Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Notes for Week 4

The Slate

Carolina at Houston
Tennessee at Atlanta
Oakland at Indianapolis
LA Chargers at Miami
Washington at NY Giants
Kansas City at Detroit
Cleveland at Baltimore
New England at Buffalo
Tampa Bay at LA Rams
Seattle at Arizona
Minnesota at Chicago
Jacksonville at Denver

Carolina at Houston

Carolina Offense Notes
- The Panthers are in a pace-down game here, so we have to keep expectations in check for Kyle Allen ($6,800) and the Carolina offense with their 21-point implied team total, which ranks 14th of 24 main-slate teams. Allen showed up well against a weak pass defense last week, accruing 0.58 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, compared to the league average of 0.13. Allen also completed 4 of 6 deep passes for 124 yards last week.
- Christian McCaffrey ($9,000) played 92.1% of snaps last week, the first week he didn't play every offensive snap, but his workload remained mostly unchanged with 24 carries and 4 targets. He also saw six red zone chances to add to seven from the first two weeks. We can treat him more or less the same as we would with Cam Newton because his usage is locked in.
- Greg Olsen ($6,000) drew 7 of Allen's 26 attempts, including 3 of 6 deep targets and 3 of 6 red zone targets, an elite workload for a tight end. Of note, the Houston Texans rank sixth in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.
- D.J. Moore ($6,400) had just two targets last week but did score on a long touchdown. Meanwhile, Curtis Samuel ($5,800) had 7 targets (29.2%) and 3 red zone looks.

Houston Offense Notes
- Deshaun Watson ($8,200) has been quite good in 2019, ranking well above league-average in Passing NEP per drop back (0.31) but runs into the 7th-ranked pass defense in the league in Week 4. Carolina's league-fastest pace by context-adjusted seconds per play presents a pace-up matchup, however, and Watson grades out as a top-five play on FanDuel at a salary of $8,200, according to my simulations.
- DeAndre Hopkins ($8,700) still has a 30.4% target share and 34.9% of the team's air yards but did drop to a 20.6% target share and just 15.1% of the air yards in Week 3 when Kenny Stills ($5,400) played on 53.3% of snaps and ran 61.0% of routes, both season-highs for him. Stills commanded 39.2% of the team's air yards in the last week and had 6 targets of his own, compared to 7 for Hopkins. Will Fuller ($5,900) is being treated as a full-time player, so Hopkins has threats for targets through three weeks. At $8,700, Hopkins is a tournament play when stacking Watson but doesn't demand a roster spot in cash-game lineups by any means.
- Game flow predicts more of a Duke Johnson ($5,300) game than a Carlos Hyde ($5,900) game, but each is a tough sell even in the $5,000 range with Wayne Gallman ($5,800) lurking.

Core Plays: Christian McCaffrey, Deshaun Watson
Secondary Plays: Greg Olsen
Tournament Plays: DeAndre Hopkins, Curtis Samuel, Will Fuller, D.J. Moore

Tennessee at Atlanta

Tennessee Offense Notes
- Marcus Mariota ($6,900) has been a bottom-five starting quarterback in terms of passing efficiency and ranks a middling 20th in deep-ball attempt rate among 38 relevant passers through Week 3. The Atlanta Falcons pose a beatable matchup at 20th in numberFire's adjusted pass defense numbers, but the slow pace of each team gives him a low projected ceiling (21.4 as a 75th-percentile outcome).
- Problematically, Mariota has spread the ball around to everyone other than Delanie Walker ($5,700, 24.1% target share), and nobody other than Walker (7.0 targets per game) averages even 5.0.
- Derrick Henry ($7,000) and Dion Lewis ($4,900) have essentially split snaps down the middle this season, with Henry getting less work when trailing. numberFire's algorithm gives Tennessee just a 41.3% chance to win this game. Despite that, Lewis doesn't ever see enough volume to justify DFS consideration.

