NFL

Daily Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Simulations for Week 2

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Quarterback

Cash-Game Standouts

With 2x values being commonplace at quarterback, we should seek a higher threshold. These eight passers hit 3x value most frequently in the simulations.

Players Salary 3x Value
Jacoby Brissett $6,000 39.3%
Lamar Jackson $8,200 35.7%
Jared Goff $7,600 35.2%
Derek Carr $6,600 34.9%
Dak Prescott $7,700 33.5%
Tom Brady $7,800 33.4%
Ben Roethlisberger $7,600 33.2%
Deshaun Watson $8,500 32.8%


- Even at $9,000, Patrick Mahomes just barely missed this list (32.8%).
- On a similar note, Lamar Jackson stands out as a stud performer at a high price tag.
- Despite leading the pack in 3x value frequency, Jacoby Brissett's median projections were just 15.9 FanDuel points, and his 75th-percentile projection was just 20.9. He's a low-ceiling play.

High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays

There's no actual way to quantify the "best" plays on a slate, but digging into floor versus ceiling projections seems to show promise. In what I simplified into something called boom-or-bust rate (percentage of games hitting 3x value versus percentage of games falling shy of 2x value), these plays stand out.

Player Salary Boom/Bust Ratio
Lamar Jackson $8,200 1.45
Patrick Mahomes $9,000 1.35
Jacoby Brissett $6,000 1.34
Jared Goff $7,600 1.32
Dak Prescott $7,700 1.20
Derek Carr $6,600 1.15
Deshaun Watson $8,500 1.13
Tom Brady $7,800 1.13
Ben Roethlisberger $7,600 1.11


- It's hard to hate this list of passers with more 3x games than sub-2x games.
- Of course, we shouldn't consider Brissett or Derek Carr particularly high-ceiling plays, but this may be the best list of all-around quarterback plays I could come up with by narrowing down the field with filters and not cherrypicking.

Tournament Standouts

What about looking just at raw projections? These quarterbacks have the highest 75th-percentile outcome in the sims.

Players Salary Boom/Bust
Ratio
50th
Pct
75th
Pct
90th
Pct
Patrick Mahomes $9,000 1.35 23.19 28.71 33.94
Lamar Jackson $8,200 1.45 21.75 27.30 32.32
Deshaun Watson $8,500 1.13 21.91 27.08 31.34
Jared Goff $7,600 1.32 19.70 25.26 29.53
Tom Brady $7,800 1.13 19.94 25.14 30.04
Dak Prescott $7,700 1.20 19.67 24.93 29.21
Drew Brees $8,000 0.78 19.20 24.44 28.38
Ben Roethlisberger $7,600 1.11 19.27 24.42 28.92


- This really is an obvious list, but it's pretty important to keep tabs on what a player's true, realistic ceiling is. Spending down at quarterback can help your lineup hit a high point-per-dollar threshold, yet seeking the highest raw point projections generally require spending up at the position.
- The highest 75th-percentile score of a quarterback below $7,500 belongs to Andy Dalton ($7,200; 22.3).

Bust Candidates

I'm not sure how helpful this'll be, but these quarterbacks appear as the least likely to hit 2x value.

Players Salary Less Than 2x
Joe Flacco $6,400 48.1%
Gardner Minshew II $6,400 43.6%
Kirk Cousins $7,300 42.9%
Ryan Fitzpatrick $6,200 42.4%
Case Keenum $6,900 40.0%
Eli Manning $6,400 39.6%
Russell Wilson $7,600 38.9%
Marcus Mariota $7,400 38.4%


- The biggest name to note for me is Russell Wilson in a game that could either be a shootout or could be a pace-down dud. His 75th-percentile projection is just 22.7.

Running Back

Cash-Game Standouts

Median value projections are much different among the positions. For example, every main slate quarterback is projected for at least 2x value this week, per numberFire's projections, and 10 passers are at 2.5x. No running back is at 2.5x, and 17 are at 2x.

With that in mind, these rushers projected for 2x value at least 50% of the time in the simulations.

Players Salary 2x Value
Josh Jacobs $6,500 57.9%
Alvin Kamara $8,700 57.7%
Matt Breida $5,600 57.4%
Austin Ekeler $7,500 56.9%
Damien Williams $6,600 53.8%
Todd Gurley II $7,000 53.4%
James Conner $7,700 53.4%
Saquon Barkley $9,200 52.6%
Adrian Peterson $4,800 52.5%
Leonard Fournette $6,900 52.0%
Chris Carson $7,400 51.9%
Aaron Jones $6,400 50.1%


- Josh Jacobs played a huge workload (74.1% of snaps) in Week 1 but saw just one target and is in a projected negative script against the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite that, he appears worth every penny in head-to-heads and double ups.
- Matt Breida is another standout in the value range and projects for a big enough workload to pay off his tag, even if he does split some time with Raheem Mostert.
- Spending up at running back is rarely a bad thing to do on FanDuel. Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) just missed this cutoff (49.4%).
- Adrian Peterson has a 75th-percentile projection of just 15.2, making him a tough player to justify in tournament lineups.

