FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 5 Monday Night
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Bookmakers currently have the 49ers as -5.0 home favorites, presenting us with what should be a close and interesting game, as the over/under is set at 47.5.
Odell Beckham ($13,500) - Last week, Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 342 yards, but Beckham ended with only 20 of those yards. That isn't the level of production we expect to see from what should be their top receiver, but hopefully this matchup will turn things around. The 49ers are giving up 30.4 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers, which is 20th in the league. Beckham has always been known for his ability to break big plays, and if the 49ers' secondary is already struggling against wide receivers, this is the time to target them, as the Browns are set to be trailing in this game.
Beckham comes in as our fourth-highest projected player tonight with 14.4 FanDuel points, along with the highest projected receptions and targets. He makes a clear choice for the MVP spot tonight given how favorable his matchup is.
George Kittle ($11,00) - Kittle has been consistent to start the season, but he hasn't been great. He has a low of 6.9 FanDuel points, a high of 9.4 FanDuel points, and has yet to find the end zone. Not the best start to the season for a player who broke tight end records last year, but this is a spot to roster him with confidence.
To start, he has played on 86.3% of the team's offensive snaps, which is the highest among any position player on the 49ers. Next, Kittle comes in just behind Beckham with the second-highest projected targets, receptions, and even touchdowns.
The Browns are allowing the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends this season at 10.5. While that might not be a ton of points, Kittle is due for a bit of positive touchdown regression given the fact he leads the team in snaps, targets, receptions, and yards. He just needs to find the end zone tonight.
Baker Mayfield ($14,500) - While Nick Chubb went crazy last week with three touchdowns for the Browns, that doesn't appear to be in the cards this week. The 49ers are allowing only 11.0 FanDuel points per game to running backs this season, which is the lowest in the league. If they can't run the ball, then the offense will fall to Mayfield and the passing game. This is a clear path to fantasy production for Mayfield, who now has over 300 passing yards in two of his last three games, but has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a single game this season.
A 47.5 over./under is encouraging tonight, especially since 57% of the bets are on the over, meaning the public is expecting plenty of scoring, per oddsFire. Extra opportunities to pass the ball gives Mayfield more opportunities to score fantasy points and as such is our third-highest projected player at 17.4 FanDuel points tonight.
Deebo Samuel ($8,000) - The Browns are allowing 25.4 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season, and with the 49ers coming in with 26.25 implied team total, their offense is one to target tonight. Samuel has played on the second-highest percent of snaps for the 49ers and comes in at a very modest $8K price tag tonight. Samuel is interesting to look at tonight since he comes in second on the team in air yards and second in market share of air yards.
Samuel is averaging only 4.66 targets per game, so while his overall usage in the offense is modest, the big-play potential is there for him. One or two long throws, hopefully leading to a touchdown, are in play versus the Browns.
Antonio Callaway ($7,500) - This is a situation which needs a bit of monitoring before kickoff, as Callaway is set to make his season debut after being suspended for the first four games. The Browns also have Rashard Higgins, who could be active for this game after missing a few due to a knee injury. If we look back to last season, we can see that Callaway had a 13.9 average depth of target (aDOT) for the Browns, which was the second-highest on the Browns among qualified receivers.
There is very clear big-play potential for Callaway, and now he gets to start his season against the 49ers, who are allowing 30.4 FanDuel points per game to wider receivers.
Dante Pettis ($6,000) - Pettis is a bit cheaper compared to these other value plays, and he comes with a bit more risk. There was plenty of talk surrounding Pettis' role entering the season and eventually some injury concerns, as well. This could be considered a bit of a dart throw, but between Samuel, Marquise Goodwin, and even Richie James, we could be seeing Pettis as the lowest owned.
Low ownership can be a game changer in a single-game format, and if we jump back to last season, an 11.4 aDOT and 19% market share of air yards could be worth that dart throw.