Atlanta Offense Notes
- The Tennessee Titans do rank 4th in adjusted pass defense but are 32nd in pressure rate after adjusting for opponent, so Matt Ryan ($7,900) could have a better matchup than the overall metrics suggest. Despite that, Ryan is priced up, and there are pace concerns in this game.
- Austin Hooper ($6,400) has run at least 73.1% of routes in every game so far and is now a home favorite with a solid implied team total. He ranks second on the team with an 18.2% target share.
- Julio Jones ($8,500) owns a 24.8% target share and 36.2% of the Falcons' air yards this year. The Titans rank 11th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers in 2019, but they do rank 24th in adjusted yards per attempt allowed on deep passes. Jones ranks third in the NFL with 10 deep targets.
- Devonta Freeman ($6,200) played 90.2% of snaps last weekend after Ito Smith played only 3 snaps, and he could set up for a heavy workload again in Week 4 as a home favorite. There's enough uncertainty -- and lack of efficiency from Freeman -- to keep Freeman as more of a secondary play, though.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Delanie Walker, Austin Hooper, Devonta Freeman
Tournament Plays: Julio Jones, Matt Ryan

Oakland at Indianapolis

Oakland Offense Notes
- This is an ugly game from a pace standpoint, and the over/under is none too exciting either. However, both defenses are below-average in each facet, and the Oakland Raiders rank 4th in adjusted pressure rate offensively, while the Indianapolis Colts are 24th on the other end. That should help Derek Carr ($6,800) find time to throw. Carr has been about league average this season through three games.
- Darren Waller ($6,700) had 14 of 34 targets (41.2%) in Week 3 and now has a 30.2% target share on the full season. He played 89.8% of snaps and has entered matchup-proof status with that workload. Waller also hasn't scored yet despite 267 receiving yards, so he should see regression coming his way.
- Aside from Waller, Tyrell Williams ($5,900) is the only other relevant pass-catcher on the team, as he has run at least 94.7% of routes in every week. Indianapolis ranks 29th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers.
- Josh Jacobs ($6,000) has failed to play even half of the Raiders' snaps the past two weeks while trailing, and now he's a seven-point underdog.

Indianapolis Offense Notes
- The Raiders don't project to get much pressure on Jacoby Brissett ($7,300), who has doubled-up the league-average in per-play passing efficiency through three weeks.
- We'll have to track T.Y. Hilton's ($7,400) status throughout the week, but in a dome against a bottom-eight pass defense in just about every metric imaginable, he could feast.
- No secondary receiver stepped up in Week 3, but the targets would have to go somewhere. After Hilton's 28.1% target share, it's Eric Ebron ($5,300, 12.4%) as the target man. You can definitely take stabs on hitting the right pass-catcher, but it could be a naked Brissett type of week given the likelihood he'll continue to spread the ball around.
- Marlon Mack ($7,300) has played at least 62.0% of snaps in every game and is now a 7-point home favorite, so game script sets up for a huge workload here against a mid-level rush defense.

Core Plays: Marlon Mack, Darren Waller
Secondary Plays: Jacoby Brissett, Tyrell Williams, Eric Ebron
Tournament Plays: Colts WRs if Hilton is out

LA Chargers at Miami

LA Chargers Offense Notes
- The Los Angeles Chargers get a ripe matchup here against the NFL's worst defense, but there are definitely blowout concerns. Fortunately, the Chargers funnel their offense through one player primarily: Keenan Allen ($8,100). Allen has a 37.5% target share and 46.2% of the team's air yards, while boasting elite efficiency.
- Austin Ekeler ($8,100) averaged a 74.1% snap rate in the first two weeks before dipping to 65.0% in Week 3 while Justin Jackson ($6,200) got more involved. There should be enough to go around for both backs in such positive script, but Ekeler isn't as much of a lock as he had been.
- Philip Rivers ($7,800) grades out as a high-floor play with a possibly capped ceiling unless he racks up early touchdowns.

Miami Offense Notes
- The Miami Dolphins are an easy offense to figure out: just don't play them.
- If you're loading up on Chargers and want to bring it back with some Miami pass-catchers, then know that Josh Rosen's ($6,200) target distribution has been: Preston Williams ($5,200; 21.7%), Jakeem Grant ($4,500; 20.0%), DeVante Parker ($5,000; 16.7%), Kenyan Drake ($5,300; 11.7%), and Michael Gesicki ($4,600; 10.0%).