High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays

Here are the boom/bust ranks for rushers. Again, that's the rate of 3x-or-better games compared to games shy of 2x value.

Players Salary Boom/Bust
Ratio
Matt Breida $5,600 0.80
Josh Jacobs $6,500 0.72
Austin Ekeler $7,500 0.67
Alvin Kamara $8,700 0.66
Adrian Peterson $4,800 0.60
James Conner $7,700 0.59
Damien Williams $6,600 0.54
Todd Gurley II $7,000 0.51
Leonard Fournette $6,900 0.50
Saquon Barkley $9,200 0.49
Chris Carson $7,400 0.49
Duke Johnson $6,100 0.48
Ezekiel Elliott $8,500 0.47
Aaron Jones $6,400 0.45


- Maybe I'm too low on Peterson after all. Again, the main issue is the capped ceiling.
- James Conner grades out as one of my favorite non-elite-priced backs this week as a home favorite. Leonard Fournette also pops to me despite his status as a road underdog. Fournette played 86.2% of snaps and ran a route on 69.4% of drop backs last week, while seeing 6 total targets.

Tournament Standouts

These running backs have the highest 75th-percentile outcomes this week.

Players Salary Boom/Bust
Ratio
50th
Pct
75th
Pct
90th
Pct
Alvin Kamara $8,700 0.66 19.56 27.41 35.32
Saquon Barkley $9,200 0.49 19.03 27.12 34.08
Ezekiel Elliott $8,500 0.47 16.73 25.01 31.46
James Conner $7,700 0.59 16.27 23.82 29.43
Austin Ekeler $7,500 0.67 16.56 23.32 29.96
Dalvin Cook $7,900 0.39 15.43 22.15 28.33
Chris Carson $7,400 0.49 15.19 21.94 27.42
Josh Jacobs $6,500 0.72 14.74 21.00 25.68
Derrick Henry $7,500 0.36 14.29 20.67 25.94
Todd Gurley II $7,000 0.51 14.78 20.62 25.59
David Johnson $7,300 0.39 14.33 20.34 27.25
Leonard Fournette $6,900 0.50 14.19 20.31 24.74
Damien Williams $6,600 0.54 14.01 19.81 25.88
Matt Breida $5,600 0.80 13.17 19.06 24.97


- I love Alvin Kamara ($8,700) this week, and this helps me buy in. The only player who hit 30 FanDuel points in a higher rate of games than Kamara (18.3%) was Mahomes (19.7%). Whew, buddy.
- The really high ceilings, unsurprisingly, come from the priciest backs on the slate, which should at least give us some pause when building tournament lineups centered on the cheap backs.

Bust Candidates

We'll need an arbitrary cutoff to view the bust candidates, so here are the backs projected for at least 7.0 FanDuel points (38 of them) as a median output but who are least likely to hit 1.5x value.

Player Salary Less Than 1.5x
Latavius Murray $5,900 61.3%
Royce Freeman $5,900 58.8%
Kalen Ballage $5,100 56.2%
Tarik Cohen $6,100 55.5%
Justin Jackson $6,100 54.5%
David Montgomery $5,800 52.8%
Mike Davis $4,900 52.3%
Carlos Hyde $5,400 49.9%
LeSean McCoy $5,800 48.5%
Phillip Lindsay $6,600 46.2%


- Additionally, among running backs above $7,000, Mark Ingram ($7,500) and Marlon Mack ($7,400) are most likely to fall below 1.5x value (42.5% and 42.2%, respectively.

Wide Receiver

Cash-Game Standouts

No wide receiver is projected for 2x value by numberFire this week, yet 31 are set for a median outcome that would grade out as at least 1.5x value.

