Daily Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Primer: Week 3
If you're hoping to save money at the wide receiver position this week, you're in luck. There are a number of good value plays available on the slate, and even some of the best receivers of the week are priced reasonably. If you play your cards right at receiver, you should be able to get solid production while still being able to spend on some high-priced superstars elsewhere.
In this preview, I'll break down the wide receivers into three categories based on FanDuel's prices: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around are more expensive, but their ceiling is high enough that you should consider prioritizing them in your lineup. Value plays are cheaper options who usually come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are guys you might normally consider at their price tag but who have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to live up to their usual expectations.
All references to betting totals and spreads are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Receivers to Build Around
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($8,900) -- Hopkins is the most expensive wide receiver on the slate, but he's actually slightly discounted coming off a poor Week 2 performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars. There's no reason to think his slump will continue, so it's a good time to buy him against a Chargers secondary playing without Derwin James. Through two weeks, Deshaun Watson has been the most aggressive quarterback in the league, attempting a league-high 32 percent of his passes 15 or more yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions. Eight of those downfield targets have been directed at Hopkins (four per game). That's an increase from last season, when Hopkins saw an average of 2.8 targets per game at 15 yards downfield.
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys ($7,700) -- Cooper has a 24.2 percent target share through two games, which actually trails Michael Gallup for the team lead. Gallup, however, will miss two-to-four weeks with a knee injury. In his absence, Cooper's target share should get a boost. There's some risk in using Cooper against the Miami Dolphins, since the Dallas Cowboys are likely to win in blowout fashion. However, with an implied total of 34.5 points for the Cowboys, there should be plenty of scoring early in the game while Cooper is still on the field.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,600) -- In each of the first two weeks, I recommended using the slot receiver facing the New York Giants, and I'm going back to the well again. In 2018, the Giants allowed the second most yards per target to slot receivers (9.4) and they're even worse this season (12.0 yards per target) according to Sports Info Solutions. Godwin leads the Buccaneers with 11 targets from the slot. Here's a look the primary slot receivers against New York through two weeks.
|Week||Slot WR||Catches-Targets||Yards||TDs||Fantasy Points|
|Week 1||Randall Cobb, DAL||4-5||69||1||14.9|
|Week 2||Cole Beasley, BUF||4-4||83||0||10.3|
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($7,000) -- Golladay is surprisingly cheap for having seen 19 targets through two games and racking up 33.9 fantasy points. He also draws a favorable matchup this week against a struggling Philadelphia Eagles secondary. Eagles primary outside cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Ronald Darby have been brutal this season. In fact, according to Pro Football Reference, no cornerback has allowed more fantasy points in coverage than Douglas.
Golladay is also likely to see a favorable game script in this matchup, as the Eagles are favored by 6.5 points, likely forcing the run-oriented Detroit Lions to throw at a higher rate than usual.
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($6,200) -- According to Sports Info Solutions, Saints cornerbacks Eli Apple and Marshon Lattimore have combined to allow five receptions on eight targets for 185 yards when in coverage 10 or more yards downfield. Metcalf will be the most likely beneficiary in the Seattle Seahawks' offense. Through two weeks, Russell Wilson has attempted 16 throws at 10 or more yards downfield, with nine directed at his 6'4" rookie receiver.
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens ($6,100) -- Per Sports Info Solutions, seven of Brown's team-high 18 targets have been at least 15 yards downfield. No other Ravens receiver has seen more than three such targets. Brown will have a chance to cash in on some of those opportunities against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs secondary in what is likely to be a high-scoring game. Here's a breakdown of how opposing quarterbacks have fared throwing 15 yards downfield versus Kansas City this season.
|Throws 15+ Yards Downfield vs KC||8-12||66.7%||20.1||2-0|
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($5,900) -- Fitzgerald is not only seeing a high volume of targets, but he's seeing the most valuable types of targets in Kliff Kingsbury's new offense. Over the offseason, I wrote about the concept of high-yield targets (the targets which produce the most fantasy points). So far this season, Fitzgerald leads the NFL with 11 high-yield targets -- already nearly halfway to his 2018 total of 24. Arizona is throwing the ball on 73 percent of its plays so far. With that type of passing volume and Fitzgerald's role within the offense, he's a safe play every week.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Philadelphia Eagles ($4,600) -- While he's only an option as a tournament dart throw, Arcega-Whiteside has high upside with Alshon Jeffery expected to miss a few weeks. Since the start of 2018, only Zach Ertz has been targeted more often in the red zone by Eagles quarterbacks than Jeffery. In three seasons at Stanford, Arcega-Whiteside was targeted in the red zone 40 times and hauled in 22 touchdowns -- an incredible 55 percent touchdown rate, according to Sports Info Solutions. Arcega-Whiteside should see some of those targets that are typically directed at Jeffery.
Receivers to Avoid
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($8,200) -- Adams has seen 17 targets through two weeks, so the workload continues to be there. Unfortunately, he now plays in Matt LaFluer's offense, which is just as conservative with Aaron Rodgers as it was last season in Tennessee with Marcus Mariota. Through two weeks, 39 percent of Rodgers' pass attempts haven't even traveled past the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. Additionally, Adams has seen just five targets 10 or more yards downfield (2.5 per game). In 2018, Adams was on the receiving end of 71 targets at 10 or more yards, an average of 4.7 per game. Unless Rodgers starts throwing downfield again, Adams isn't going to be the same fantasy weapon as in the past.
John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,700) -- Racking up 50.5 fantasy points through two games, Ross has been a problem for opposing defenses. However, he'll likely draw consistent coverage from Buffalo Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White in this matchup. In 90 coverage snaps this season, White has allowed just 10.5 total fantasy points to receivers when targeted, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Ryan McCrystal is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan McCrystal also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username cfbfilmroom. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.