FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Afternoon-Slate Helper: Week 5
The Week 5 afternoon NFL DFS slate on FanDuel has only two games, one at 4:00 and one at 4:25 p.m. EST. DFS gamers will need to be contrarian to take down tournaments with so few viable options.
Our NFL DFS Matchup Heat Map will be referenced for all implied totals and spreads throughout this article, so be sure to check it out.
Let’s check out the best plays at various prices on this microscopic slate.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys ($8,800)
Zeke is projected for the most touches by a mile as well as the highest total fantasy points, making him a staple in most lineups for this slate. The Green Bay Packers are also the literal perfect matchup, as they rank first in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play while ranking dead-last in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. This should force the Dallas Cowboys to feed Elliott on the ground as Dak Prescott will likely struggle to maintain drives with his arm.
Average # of LBs on Field per Play
1. Packers (1.26)
2. Rams (1.42)
3. Ravens (1.66)
4. Giants (1.75)
5. Redskins (1.82)
32. Seahawks (2.68)
Thoughts: 1) Zeke going to smash 2) Smart of Mike Pettine to sell out to stop the pass in spite of the run
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 4, 2019
One serious concern is the loss of left tackle Tyron Smith to an ankle sprain. Without Smith over the last two seasons, Prescott has taken 28 sacks and averages 237.5 passing yards over six games, while Zeke averages 3.9 yards per carry with no touchdowns over three games.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,700)
Melvin Gordon was active last week but didn't play a snap, as the Los Angeles Chargers handled the Miami Dolphins. The Chargers are 6.5-point favorites against the Denver Broncos, meaning they aren't likely to milk the clock with their star back in his first game back. Our projections have Austin Ekeler out-touching and out-scoring his teammate. Both are solid values based on fantasy points per dollar, but Ekeler is likely to play more on passing downs, giving him the higher floor.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers ($7,300)
Jamaal Williams has yet to practice due to his concussion, meaning Aaron Jones is set up to handle most of the backfield work again. Jones handled 19 total touches when Williams was out for nearly all of last week's game, including six receptions.
Clearly Matt LaFleur is unaware:
6 PLAYS INSIDE THE 5
Success Rates Inside the 5
Run: 57% success
Pass: 45% success
2019: R: 64%, P: 52%
2018: R: 56%, P: 47%
2017: R: 55%, P: 53%
2016: R: 59%, P: 44% https://t.co/mkch1XT1Ub
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 27, 2019
Dallas ranks 20th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, so Jones should be able to post solid efficiency on the ground. With Davante Adams also struggling with turf toe, Jones could be the preferred red zone option, especially after their goal-line passes cost them the game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Should Williams miss this game, Jones would have a great floor/ceiling combination based on workload and scoring upside.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,800)
While Keenan Allen has a tough matchup with Chris Harris, the coverage might not matter. Even the best cover corners can only cover for so long, and this Denver Broncos defense ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders. That was also before the loss of second-year pass rusher Bradley Chubb, who is out for the year with a torn ACL.
Mid-Priced Upside Plays
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Green Bay Packers ($6,700)
MVS steps into the top receiver role for Aaron Rodgers with Adams likely sidelined. Adams hasn't been officially ruled out yet, but assuming he is eventually, Valdes-Scantling's projected targets will skyrocket. He isn't in the most ideal matchup, as Dallas has long, athletic cornerbacks who can run with him, but his increased role makes it hard to fade the speedster.
Bargain Bin Prospects
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos ($5,700)
With Emmanuel Sanders set up for a shadow from Casey Hayward, Courtland Sutton would get the easier end of a defense that ranks 30th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Joe Flacco hasn't been elite, but he has led the Denver offense to an 11th-ranked 0.09 Adjusted NEP per play.
Rather quietly, it looks like Courtland Sutton has taken the needed steps as a technician to start taking advantage of some his physical gifts here in Year 2. Probably won't be so quiet after his two scores today. You love to see it.
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) September 29, 2019
Furthermore, Sutton is playing significantly better than his veteran teammate. His 1.04 Reception NEP per target is far above Sanders' clip of 0.70, so expect Flacco to continue looking Sutton's way.
Randall Cobb, WR, Dallas Cowboys ($5,100)
With Michael Gallup likely seeing limited snaps and Amari Cooper seeing shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander, Randall Cobb could get good volume in the slot. He'll be matched up with the 36-year-old Tramon Williams, so expect Dak to test the aging veteran's coverage. The matchup with Green Bay's top-ranked pass defense isn't ideal, but Cobb does have the "revenge narrative" going for him.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers ($5,500)
Jimmy Graham already has two scores on the season with a 21 percent red zone target share, and now he should be getting more work between the 20s without Davante Adams. With the Packers checking in as 3.5-point underdogs, we can project plenty of pass attempts in the negative game script. Graham has been a big-bodied mismatch his entire career, and we know that Rodgers likes to throw the ball in the red zone.
Jonathan Taylor Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice Jonathan Taylor Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jtsmittyyy. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.