Player Salary 2x Value
Keenan Allen $7,700 51.5%
Sammy Watkins $7,400 49.4%
Tyrell Williams $5,900 49.3%
Tyler Boyd $6,300 48.4%
JuJu Smith-Schuster $8,100 48.3%
Larry Fitzgerald $5,500 47.1%
Julian Edelman $7,100 46.5%
Davante Adams $8,200 46.2%
Michael Thomas $8,500 46.0%
Kenny Golladay $6,600 45.3%
Cole Beasley $5,000 43.8%
DeAndre Hopkins $9,000 43.7%
Christian Kirk $5,400 43.5%
Marvin Jones Jr. $5,700 43.3%
Brandin Cooks $7,000 43.2%
Adam Thielen $7,300 42.5%
Josh Gordon $6,300 41.3%
Amari Cooper $7,800 41.1%
Dede Westbrook $5,900 40.3%
Robert Woods $7,300 40.2%


- As I discussed on this week's Heat Check podcast, Keenan Allen is possibly the best wide receiver play on the board with the Los Angeles Chargers' injuries and his high target share (30.3% in Week 1).
- Sammy Watkins also should see a high target floor without Tyreek Hill, and the simulations find his salary to be fair.
- If spending up at running back, we have some options below $6,000 to target: Tyrell Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, Cole Beasley, and Christian Kirk.

High-Floor, High-Ceiling

For receivers, I think looking at 3x games compared to 1.5x games makes more sense than a 2x value cutoff for a bust. Again, 1.5x value should rank around 30th for the week based on numberFire's median projections.

Player Salary Boom/Bust Ratio3x ValueLess Than 1.5x
Keenan Allen $7,700 0.6825.0%37.0%
Sammy Watkins $7,400 0.6422.4%34.9%
Tyler Boyd $6,300 0.5822.4%38.6%
Michael Thomas $8,500 0.5621.3%37.7%
Larry Fitzgerald $5,500 0.5522.2%40.6%
Tyrell Williams $5,900 0.5420.6%38.4%
Julian Edelman $7,100 0.5120.2%39.4%
JuJu Smith-Schuster $8,100 0.5119.7%39.0%
Davante Adams $8,200 0.5020.0%40.0%
Kenny Golladay $6,600 0.4920.3%41.5%
Christian Kirk $5,400 0.4821.0%44.2%
Cole Beasley $5,000 0.4719.4%41.7%
Dede Westbrook $5,900 0.4319.4%45.2%
Marvin Jones Jr. $5,700 0.4117.1%42.0%
Brandin Cooks $7,000 0.4016.5%41.3%
Adam Thielen $7,300 0.4016.7%42.1%
DeAndre Hopkins $9,000 0.3714.5%39.1%
Mecole Hardman $4,700 0.3616.5%46.0%
Amari Cooper $7,800 0.3514.7%42.4%
Stefon Diggs $6,900 0.3314.3%43.3%


- Tyler Boyd's price drop to $6,300 is probably overstated after seeing 11 targets in Week 1.
- I love Julian Edelman in a matchup with the Miami Dolphins, who allowed 119 yards and 3 touchdowns to the slot in Week 1, according to Pro Football Focus.

Tournament Standouts

The rub always comes when seeking projectable, realistic ceilings for wide receivers. The expensive players with the heaviest volume always land at the top of the list in this regard.

Player Salary Boom/Bust Ratio 50th Percentile 75th Percentile 90th Percentile
Michael Thomas $8,500 0.39 16.08 24.13 31.48
DeAndre Hopkins $9,000 0.26 16.20 23.59 29.41
Keenan Allen $7,700 0.52 15.89 23.07 29.54
Davante Adams $8,200 0.37 15.31 22.79 29.16
JuJu Smith-Schuster $8,100 0.38 15.72 22.62 28.69
Sammy Watkins $7,400 0.44 14.69 21.62 27.35
Amari Cooper $7,800 0.25 13.28 20.22 25.36
Julian Edelman $7,100 0.38 13.39 19.67 25.82
Adam Thielen $7,300 0.29 12.80 18.91 24.37
Robert Woods $7,300 0.24 11.92 18.64 23.93
T.Y. Hilton $7,600 0.20 12.79 18.58 23.67
Brandin Cooks $7,000 0.29 12.50 18.38 23.35
Kenny Golladay $6,600 0.37 12.14 18.12 23.79
Tyler Boyd $6,300 0.43 12.15 18.04 24.30
Antonio Brown $7,800 0.14 11.53 17.94 23.18
Stefon Diggs $6,900 0.24 11.55 17.13 22.56
Allen Robinson II $7,200 0.17 11.66 17.10 21.81
Cooper Kupp $6,800 0.24 11.10 17.10 21.96
Tyrell Williams $5,900 0.41 11.76 16.71 21.40
Dede Westbrook $5,900 0.32 10.04 15.70 21.62
Larry Fitzgerald $5,500 0.42 10.37 15.58 20.93
Josh Gordon $6,300 0.22 10.91 15.50 19.80
John Ross III $6,400 0.19 10.54 15.31 19.86
Tyler Lockett $6,700 0.11 10.73 15.11 19.22
Christian Kirk $5,400 0.37 9.46 15.06 20.27


- As you can see, only two wideouts priced below $7,000 have a 75th-percentile outcome of at least 18.0 points: Tyler Boyd and Kenny Golladay.