Core Plays: Keenan Allen
Secondary Plays: Austin Ekeler, Philip Rivers
Tournament Plays: Justin Jackson, Preston Williams, DeVante Parker

Washington at NY Giants

Washington Offense Notes
- Two bad pass defenses and two fast offenses make for what could be a shootout. The betting action backs it up.
- Case Keenum ($7,200) is priced appropriately this week and by no means is priced out, but he's not the strongest value on a per-dollar basis as a result. Keenum has posted 0.23 Passing NEP per drop back, roughly twice the league average of 0.13 through three weeks, and the New York Giants have let up 20-plus FanDuel points to every quarterback they've faced.
- Terry McLaurin ($6,300) easily has the best wide receiver workload (19.7%), especially when adjusted for high-leverage looks (43.8% of the deep and red zone targets, the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL), and owns 3 end zone targets.
- Trey Quinn ($5,400) and Paul Richardson ($4,700) are next on the pecking order at 16.4% and 15.6% of targets for game-stack purposes.
- Though the spread is tight, if Washington trails, it'll be Chris Thompson ($5,300) getting the majority of snaps in the backfield. Thompson has an 18.9% target share, 5th-highest among running backs.

NY Giants Offense Notes
- Removing sacks from his game log, Daniel Jones ($7,300) performed at twice the league average in passing efficiency and was around the average when factoring in the 5 sacks and his turnovers. Washington has been leaky all over the defensive side of the ball and ranks 29th in adjusted pressure rate.
- Wayne Gallman ($5,800) steps in as the value play of the week for Saquon Barkley, who is out for at least a month. Gallman played on 63.1% of the Giants' offensive snaps in Week 3 and is looking primed for a big workload as a 3-point home favorite.
- Evan Engram ($6,800) saw 22.2% of Jones' 36 passes in Week 3 and has at least 8 targets in every game so far. Washington ranks 29th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.
- They're even worse against receivers (31st) and are 28th in fantasy points per target allowed to the slot. Sterling Shepard ($6,500) drew a team-high 9 targets last week (25.0%) for 100 yards and a touchdown. That includes three of eight deep targets.

Core Plays: Wayne Gallman, Evan Engram, Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard
Secondary Plays: Terry McLaurin
Tournament Plays: Case Keenum, Paul Richardson, Chris Thompson

Kansas City at Detroit

Kansas City Offense Notes
- The highest over/under of the week and a game between two top-half teams in pace could spark fireworks.
- Patrick Mahomes ($9,200) leads the league in Passing NEP per drop back (0.59) and is 18 of 32 for 624 yards and 7 touchdowns on deep passes while chucking it deep at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. The Detroit Lions have done well to limit the deep pass, but that may not matter this week in the domed environment.
- Detroit ranks third in Target Success Rate allowed to wide receivers.
- Through three games, the target distribution is clear, with Sammy Watkins ($6,900; 28.3%) leading the way, ranking 8th among all wideouts in target share and 18th in the NFL in deep targets (7). Travis Kelce ($7,600; 22.1%) also ranks 8th at his position in target share, but he's 3rd among all players in deep targets (10). He also has the best combined deep and red zone target rate of any tight end in the NFL.
- Demarcus Robinson ($6,700) and Mecole Hardman ($6,500) each own 12 targets on the season but get high-leverage looks downfield, as Robinson (6) and Hardman (5) rank top-35 in deep targets.
- Damien Williams did not practice Wednesday. Last week, LeSean McCoy ($6,300) played 38.2% of snaps after spending the week on the injury report and getting hurt again. Darrel Williams ($5,500) played 54.4% of snaps. A timeshare is likely here.

