Daily Fantasy Football Quarterback Primer: Week 6
Welcome to another edition of my weekly NFL DFS quarterback primer article. Each week I will be looking to find an edge at the quarterback position for daily fantasy football contests.
In this weekly column, you will find the best value quarterbacks for tournaments and head-to-head cash games. Additionally, I will highlight one or two quarterbacks to avoid in the upcoming week.
Last week was the best week so far for this column. Our top overall play of the week, Deshaun Watson, was the top overall play of the week, finishing with 44.74 FanDuel points in Week 5. Who was the second highest scorer in Week 5? Matt Ryan, who was our top tournament play of the week. Our bold decision to avoid Aaron Rodgers also paid off as he failed to finish as a top-15 passer in Week 5. Our process should lead to many more weeks like Week 5.
Without further ado, let's dig in for Week 6.
Best Overall Play of the Week
Kyler Murray ($7,700) -- Murray is coming off his best rushing game of his young career, finishing with 10 rushing attempts for 93 yards in Week 5. Murray's rushing ability gives him one of the safest floors in fantasy football. The rookie has the third most rushing yards at the position heading into Week 6. However, it is the upside as a passer that makes him the best overall play of Week 6.
Only two quarterbacks this season have completed six-plus passes of 15 or more yards in a game. Those two quarterbacks are Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray. The matchup at home against the Atlanta Falcons in a game with the second highest over/under on the week is a prime opportunity for Murray to have another great day as a passer.
The Falcons have the worst pass defense in the league, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics, and just let up over 400 yards and 4 touchdowns to Deshaun Watson. And I haven't even mentioned how Murray is due for some positive touchdown regression. Fire up Murray in cash and in tournaments in Week 6.
Matt Ryan ($8,100) -- On the other side of the field against Kyler Murray is Matt Ryan. If the Arizona Cardinals are able to put up points like we expect, then Ryan needs to be in tournament consideration in Week 6.
The Cardinals have a bottom-10 passing defense and a bottom-fve rushing defense, according to our numbers, which adjust for strength of opponent. With the third most passing yards per game so far this season, Ryan has the potential to be the top overall quarterback in Week 6 if he is forced to air it out to keep up with the Cardinals. That is exactly what we are looking for in tournaments.
Matt Ryan is the fifth best point-per-dollar value play of the week, according to our projections. Stacking him with other pieces of the Falcons' passing attack is a great option in tournaments.
Deshaun Watson ($8,400) -- Watson had one of the best games of his young career in Week 5, and we might not have to wait long for him to repeat it. Watson threw for 426 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Falcons last week. Okay, okay, we should not expect see him repeat that touchdown total again. However, Watson finds himself in another advantageous matchup in Week 6 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Our power rankings actually have the Chiefs as a top-five passing defense, but that does not account for the several defensive starters who were injured in Week 5. A mobile quarterback who has already shown he has top-quarterback potential in a matchup with the highest over/under of the week? This is a recipe for success in tournaments. Our models have Watson with the third most fantasy points in Week 6.
Lamar Jackson ($8,200) -- Jackson is at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are the third worst passing defense in the league by our numbers. They are also coming off a game in which they allowed Murray to rush for over 90 yards.
Among quarterbacks, Jackson leads the league in both rushing attempts and rushing yards, giving him the safest DFS floor of any signal caller in the league. Our models do not expect that to change in Week 6. Jackson is the best point-per-dollar value play of Week 6, according to our projections. He has the perfect mixture of high floor and high ceiling that we want in cash.
Quarterback to Avoid
Carson Wentz ($7,500) -- The Philadelphia Eagles get a tough matchup in Minnesota for Week 6. The Vikings have a top-10 passing defense and the top rushing defense in the league. The Vikings have not allowed any quarterback to finish inside the top-12 at the position so far this season.
Fading Wentz, who is averaging the ninth most fantasy points per game at the quarterback position, could easily backfire. However, Wentz has far too low of a floor to trust in cash and his ceiling might be lower than perceived, too. Wentz has not completed more than three deep-ball attempts in a game so far this season. It is hard to expect him to break that trend against a solid Vikings defense in Week 6.
Our projections have Wentz outside the top 15 in value at the position this week. You are better off looking elsewhere.
Samuel Factor is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Samuel Factor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Samfact2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.