Week 5 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Diontae Johnson Is On the Rise
Five of the six guys highlighted here are significantly impacted by injuries to either the player immediately ahead of them in their team's pecking order or a player who is keeping them from getting more targets, which is often the same thing.
The key in fantasy football is volume. Touches and targets matter above all else. Good players and good offenses matter, but situations and market shares impact a player's fantasy wealth more than anything else.
Keep a close eye on the injury reports when making lineup and waivers decisions. Even if a player is active, his injury status greatly affects his usage, which directly gives you an edge your league-mates might not be paying close enough attention to.
Rushing Market Shares
This last Sunday, Edmonds had eight carries for 68 yards and one touchdown behind starter David Johnson. Johnson’s back was a concern following the game, and if DJ misses any time, Edmonds would stand to see a big boost in value. Even if Johnson plays but they limit him, Edmonds is worth picking up.
With DJ not at 100 percent last week, Edmonds saw four targets in the receiving game and caught three for 18 yards. In all, he saw a 12 percent target share in Week 5, and he accounted for eight of the Cards' 25 running back carries.
Edmonds is interesting enough as a standalone player, but he would be a startable option in Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons if DJ is forced to sit.
The road to stardom as the “featured back” in the Kansas City Chiefs offense has been nothing short of a headache for Damien Williams owners. But his nine carries for 23 yards and four targets (3 receptions for 15 yards) echo back to his late-season feature back abilities from 2018, albeit in a smaller sample.
The Chiefs' running game got taken out of the contests by the Indianapolis Colts’ ball control offense, and that left Chiefs' offensive players without many opportunities.
Despite that, Williams -- in his first game back -- handled a 64 percent market share of the KC's rushing attempts (14 total) as well as four targets (three catches for 15 yards) while LeSean McCoy received just two targets and zero rushing attempts. McCoy was hobbled, but Williams has the opportunity to grab the lead job as Kansas City gets Tyreek Hill back into the fold and should start to become their usual explosive selves.
Receiving Market Shares
Diontae Johnson saw his stock rise in Week 4 on Monday night with six receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown. But his quarterback, Mason Rudolph, sustained a concussion in Week 5 and might not play in Week 6. But that's a perfect opportunity to acquire Johnson before he blows up more than he has already.
With news that James Washington is questionable for this coming Sunday night, the prospects keep getting better for Johnson.
In Week 5, Johnson saw eight targets, catching five for just 27 yards. That's not a great line, but his 28.5 percent market share led the Pittsburgh Steelers. Johnson had 75 air yards, according to airyards.com, and continues to get open for the broken offense.
But the unimpressive final numbers could be enough for owners to think he’s not worth picking up. Johnson is a potential breakout candidate opposite JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Four games out, a brand-new offense and a rookie quarterback aren't typically recipes for success. But Golden Tate has the opportunity to be a major producer right away in the hobbled New York Giants' offense moving forward.
But one note from the Week 5 loss to the Minnesota Vikings -- Tate, in his first game back, saw six targets, netting three receptions for 13 yards. His targets were third on the team behind Evan Engram (11) and Sterling Shepard (10). Engram, however, is considered likely out for Thursday’s game against the New England Patriots, and Shepard is expected to sit, too.
Tate's 17 air yards from Week 5 are laughably low, but that's sure to rise if he’s the number-two option in an offense that figures to have to air it out early and often.
Tate could be a sneaky-good PPR play Thursday. I mean, someone is going to have to catch a few passes in this offense.
Red Zone Market Shares
David Montgomery isn’t lighting up the NFL like many predicted he would. Sure, he’s starting to see more touches, but his low yardage totals are keeping his value depressed.
But his usage near the end zone is keeping him afloat. Montgomery saw two red zone touches and converted one of them into a touchdown in London against the Oakland Raiders.
Montgomery is handling 66.7 percent of the Chicago Bears' red zone rushing work and 100 percent (five carries) of it inside the five, with two touchdowns. Montgomery leads all Bears rushers with 10 red zone rushing attempts, and that usage keeps him as a solid RB2-type moving forward.
Another Giants receiver makes this week’s market share report for an entirely different reason. First, let's get this out of the way -- Shepard is looking like he'll be out for a few weeks due to a concussion. But if you're off to a good start and can afford to make a move with your eyes on the future, this could be a nice buy-low window on Shepard, who was seeing good usage.
Shepard has only one touchdown in five weeks, but he is second on the team in red zone receiving market share at a clip of 21.7 percent (behind Engram’s 26.1 percent mark). That number rises to 25 percent inside the 10-yard line.
Of course, he's done most of that without Tate, but playing in an offense that's in desperate need of outside playmakers, Shepard should stay busy whenever he gets back on the field.