Detroit Offense Notes
- The Lions will need to keep pace here, and one way that can happen is if Matthew Stafford ($6,900) can connect on the deep ball. Stafford ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in deep pass attempt rate and has posted above-average passing efficiency on a per-drop back basis.
- The target distribution favors Kenny Golladay ($6,700) at 26.2%, and Golladay is tied for 3rd in deep targets in the NFL. Week 1's usage is a bit peculiar compared to the two most recent games. Marvin Jones ($5,900) boasts a 24.2% target share in Weeks 2 and 3. Nobody else other than Golladay (29.0%) is above 11.3% (T.J. Hockenson ($5,200)). Combining deep and red zone target shares, Golladay and Jones each tie for 21st in the NFL.
- Kerryon Johnson ($6,500) is running into loaded boxes toward dreadful efficiency but played a 75.0% snap rate in Week 3, well above his mark in the first two contests. It's the best rushing matchup on paper in terms of adjusted rush defense and Rushing Success Rate allowed to running backs. Johnson has an underwhelming six targets through three games.

Core Plays: Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Kerryon Johnson, Kenny Golladay
Secondary Plays: Marvin Jones, LeSean McCoy
Tournament Plays: Darrel Williams, T.J. Hockenson

Cleveland at Baltimore

Cleveland Offense Notes
- A sub-20-point implied team total and a pace-down opponent isn't a great spot for the Cleveland Browns.
- Baker Mayfield ($7,500) has averaged -0.09 Passing NEP per drop back, ranking 34th among 38 relevant passers. He ranks 13th in deep ball rate but is just 11 of 23 on them, throwing a pair of picks and no touchdowns. The Baltimore Ravens rank 21st in deep ball adjusted yards per attempt allowed and have given up 200-plus yards on deep attempts in consecutive weeks.
- Mayfield's target distribution is concentrated to Odell Beckham ($7,900) and Jarvis Landry ($6,200), who have 22.9% and 22.1% target shares through three games. Their 10 and 8 deep targets, respectively, rank top-13 in the NFL. Baltimore is 25th in yards per snap allowed to the slot.
- Nick Chubb ($7,300) has a 14.4% target share of his own, 5.0 looks per game, and he just had 7 targets last week while playing 97.2% of snaps.

Baltimore Offense Notes
- Lamar Jackson ($8,300) ranks fifth in Passing NEP per drop back, culminating in 7 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and 863 yards passing. He's also run 24 times in the past two games and has been fantasy gold this season.
- Jackson also has been a delight for stacking purposes, feeding Marquise Brown ($5,700) and Mark Andrews ($6,100) market shares of 26.0% and 23.1%, respectively. Brown's cheap tag and 12 deep targets on the season (2nd-most in the NFL) elevate the all-or-nothing wideout from tournament-only territory to something closer to a core play. He'll just always have a low floor, given how he's used (17.0-yard average depth of target). Andrews ranks sixth at the tight end position in market share and is actually eighth in combined deep and red zone target share among tight ends.
- Mark Ingram ($7,800) isn't priced out, but it's close, as he has played 60.2% of snaps at most this season. He has averaged 14.3 carries per game and is primed for positive script. He'll need to score to pay off his tag.

Core Plays: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown
Secondary Plays: Nick Chubb
Tournament Plays: Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Mark Ingram

New England at Buffalo

New England Offense Notes
- The tiny over/under makes the New England Patriots' offense appear underwhelming despite solid prices outside of Tom Brady ($7,800).
- Brady faces a top-five pass defense this week, and my simulations signify a low ceiling (a 75th-percentile output of just 23.0 points). For as great as he's been this season, that's a tough justification.
- In two games without Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman ($6,900) and Josh Gordon ($6,200) each have a 25.0% air yards share, but Edelman has 21 targets to 15 for Gordon in Weeks 1 and 3. Phillip Dorsett ($5,900) is at 11 targets in those games and ran 91.3% of routes last week.
- The backfield easily could be a mess, but we can try to trust Rex Burkhead ($5,600) to replicate a 74.0% snap rate even with James White ($6,200) back in the fold. Sony Michel ($6,100) is untouchable after playing 22.1% of snaps last week and never cracking 50.0%.