Bust Candidates

Out of 51 wideouts with at least a 7.0-fantasy-point median projection, these are the most likely to fall below 1.5x value.

Player Salary Less Than 1.5x
Mike Williams $6,100 58.2%
Randall Cobb $5,500 56.8%
DJ Chark Jr. $5,400 56.0%
Marquise Goodwin $5,200 55.6%
Donte Moncrief $5,400 54.7%
Marquise Brown $5,700 54.5%
Albert Wilson $4,900 52.8%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $5,600 52.1%
Chris Conley $5,100 52.1%
Willie Snead IV $5,000 51.8%
Sterling Shepard $6,000 51.7%
Danny Amendola $5,400 51.4%
DK Metcalf $6,100 51.3%
Antonio Brown $7,800 50.9%
Corey Davis $5,700 50.4%
Trey Quinn $5,100 50.0%
Michael Gallup $6,200 50.0%


Tight End

Cash-Game Standouts

Four tight ends project for at least a 1.5x value threshold on numberFire because tight end is just not a high-value position, but we'll still dig into the best 2x value projections.

Player Salary 2x Value
Travis Kelce $8,000 49.5%
George Kittle $7,100 49.2%
Darren Waller $5,400 45.7%
Evan Engram $6,400 43.3%
Delanie Walker $5,900 37.4%
Mark Andrews $6,100 36.5%
Tyler Eifert $4,900 30.7%
T.J. Hockenson $6,000 30.0%
Jared Cook $6,000 29.6%


- There are four primary tight end plays this week: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Evan Engram, and Darren Waller. The first two don't need much justification. Engram just saw 14 targets, and Sterling Shepard is in concussion protocol, and Waller played 100% of snaps last week and is in a possible shootout.

High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays

I'll tweak the boom/bust cutoffs to 2x value versus 1.5x value to account for how awful wonky tight ends are in daily fantasy football.

Player Salary Boom/Bust
Ratio
2x
Value
Less
Than 1.5x
George Kittle $7,100 1.38 49.2% 35.7%
Travis Kelce $8,000 1.35 49.5% 36.6%
Darren Waller $5,400 1.13 45.7% 40.3%
Evan Engram $6,400 1.07 43.3% 40.6%
Mark Andrews $6,100 0.80 36.5% 45.9%
Delanie Walker $5,900 0.78 37.4% 48.0%
Tyler Eifert $4,900 0.55 30.7% 55.5%
T.J. Hockenson $6,000 0.55 30.0% 54.3%
Jared Cook $6,000 0.53 29.6% 56.1%


- It's the same list. High floors are elusive among tight ends. Even though the simulations like Tyler Eifert well enough, he likely won't be in my player pool this week.

Tournament Standouts

Player Salary Boom/Bust
Ratio
50th
Pct
75th
Pct
90th
Pct
Travis Kelce $8,000 1.35 15.88 23.45 30.36
George Kittle $7,100 1.38 14.07 19.81 24.99
Evan Engram $6,400 1.07 11.52 16.46 21.72
Darren Waller $5,400 1.13 9.84 15.56 20.53
Delanie Walker $5,900 0.78 9.13 14.91 19.20
Mark Andrews $6,100 0.80 9.67 14.17 18.87
Jared Cook $6,000 0.53 8.24 12.96 17.64
T.J. Hockenson $6,000 0.55 8.38 12.95 17.09
Vance McDonald $5,600 0.47 7.36 11.77 15.54
Tyler Eifert $4,900 0.55 6.56 10.92 14.70
Jimmy Graham $5,400 0.43 6.69 10.89 15.61
Jordan Reed $5,300 0.45 6.91 10.80 14.88
Kyle Rudolph $4,900 0.49 6.02 10.27 14.04
Eric Ebron $5,700 0.28 5.85 10.03 13.77


- These are the 14 tight ends with a 75th-percentile projection of at least 10 points, though there's a lot of bust potential near the bottom of the list, as well.

Bust Candidates

Basically everyone is a bust candidate at tight end. Of the 18 tight ends projected for at least 5 FanDuel points, 12 fell below 1.5x value in at least half of the simulations. The six who didn't are: Kittle, Kelce, Waller, Engram, Mark Andrews, and Delanie Walker.