FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 3 Monday Night
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Mitchell Trubisky ($14,500) - There is no hiding the fact that Trubisky hasn't had the start to the season Chicago Bears' fans were hoping for, as he has yet to throw a touchdown and passing for under 200 yards per game so far. Trubisky comes in dead last in the league for yards gained per pass attempt, sitting at 4.8, per ProFootballReference. He also ranks 29th out of 35 quarterbacks for completion rate, but hopefully, all of this is on the rise tonight. He is facing off against a Washington defense who have allowed 26.9 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks this season, which is the fifth-worst in the league.
The Bears have a modest 23.25 implied team total tonight, but given how bad the Washington defense is against the pass, Trubisky is in a spot to have his best game of the season. He comes in as our highest projected point-scorer on the night, sitting at 16.9 FanDuel points, over 2.5 points higher than the next closest player.
Allen Robinson ($13,000) - Despite Trubisky not having a strong start to the season, Robinson is providing some fantasy value, which should continue tonight. Robinson might be the best offensive player for the Bears and comes in leading the team in receptions, targets, receiving yards, target share, and market share of air yards, with the latter two via AirYards.com. Robinson has the surface-level stats to show he is valuable in the offense, along with having the underlying usage we are always searching for.
Robinson comes in as our highest projected receiver tonight for either team, in every category. He has the highest projected targets (8.46), receiving yards (97.94), receptions (4.75), and FanDuel points (11.8). Washington is dead last in the league when it comes to FanDuel points allowed per game -- 48.1 -- which should continue tonight with Robinson.
Adrian Peterson ($11,500) - When playing a single-game format, it can help to think through different game scripts and how that will affect players and their fantasy production. In regards to a player like Peterson, this can be massive in what level of involvement he has in the offense and thus, his scoring. What happens if Washington grabs a lead? What happens if they fall behind quickly? These are important questions to ask, since, the former is beneficial for Peterson, the latter, is horrible for him.
If Washington is behind in this game, we will likely see very little of Peterson, as he plays a minimal role in the passing game, which is held down by Chris Thompson out of the backfield. But, what if Trubisky isn't effective at quarterback for the Bears? What if he throws interceptions? Can Washington control the game via Peterson and the ground game? That is what we want to see in this situation, which is why our projections have Peterson going for 15.24 rushing attempts tonight, the most of any running back, along with 60.43 rushing yards, which is the second-highest.
There is a very clear path to fantasy production for Peterson tonight, which can be amplified via the MVP spot, but he is very game-flow dependent.
Vernon Davis ($7,500) - There are a few players who sit ahead of Davis when it comes to their usage within the offense, but he is in a spot to succeed tonight versus the Bears. So far this season, the Bears defense is in the top-five in terms of FanDuel points allowed per game versus wide receivers and runnings backs. However, the Bears are in the bottom-five when it comes to FanDuel points allowed per game to tight ends. As noted above, if the game script goes one way, Peterson could see a large volume of rushing attempts, if it goes the other way, Washington will need to pass the ball, which is where Davis comes into play.
Davis has seen 11 targets over the first two games, has the fourth-highest target share, the fourth-highest market share of air yards, and the fourth-most receptions, according to AirYards.com. While Davis may lack the flashy upside in most cases, he is a consistent part of the offense, who has a soft matchup to attack tonight.
Tarik Cohen ($9,500) - Our projections have Cohen coming in as the sixth-highest scorer tonight, along with being the fourth-best value play -- so let's talk about him. Cohen will continue to see limited work in the rushing game now that the Bears have David Montgomery, which is fine since we want to see him continue to excel in the passing game. This season, Cohen has 15 targets, which is the second-highest on the team, along with a rather low aDOT (Average Depth of Target) sitting at 5.1. He won't be seeing massive downfield throws, but since Trubisky has an aDOT of 7.8 this season, we should see him peppered with targets.
Washington is allowing 20.8 FanDuel points per game to running backs this season, along with being noticeably worse in catch rate against low aDOT passes compared to the league average. Cohen is projected for the fourth-most targets out of any player tonight and is in a matchup which should allow him to rack up the receptions and fantasy points.
Trey Quinn ($8,500) - Quinn is another value play who offers a bit of upside at his price point and has a consistent role within the Washington offense. Quinn is projected for a solid 5.61 targets tonight and should be able to reach value, especially if he continues to see red zone targets. Quinn is second on the team with three red zone targets through the first two weeks, bringing one of the targets in for a touchdown.
Washington only has an implied team total set at 18.00, if they are able to reach the red zone, there is a solid chance Quinn could be on the receiving end, which would make him one of the better point per dollar plays of the night.