Buffalo Offense Notes
- The Patriots boast the best offense in the NFL through three weeks, and the Buffalo Bills' total is just 17.75. The entire offense gets downgraded here.
- Josh Allen ($7,400) has a 75th-percentile outcome of just 21.4 FanDuel points here and has been a below-average passer while completing just 5 of 17 deep attempts and throwing it deep at the 24th-highest rate among 38 relevant passers. No defense has been tougher on deep throws in 2019.
- John Brown ($5,600) and Cole Beasley ($5,200) lead the team with a 23.7% target share (23 targets through three games), but Brown has just 4 deep targets. No Bill has multiple red zone looks yet.
- Frank Gore ($5,700) played 62.8% of snaps last week but is now a 7-point underdog against the NFL's best rush defense.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Julian Edelman, Rex Burkhead
Tournament Plays: Josh Gordon, James White

Tampa Bay at LA Rams

Tampa Bay Offense Notes
- It's a pace-up game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but not necessarily a plus matchup in a point-chasing spot.
- Jameis Winston ($7,500) has been bad and been pressured at the 30th-highest rate in the NFL after adjusting for opponents. The Los Angeles Rams generate pressure at the 13th-highest rate.
- Mike Evans ($7,700) cashed in on regression last week, and while the Rams rank 4th in FanDuel points per target allowed to receivers, they are 22nd in Target Success Rate. He has only tournament appeal on FanDuel at such a high price tag. LA does rank first in fantasy points per target allowed to the slot, so that's unfortunate for Chris Godwin ($7,100), but he still ran 95.3% of routes last week in the Evans demolition.
- The Rams' defense also ranks tops in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends and are second in fantasy points per target, leaving O.J. Howard ($5,900) in a letdown spot again.

LA Rams Offense Notes
- Jared Goff ($7,700) is in cash-game consideration at home, where his home/road splits turn him into an elite passer. Tampa Bay does rank 10th in pressure rate, and Goff notoriously struggles without a clean pocket.
- The Rams' receiving trio is looking a bit different this year, with Cooper Kupp ($7,000) owning the best workload (29.8%) by far, followed by Robert Woods ($7,100) at 22.1% and Brandin Cooks ($7,300) at 21.2%. Tampa has clamped down on the outside but is 20th in fantasy points per target allowed to the slot and 21st allowed to tight ends. It's shaping up as a Kupp week. Woods moves inside enough to take advantage, and the Bucs can be beaten on deep balls (18th).
- Gerald Everett ($4,500) is viable at bare minimum in a plus-spot in terms of game script and matchup. He's run more than 60% of routes in consecutive games.
- Todd Gurley's price ($6,800) keeps him in the mix despite his new role. He played 74.2% of snaps last week and has played at least 64.0% in all three games while netting at least 14 carries in every contest.

Core Plays: Cooper Kupp, Jared Goff
Secondary Plays: Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Todd Gurley, Gerald Everett
Tournament Plays: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin

Seattle at Arizona

Seattle Offense Notes
- Two top-10-paced offenses offer a potential shootout spot.
- Russell Wilson's ($7,800) Seattle Seahawks rank 27th in pass rate over expectation, and he'll need to be forced to throw here. If he does, he could set up for a ceiling game against a bottom-tier pass defense that ranks 25th against the deep ball.
- The Arizona Cardinals rank 30th in FanDuel points per target allowed to the slot, setting up for a prime Tyler Lockett ($6,600) opportunity. Lockett grades out as a top-three play in my model when accounting for his price.
- D.K. Metcalf ($6,100) has averaged a 91.8% route rate through three games and has 10 deep targets (Lockett has 8). At some point, he'll cash in on a huge game and is worth tournament stack consideration.
- The Cards also grade out bottom-three in tight end defense by Target Success Rate and FanDuel points per target. Will Dissly ($5,400) has a secure role with Nick Vannett shipped to Pittsburgh.
- Chris Carson ($7,000) is a hard sell at his salary given that he played 54.4% and 44.0% of snaps the past two games since his fumbling issues have sprung up.

