FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Afternoon-Slate Helper: Week 3
The Week 3 afternoon NFL DFS slate on FanDuel features five matchups, which start between 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. EST. No game has a total above 50, so we probably won’t see many shootouts on this slate.
Our NFL DFS Matchup Heat Map will be referenced for all implied totals and spreads throughout this article, so be sure to check it out.
Let’s check out the best plays at various prices on this short slate.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants ($9,200)
Saquon Barkley continues to lead all running backs in Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry and Success Rate but has only found the end zone once. The New York Giants' offense ranked 25th in points per drive under Eli Manning, but the switch has been made to Daniel Jones.
The preseason stud should theoretically lead the offense to more points, but the jury is still out. Barkley seems to be able to produce no matter what, so any extra scoring opportunities are just icing on the cake.
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($7,000)
Chris Carson was the eighth-most efficient running back last season, averaging 0.8 Rushing NEP per carry. Through two weeks, he is the fifth-worst, averaging -0.23 Rushing NEP per carry.
% of runs where RB was first contacted before or at the line of scrimmage
1) Chris Carson 61%
2) Le'Veon Bell 60%
3) James Conner 59%
11) L. Fournette 53%
29) Devonta Freeman 40%
30) Gus Edwards 38%
31) Marlon Mack 38%
32) David Johnson 26%
33 / Last) Alvin Kamara 15%
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 20, 2019
The Seattle Seahawks are doing him no favors, as they rank 28th in adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders. Fortunately for Carson, the New Orleans Saints' defensive line is allowing the most adjusted line yards. His newfound passing game role coupled with a projected boost in efficiency makes Carson a solid option at his price.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,100)
Chris Godwin is finally priced above Mike Evans, meaning DFS gamers should be pivoting to the former alpha. Evans has only seen two fewer targets than his teammate and is getting more high-value deep shots. Do you know who has been horrible at defending deep shots?
Deandre Baker is allowing over 25 yards per reception in his coverage and 21.1 yards per target. The rookie cornerback out of Georgia will likely be busy, as Jameis Winston has attempted the seventh-most deep shots among quarterbacks. Now is the time to buy Evans.
Mid-Priced Upside Plays
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($6,600)
After two targets in Week 1, Tyler Lockett saw 12 in Week 2. We should bank on his normal target share to be closer to the 12, especially in a soft matchup at home with the Saints.
NFL Target Separation Leaders (8 target min)
Josh Gordon - 3.44
Curtis Samuel - 3.12
Jakeem Grant - 3.10
Tyler Lockett - 2.57
Preston Williams - 2.55
Cole Beasley - 2.46
James Washington 2.33
— Matt Gajewski (@Matt_Gajewski) September 18, 2019
Lockett is going in the slot on 59 percent of snaps, so he’ll be matched up with P.J. Williams for a lot of the game. He is by far the weakest link on a Saints defense that ranks 28th in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers ($6,600)
Jimmy Garoppolo spread the ball out, connecting with eight different players against the Cincinnati Bengals. George Kittle suffered from this the most, only seeing three targets. This dropped his price to under $7,000 for the first time this season, meaning he can be rostered at a nice discount. Kittle is still a top-3 tight end in the NFL and we know what he is capable of after the catch. The monster game is coming soon.
Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants ($6,400)
Despite running a 4.42 40-yard dash, Evan Engram’s average target distance came in at 6.4 yards. This was because Manning opted to check the ball down often. The switch to Jones might hurt his raw volume, as the team may lean on Barkley more, but his average target depth should rise with a younger arm throwing the ball.
Top-5 tight ends in target share so far this year (before Sunday night's game).
1. Mark Andrews: 27.9%
2. Evan Engram: 24.7%
3. George Kittle: 24.5%
4. Delanie Walker: 24.5%
5. Darren Waller: 23.8%
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 16, 2019
Bargain Bin Prospects
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants ($6,000)
FanDuel didn’t predict Manning’s benching, so Jones checks in at the minimum pricing for a quarterback. He doesn’t need much to hit value and he’ll have a full array of weapons on Sunday with Shepard back.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a sneaky good start defensively, ranking sixth in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play through two weeks, but one area where they have struggled is generating pressure. They only have four sacks and rank 27th in adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders.
Jones thrived from a clean pocket in college and the Giants line looks to be one of the strongest in the league in both pass and run-blocking. The rookie should have ample time to scan the field and find his weapons.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers ($5,800)
Cam Newton was noticeably hobbled by his aggravated foot injury, as he was missing wide-open receivers by a mile in the Thursday night game against the Bucs. He will likely rest this week, opening the door for Kyle Allen to get the starting nod.
Highest percentage of uncatchable passes through two weeks:
Cam Newton 34.2%
Mitchell Trubisky 27.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick 27.3
Kirk Cousins 27.0
Kyler Murray 22.9
Matthew Stafford 22.9
— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) September 16, 2019
Allen was an undrafted quarterback out of Houston, so the ceiling will likely be capped on this offense. The good news is that he has two healthy feet and will be able to step into throws, unlike Newton.
This will help Curtis Samuel, as he has been getting wide open with 3.12 yards of separation when targeted, good for third among receivers. Samuel has only seen a catchable ball on less than half of his targets, so Allen just needs to give him a chance and he should smash value.
Jonathan Taylor Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice Jonathan Taylor Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jtsmittyyy. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.