournette has been a game flow independent back we can trust. This week, the Jacksonville Jaguars actually find themselves as a favorite for the first time all season against the New Orleans Saints. While the defensive stats for the Saints look good overall, they have given up a touchdown to opposing running backs in three of five games. On the road this season, the Saints have allowed opposing teams to score 27 points per game. Fournette volume role makes him a strong play in Week 6.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
DraftKings Price: $7,100
Projected Points: 18.1
Not many people pegged Cooper Kupp to be leading all wide receivers in DraftKings points per game (25.6) after five weeks coming off that ACL tear a season ago. He has seen 63 targets through five weeks, including 44 over the last three. He is tied for third in red zone targets and ranks fourth in NEP amongst wide receivers with at least 15 targets. He has hit the 100+ receiving yard DraftKings bonus in four straight games.
The Los Angeles Rams own the third-highest implied team total on the main slate at 27 against the San Francisco 49ers. While the 49ers pass defense has looked incredible and ranks first in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, they have given up production to opposing teams primary slot receiver: Chris Godwin (3/53/1), Tyler Boyd (10/122/0), JuJu Smith-Schuster (3/81/1) and Jarvis Landry (4/75/0). Our projections have Kupp as the second-highest scoring receiver on the main slate this week.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings Price: $5,200
Projected Points: 15.9
George Kittle has now seen 8 or more targets in three of the first four games this season and owns a 25.7% target share. That target share number is third amongst all tight ends only trailing Darren Waller (26.1%) and Zach Ertz (25.9%). The Niners passing game hasn’t had to be fully released yet because of all of the success they are having on the ground, but that might change this week against the Rams.
The Niners are a 3.5 point underdog going into Los Angeles this week, and could be forced to open up the passing game quite a bit more than we have seen. Our metrics have the Rams run defense ranked 12th, and we have seen some tight ends have some success recently. Over the last three weeks, the opposing team's leading tight end receiver has averaged 3.9 DraftKings points per reception. Those tight ends are not as heavily involved in the team's offense as Kittle is. Kittle looks poised for a big output in a game the Niners might be forced to throw a bit more to keep up, he should have a realistic shot at being the top-scoring tight end on the main slate.
Adam Nessel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Adam Nessel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ANessel01. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.