3 Daily Fantasy Football Players to Avoid in Week 5
We have loads of pieces on numberFire dedicated to helping you figure out which plays you should target in your daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel and DraftKings. And you should definitely check them all out!
But an underrated aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play. Narrowing down your short list of potential plays by avoiding those who are overpriced and/or in tough matchups goes a long way towards ensuring that you create optimal lineups.
Let's go through three guys to consider fading on this week's DFS main slates.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel Price: $8,200
DraftKings Price: $6,000
The Dallas offense ranks as our fourth-best unit overall and for good reason -- the man under center has been pretty good this year. He owns a Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) mark of 0.43 per drop back, second-best among quarterbacks with 100 or more drop backs.
This ain't no ordinary defense he will see in Week 5, though. They rank fourth overall by numberFire's metrics and currently sit as the league's best passing defense. They've yet to allow a passer to break the 250-yard mark this season.
They also rank sixth in adjusted sack rate, getting plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, making Dak a stay away.
Mark Ingram, RB, Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel Price: $7,500
DraftKings Price: $6,300
This season hasn't gone as planned for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2019, but one thing they can take solace in is that their run defense has been pretty darn good. While it's only been four weeks, they have yet to allow an individual runner to crack 80 yards against them this season, clocking in as our 14th-best rushing defense.
That could spell trouble for Mark Ingram, despite his insane efficiency. Among running backs with 30 or more carries this year, he leads the league in Rushing NEP per carry (0.28) -- yet despite that, his usage has been somewhat odd by the Baltimore Ravens' coaching staff.
In the last two weeks, Gus Edwards has swiped 13 carries from Ingram, and he's a non-factor in the passing game, as evidenced by his single target while predominantly trailing against the Cleveland Browns in Week 4.
As 3.5-point favorites this week, along with 56% of the total bets coming on Baltimore, per oddsFire, it would logically make sense that Ingram is in line for a pile of work. However, given his tough matchup, lack of workhorse volume, and the increasing usage of Gus Edwards, I'm not betting big on Ingram.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $7,300
DraftKings Price: $6,400
Facing a Ravens defense that ranks as numberFire's worst defense, is it time to play JuJu Smith-Schuster?
Naw fam, this is a stay away, too.
With 139 total drop backs this year, the wide receiver has only commanded a 19.4% target market share. As a point of reference, even with Brown in 2018, Smith-Schuster's target market share was 24.1%. The team distribution has been far more varied -- Diontae Johnson, James Washington, and James Conner all have 15 or more targets.
His vertical ability has also declined significantly -- he ranks only 39th so far this season in air yards. He still remains priced as an elite wide receiver, but the production may not match.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.