4 DraftKings Studs to Target In Week 4
Week 4 is upon us, and it is now time to figure out who we want to trust this week.
There are many different high-priced studs we want to target on DraftKings, so let's see which ones stand out and project to be high-end performers according to our models.
Let's dive in and see who is worth their high price tag.
DraftKings Price: $6,400
Projected Points: 21.1
With all the hype garnered by Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson has quietly slid under the radar early on. He has scored over 29 DraftKings points in two of his first three games and accounted for 88.9% of the Houston Texans offensive touchdowns. He has got it done both through the air and running the football, as shown by ranking sixth in our Total Net Expected Points (NEP) metric.
Watson and the Texans are 4-point home favorites against the Carolina Panthers and come in with an implied team total of 25 points. While the numbers show Carolina as a solid pass defense so far, they have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete passes at a high rate (64.5%). Through three weeks, they have played some up and down quarterbacks in Jared Goff, Jameis Winston & Kyler Murray, but one thing we can look at is the success Murray had on the ground against them last week averaging 8.6 yards per carry. That is an area Watson has been solid at to start the season. Watson is a nice discount week off the top two but carries the upside to be the top-scoring quarterback.
DraftKings Price: $8,800
Projected Points: 24.0
This guy is just an absolute machine, as this now marks him being mentioned in this article for the third time. Christian McCaffrey rarely comes off the field, playing on 97.6% of the offensive snaps, and the only other Panthers running back to have any touches is Reggie Bonnafon with 2. Carolina leaned on him heavily with Kyle Allen, as he saw his highest rushing attempts of the season, posting the seventh-best Rushing NEP (2.62) amongst all running backs with 12 or more carries last week.
This week Carolina is a road dog at Houston, but the matchup is nice for McCaffrey. Houston owns numberFire’s 30th ranked rushing defense as determined by our Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play metric. They have also given up the second most reception to opposing running backs through three weeks. Since becoming the Panthers workhorse back, McCaffrey has been a road dog in four games, and has averaged 28.1 DraftKings points, topping 30 in three of them. He is our highest projected running back in Week 4.
DraftKings Salary: $7,600
Projected Points: 20.5
A historic start to the year for Keenan Allen, and he is still not the highest priced wide receiver this week. Amongst all wideouts, Allen ranks first in the following statistics: target share (36.2%), receptions (29), receiving yards (404), air yards (495), and total Net Expected Points (38.93). Allen is averaging 31.2 DraftKings points which is higher than any other player across all positions besides Mahomes.
Now he gets a matchup against the historically bad Miami Dolphins defense. They rank dead last in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play and have given up big fantasy days to Marquise Brown (4/147/2) and Amari Cooper (6/88/2). The Los Angeles Chargers own the highest implied team total of the week with 30.5 and Allen has seen six red zone targets in the first three weeks. Allen's incredible start should continue right along, as he has a chance to repeat as the highest scoring wide receiver this week.
DraftKings Salary: $5,700
Projected Points: 15.6
The New York Giants got rejuvenated with the insertion of Daniel Jones last week, and the offense looked much more functional. Evan Engram has now seen 8 or more targets in all three games, owning a 23% target share. He currently averages the most DraftKings points (22.9) of all tight ends this season. The volume should stay constant for at least another week with Golden Tate still out and now with Barkley out as well.
The Giants surprisingly own the fifth-highest implied team total on the main slate against the Washington Redskins this week, who ranks as a bottom four pass defense. Engram comes in as the second-highest priced tight end this week, but still, $1.5K cheaper than Travis Kelce with a projected similar role. Engram makes sense as one of the better tight end plays, our projections have him as the top point per dollar play of the week.
Adam Nessel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Adam Nessel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ANessel01. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.