4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 2
Fantasy value can be defined in so many ways. In season-long leagues, one might determine value by looking at output compared to draft position. In daily leagues, we're often looking at output per $1,000 in salary.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value players jump out and will have wildly high ownership, while others aren't as obvious. To make your decisions easier, we're here to crunch the numbers and do our best to point out those bargains to you.
So, what are we waiting for? Let's go digging for value!
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
DraftKings Price: $5,800
Projected Points: 22.9
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.94
The "Ben Roethlisberger struggles on the road narrative" has been all over the place for five years now. It started in 2014 when Ben put together a ridiculous 27.3 DraftKings points per game average at home whilst putting up just 16.1 on the road. It stayed at roughly the same split for three years and narrowed in 2017.
Despite hearing the trope throughout all of 2018, however, Roethlisberger quietly reversed the trend, averaging 1.6 more DraftKings points per game on the road than at home, en route to a career year. With a 49.0 line on tap for the Week 1 game against the New England D/ST, Ben was in a position to make a trend out of his new-found road success. It wasn't to be, however, as the third-most sacked quarterback of all time had a terrible evening, going just 27-for-47 for 276 yards and an interception. Home can't come soon enough.
At Heinz Field this week he'll get a chance to relive glory days when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Seattle Seahawks in a rematch of the 2006 Super Bowl. The teams have thrice played since that day I heard Hawks fans yelling angrily at the TVs in a bar. The 2007 and 2011 rematches were both one-sided affairs, with each ending--incredibly--in Steelers shutout wins. The third meeting, a 39-30 Hawks win in 2015, is more in line with what those using Big Ben on DraftKings this week are looking for.
The Steelers' implied team total of 25.5 is the sixth-highest of the week, and it's not hard to see why after what Andy Dalton was able to accomplish against the Hawks last week. Dalton threw for 418 yards, the first time in his career he's cracked the 400 yard barrier. He was not afraid to chuck it deep against the Hawks' secondary; his 162 air yards on passes of 16 or more yards led all signal callers.
After a frankly embarrassing Week 1, expect Ben and the Steelers to bounce back in Week 2. numberFire project's him as the QB3 for the week and have him providing 3.94 DraftKings points per $1,000, tops on the slate.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Oakland Raiders
DraftKings Price: $4,700
Projected Points: 15.7
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.34
Week 1 seemed like the week of the rookies, and Josh Jacobs led the way. The first-year back out of the University of Alabama was exactly as advertised. Jon Gruden fed Jacobs 24 times (including one catch), and Jacobs turned those into 113 total yards and two scores, becoming just one of 21 players in history to total 100-plus yards from scrimmage and two or more scores in his first career game ( Marquise Brown joined him on Sunday).
Jacobs' performance was good to rank him as the RB9 on DraftKings this past week; his 5.17 DraftKings points per $1,000 was second only to the Chargers' Austin Ekeler, who went absolutely nuts.
This week, Jacobs faces a Kansas City Chiefs team who ranks as the 11th-worst team in adjusted defensive net expected points (NEP) per play. The Chiefs are coming off a big win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but it was not without faults. They allowed Leonard Fournette to average 5.08 yards per carry as well as four catches on six targets.
It's hard to imagine Jon Gruden not feeding Jacobs the ball again this week. Running the ball well and clock management will be one of the Raiders' only friends on Sunday; if they try to have Derek Carr go tête-à-tête with Patrick Mahomes, it's goodnight, Irene. Gruden will feed Jacobs, just like he fed Doug Martin last year; Martin saw 39 carries in the Raiders' two losses to Kansas City in 2018, including 21 in a 35-3 losing effort.
Why, though, after Jacobs' big Week 1 would he even be a candidate to be a value play in Week 2? Simple. The Raiders played Monday night, and DraftKings had already set its pricing for the upcoming week. At only $4,700, he's a downright steal. Of course, you'll have to fight off everyone else who knows the same thing, but sometimes you just have to chalk it up. We have Jacobs projected to return the second-highest DraftKings points per $1,000 this week.
Tyrell Williams, WR, Oakland Raiders
DraftKings Price: $4,400
Projected Points: 12.1
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.75
I'm not going to go over the Antonio Brown saga here. You all know it, and some of it is too disturbing to even talk about. We do care what the saga has meant for the Raiders' season, however, and the long and the short of it is that it's been a catalyst to Tyrell Williams being in the discussion of break-out wide receivers.
Williams' initial break-out was in 2016 on an injury-plagued San Diego Chargers team who lost Keenan Allen in the first game of the season, a 33-27 overtime loss to the Chiefs. When Allen came back, however, Williams was relegated to a lesser receiving role on the team, and with the addition of Mike Williams, it was time for a move.
Oakland signed him to be a starter, but due to the roster chaos over the past week, he was catapulted to be the Raiders' WR1. He didn't wait to appease fantasy owners, finishing with six catches on seven targets for 105 yards and a score. It was enough to see a 26% jump in ownership in ESPN leagues. It would be shocking if he doesn't see another bump in ownership after this week.
His opponent, the Chiefs, are coming off a game in which they allowed D.J. Chark and Chris Conley to combine for 243 yards and two scores. Sure, it could have been Gardner Minshew's greatness exemplified, but it's more likely that KC's passing defense was suspect; they were the 10th-worst team by adjusted defensive passing NEP per play in Week 1, and Derek Carr knows how to exploit them...in Oakland at least.
In his last two starts against the Chiefs, Carr has gone 58-for-90 (64.4%) with 702 yards and six touchdowns. Carr had three 100-plus-yard receivers in those two games, and Jordy Nelson missed out on being the fourth by three yards. With a 52.5 total--the highest of the week--we could see a repeat, with Williams playing the starring role. We have him projected as the second-best value play of the week.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions
DraftKings Price: $3,000
Projected Points: 9.3
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.11
There is a legitimate case to be made for continuing with the Oakland Raiders value theme and putting Darren Waller into this spot. While that's a viable alternative (and Waller is numberFire's top-projected value play of the week at tight end), I'll mix it up a bit; enter T.J. Hockenson, the rookie out of the University of Iowa who set a rookie tight-end debut record with 131 receiving yards.
Detroit have never had a true stud tight end in the Matthew Stafford era. Eric Ebron teased getting there, but he finished no higher than the TE13 in his Motor City tenure. Brandon Pettigrew did end up as a TE1 in 2010 and 2011, though nobody was mistaking him for Rob Gronkowski; he finished as the TE11 and TE12 in those two seasons.
Hockenson, in one game, already looks leagues above those veterans, and he already seems to have Stafford's trust. The rookie garnered nine targets in Sunday's tie against the Arizona Cardinals, tied with Kenny Golladay for second on the team Danny Amendola). More impressive, however, is that his 142 air yards led all tight ends by a whopping 32 yards. His 15.8 average depth of target was fourth among all players who had at least five catches
We like Hockenson to continue to be heavily targeted this week as the Detroit Lions host the Los Angeles Chargers. We project him as the third-highest value play of the week, returning 3.11 DraftKings points per $1,000.
Ian Goldsmith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ian Goldsmith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username zoidbergs_revenge. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.