Arizona Offense Notes
- David Johnson ($6,800) is too cheap after playing 86.7% of snaps in Week 3, virtually the same rate he had in Week 1. So when not hurt, he's had a workhorse role. In those two games, he has seven and nine targets. Seattle ranks 27th in Target Success Rate allowed to backs.
- Kyler Murray ($7,600) doesn't come cheap, despite ranking 29th in Passing NEP per drop back. He's only 18th in deep-ball rate but did run 8 times in Week 3 for 69 yards to elevate the floor.
- If stacking Murray, there are two options: Larry Fitzgerald ($5,900) and Christian Kirk ($5,900), who sit around 20th in target share among wide receivers (24.4% and 23.7%, respectively). Fitzgerald ranks 18th in combined deep and red zone target share among receivers. Seattle is 26th in fantasy points per target allowed to the slot where Fitzgerald and Kirk run the majority of routes.

Core Plays: David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Christian Kirk
Secondary Plays: Kyler Murray, Will Dissly
Tournament Plays: D.K. Metcalf

Minnesota at Chicago

Minnesota Offense Notes
- Woof, this game. For what it's worth, there's heavy action on the over and on the Vikings.
- It's hard to hate Dalvin Cook ($8,300), given that he's topped 22.0 FanDuel points in each game so far, but a top-three rush defense awaits, and Cook has been ceding red zone work to Alexander Mattison ($4,900). He's a tournament differentiation point, though.
- Adam Thielen ($7,000) and Stefon Diggs ($6,100) are also relegated to tournament-only status given the Minnesota Vikings' run-first offense (they're 32nd in pass rate over expectation). The Chicago Bears do rank 25th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers and are 24th in slot defense, for what it's worth, but volume and touchdowns will be scarce.

Chicago Offense Notes
- Mitchell Trubisky ($6,800) is 5 of 21 on deep attempts this year and ranks 27th among 38 relevant passers on a per-drop back basis. He now sets up against the 10th-best pass defense in the NFL.
- Allen Robinson ($7,000) has the fourth-best high-leverage target share in the NFL and owns 26.5% of Trubisky's targets. The Vikings sit 17th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers.
- David Montgomery ($6,000) played a season-best 66.7% snap rate on Monday night, handling 13 carries and 3 targets but seeing no red zone opportunities. There's a home favorite angle at a low cost if you want it.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: None
Tournament Plays: Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Allen Robinson

Jacksonville at Denver

Jacksonville Offense Notes
- A game between two of the NFL's slowest offenses and surprisingly slow-starting defenses offers little DFS appeal here.
- The passing offense for the Jacksonville Jaguars has been around league-average under Gardner Minshew ($6,700), but he throws deep at just the 27th-highest rate in the NFL.
- More of an afternoon-slate type of process, but D.J. Chark ($6,000) has a 40.0% air yards share and the best high-leverage target share on the squad. Dede Westbrook ($5,300) is second in the pecking order once adjusting for target value and has a lowly 4.7-yard average depth of target on the season. Chris Conley ($6,000) gets downfield looks (13.9-yard average depth of target), but again, few deep passes are thrown by Minshew.
- Leonard Fournette ($6,400) played every snap on Thursday night in Week 3 and has played 94.4% of snaps on the season, but he's maxed out at 12.2 FanDuel points despite 21.0 opportunities per game. He owns a 20.0% target share, 3rd-highest among running backs. The workload gives us a high floor for the price.

Denver Offense Notes
- Low prices could lead to some value plays for the home team, as Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) leads the NFL in red zone targets and is averaging 8.0 targets per game (a 22.0% share). The Jaguars rank just 16th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers and in yards per slot snap, where Sanders operates the majority of the time.
- Denver ranks 30th in pass rate over expectation, often deferring to the running back committee of Phillip Lindsay ($6,900) and Royce Freeman ($5,500). Lindsay cashed in on missed time from Freeman in Week 3, turning 21 carries and 5 targets into 27.0 FanDuel points. Freeman, though, has actually run more pass routes (56 to 55) and has 7 red zone carries of his own (Lindsay has 11).

Core Plays: Leonard Fournette
Secondary Plays: Emmanuel Sanders
Tournament Plays: D.J. Chark, Royce Freeman