3 NFL Prop Bets to Target for Week 5
FanDuel SportsBook provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.
Player props closely mirror the game of fantasy football, giving you a chance to stay involved in a familiar way. With Week 5 on the horizon, here are a few standout prop bets for Sunday's action this week.
Kyler Murray Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-112)
After an up-and-down start to his NFL career, Kyler Murray currently averages 268 passing yards per game. While Murray remains a work in progress, his passing yards prop sits a bit low at 247.5 yards. With Cincinnati on deck, the over looks like a sharp play on this one.
Using numberFire projections, Murray currently projects to finish with 267.02 passing yards, giving him just under 20 yards of value on his player prop. For the year, Murray ranks second in overall pass attempts (169) and plays on the NFL's fastest team. Murray should also benefit from a matchup against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 28th in pass D, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics.
Bookmakers currently project Arizona as 3.0-point underdogs, keeping game script in Murray's favor. A $100 bet on the over on Murray's prop of 247.5 passing yards nets $89.29.
Alshon Jeffery Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Finally over his early season injury, Alshon Jeffery returned to the Philadelphia Eagles' lineup in Week 4. In that game against the Green Bay Packers, Jeffery recorded three catches for 38 yards and a score on nine targets. Still seeing solid volume, Jeffery looks like a strong bet to best his 53.5-yard receiving yardage prop.
With DeSean Jackson still nursing an injury, Jeffery stands to benefit from elevated target volume. Our projections currently slate Jeffery for 58.33 receiving yards, giving him almost five yards of value on his prop. Jeffery should also benefit from a matchup against the New York Jets. The Jets remain one of the NFL's most distinct pass funnel defenses, ranking 28th in pass yards allowed per game (286.7) but eighth in rush yards allowed per game (88.7).
With such a strong matchup in the passing game, the over on Jeffery's prop of 53.5 receiving yards looks like a lock. A $100 bet in this spot returns $92.59.
Marquise Brown Over 4.5 Catches (+102)
One of the NFL's premier buy-low candidates in season-long leagues, Marquise Brown has 16 targets in his last two games. However, Brown secured just six of those targets, keeping his receiving prop at 4.5 catches. On top of the low prop, Brown's catch total brings positive odds at +102, making him an intriguing play on the Week 5 card.
Importantly, Brown's snap share in the Baltimore Ravens' offense has eclipsed 80 percent each of the past two weeks. This allows Brown's projected catch total to remain up at 4.24, according to our models. While our models point to the under as a value, a few other factors point the over as a solid play. Opposing defenses currently afford Brown 5.04 yards of cushion, giving Brown the ability to rack up easy catches. While Pittsburgh currently ranks in the middle of the pack in pass defense, Steven Young and Joe Haden ran a 4.49 and 4.62, respectively, in the 40-yard dash.
Known for his speed, Brown remains likely to see increased cushion, with teams needing to respect his speed. Right now, a $100 bet on Brown eclipsing 4.5 catches nets $102.