4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 3
Fantasy value can be defined in so many ways. In season-long leagues, one might determine value by looking at output compared to draft position. In daily leagues, we're often looking at output per $1,000 in salary.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value players jump out and will have wildly high ownership, while others aren't as obvious. To make your decisions easier, we're here to crunch the numbers and do our best to point out those bargains to you.
So, what are we waiting for? Let's go digging for value!
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DraftKings Price: $5,400
Projected Points: 20.5
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.79
While Jameis Winston looked better than Cam Newton during last week's win over the Carolina Panthers, he didn't exactly light it up from a fantasy standpoint, which is nothing different than people saw in Week 1.
Winston's -0.62 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back in Week 1 was the lowest among all quarterbacks. Though that number improved dramatically to 0.20 in Week 2, the fantasy points didn't follow in what was a rain-drenched snoozefest of a game.
Winston has posted just 10.06 and 13.22 DraftKings points in the first two weeks respectively. Fortunately for him and those willing to take a chance on him in tournaments this week, he gets an opponent that could bring out his best. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the New York Giants in Week 3 as they look to go 2-1.
The Giants are giving up 29.31 DraftKings points per game through the first couple of weeks, the third-most in the NFL behind the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals (more on them later). The Giants rank second worst in the league in numberFire's Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play.
In three games against the Giants in his career, Winston has scored no fewer than 16.56 DraftKings points. While that doesn't seem like a lot, even that floor represents a value of 3.07 DraftKings points per $1,000 at his $5,400 price this week. numberFire projects him for a more palatable 20.5 DraftKings points against the Giants this week, which would represent 3.79 DraftKings points per $1,000, our highest projected quarterback value on the slate.
Frank Gore, RB, Buffalo Bills
DraftKings Price: $4,400
Projected Points: 11.3
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.58
Gore, the NFL’s fourth all-time leading rusher, has an opportunity to be more than a borderline fantasy play this week, as his rookie teammate Devin Singletary could miss the game with a hamstring injury. Singletary didn’t practice on Thursday, and his absence would mean a boost in work for the ageless University of Miami product.
Gore saw limited work in Week 1 as the Bills got down early against the New York Jets and used a Josh Allen-heavy approach for the comeback win. Week 2 saw more of a workload for Gore in a much better game script against the Giants, and he found the end zone for the first time this season. With the Bills as six-point favorites this week (the most they’ve been favored since Week 1 2017), a similar game script could play out again.
Happily for Gore and those who would choose to use him, the Bills will be facing the Cincinnati Bengals, every running back's favorite punching bag. The Bengals are giving up an almost-hard-to-imagine 42.85 DraftKings points to opposing backs through two weeks. They gave up two touchdowns to backs in Week 1 and another three in Week 2, a 41-17 slaughter at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers.
Our models say Gore is in line for a solid return in relation to his DraftKings price, and that's with Singletary projected to see a limited amount of work. We currently have him pegged for 11.3 DraftKings points this week, a projected value of 2.58 points per $1,000. If Singletary is ruled out, then expect a boost in the projection.
Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
DraftKings Price: $3,600
Projected Points: 12.9
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.57
While they haven't been ruled out yet, it would be an absolute shock to see either DeSean Jackson or Alshon Jeffery take the field in Week 3 against the Detroit Lions. Jackson and Jeffery exited last week's game against the Atlanta Falcons due to groin and calf injuries, respectively.
While Zach Ertz saw a team-leading 16 targets in their absence, the biggest winner from a fantasy perspective is, arguably, fifth-year wideout Nelson Agholor. Agholor dropped what was a sure-fire game-winning score in the fourth quarter of the Philadelphia Eagles' 24-20 loss to the Falcons last week (though he did make up for it somewhat with a 43-yard catch moments later), but you're not going to see many DFS players upset with his final performance.
Carson Wentz targeted Agholor 11 times last week, connecting with him 8 times for 107 yards and a score. With injuries to Jackson, Jeffery, and Dallas Goedert, expect Agholor to be very busy once again. In the 31 games Agholor has played with Jeffery since he joined the Eagles, he's averaged 11.4 DraftKings points. In the three he's played without Jeffery, that number has jumped to 14.3.
For those looking to use him, it seems like DraftKings salaries were set before the Eagles-Falcons game was over, as Nelson's Week 3 salary is just $3,600. It's hard to find any oft-used wide receiver for that price, let alone one who could easily once again see double-digit targets. We currently project Agholor for 3.57 DraftKings points per $1,000 this week, the highest-projected wide receiver value on the slate.
Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers
DraftKings Price: $3,700
Projected Points: 8.9
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.39
Cam Newton looks increasingly unlikely to play this week. As of yesterday, he was in a boot, which -- this just in -- is not an indication of health. While Cam has not looked fully healthy this year, and it's negatively affected his play (no quarterback through two weeks has thrown a higher percentage of uncatchable passes), he's still had a positive affect on Greg Olsen's value.
Look, I have done no specific research to back this particular hypothesis (that's right, folks, pure, unadulterated speculation!), but it stands to reason that a (now) non-mobile quarterback who struggles with accuracy on deeper passes would look to his trusty long-time tight end for higher-percentage throws.
He's certainly looked Olsen's way heavily in Weeks 1 and 2, targeting him nine times in each game. Olsen, who led the league in air yards in 2016, his last fully healthy year, was second to only Ertz in air yards heading into Week 3 (Delanie Walker passed both in the Tennessee Titans' loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last night).
Given that Newton could miss this week's game, there is concern how Olsen would connect with the Panthers' Week 3 starter, who Ian Rapoport expects to be Kyle Allen. Allen's started one game in his career, a 33-14 win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 17 last year. In that game, the Panthers' second-highest targeted player was tight end Ian Thomas (Olsen didn't play).
One game isn't a lot to get excited about, but it might be when coupled with the Arizona Cardinals' poor tight end defense. The Cards have thus far given up 34.15 DraftKings points per game to the position. In Week 1, T.J. Hockenson burned them for 131 yards and a score. Mark Andrews followed with a similarly strong 112-yard, one-score performance last week.
We currently have Olsen projected for a baseline 2.39 DraftKings points per $1,000, but we have his upside projected at a much more enticing 5.10. He's a strong tournament option this week who will likely have lower ownership compared to a guy like Andrews, who people will be drooling over in a 52-point total affair against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Ian Goldsmith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ian Goldsmith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username zoidbergs_revenge. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.