Daily Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Notes for Week 1

With Week 1 bearing down on us, it's time to get prepped for our daily fantasy football lineups.

numberFire has no shortage of tools -- lineup generators, fantasy projections, and more -- to help you round out your rosters, but some extra prep never hurt anyone. So, here are some notes to know about each and every game on FanDuel's main slate for Week 1.

The Slate

Buffalo at New York Jets
Baltimore at Miami
Kansas City at Jacksonville
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina
Tennessee at Cleveland
Atlanta at Minnesota
Washington at Philadelphia
Cincinnati at Seattle
Indianapolis at Los Angeles Chargers
New York Giants at Dallas
Detroit at Arizona
San Francisco at Tampa Bay

Buffalo at New York Jets

Spread: NYJ (-3) (% of Money on the Favorite: 91%)
Over/Under: 40.5 (% of Money on the Over: 80%)

The game with the second-lowest total on the main slate isn't a place to seek a lot of daily fantasy upside, but aside from Le'Veon Bell ($7,900), everyone is cheap.

Buffalo Offense Notes
- Josh Allen ($6,900) has a slew of new wide receivers at his disposal this season and projects as a mid-level play on his own in terms of our point-per-dollar value. His rushing numbers always keep him in play as a high-floor, high-ceiling option.
- No Bills wide receiver is projected for even six targets this week, but John Brown ($5,500) is set for the team lead at 5.89.
- Last season, no Bills player was on the receiving end of more than 20.9% of Allen's targets (Zay Jones [$5,000]).
- Devin Singletary ($5,300) projects for a large salary-relative workload of 12 carries and 3 targets. Underdogs with low implied team totals aren't generally where we look at with running backs, but the salary keeps Singletary in play as a tournament flier given that we don't know fully how he'll share work with Frank Gore ($4,900).

New York Offense Notes
- The Jets project as a low-level offense in this Week 1 matchup given the implied point total (21.75), but most of their assets are cheap.
- Le'Veon Bell ($7,900) isn't one of those, but he has some question marks about his workload after a 20-month layoff. Bell still is projected for the fourth-best workload among all main-slate running backs. The low offensive upside makes him a tough sell for cash-game lineups with cheap backs in abundance, though he's a player to keep in the core for GPPs due to the workload.
- Robby Anderson ($6,300), Jamison Crowder ($5,400), and Quincy Enunwa ($5,200) should share the workload, as all are projected for between 5.10 and 6.02 targets. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold ($6,700) has the third-lowest passing yardage projection of the week.

Core Plays
Le'Veon Bell

Secondary Plays
Josh Allen, Devin Singletary

Tournament Plays
John Brown, Robby Anderson

Baltimore at Miami

Spread: BAL (-7) (% of Money on the Favorite: 96%)
Over/Under: 38.5 (% of Money on the Over: 62%)

A one-sided affair is in order this week when the Baltimore Ravens travel south to face the Miami Dolphins in a a game that could yield the fewest plays of the week.

Baltimore Offense Notes
- After Lamar Jackson ($7,400) took over the Ravens' offense, no team threw less frequently, and they operated at the 28th-ranked expected pace based on pre-snap win probability. As a seven-point favorite, he shouldn't have to throw often, and that should sap play volume in this game. He's our top-projected value quarterback of the week.
- Mark Ingram ($6,600) sets up as a strong process play at a reasonable price tag as a heavy favorite against a weak rush defense (30th in adjusted rushing defense, per our metrics).
- Jackson didn't throw more than 17.0% of his passes to any one receiver last season, making him a hard stack candidate with a Ravens pass-catcher. Jackson is also projected for the second-fewest attempts of the week (31.3), and that kills the high-end upside for his receivers. Though they're cheap -- Marquise Brown ($5,000), Willie Snead ($4,800), and Miles Boykin ($4,500) -- none of them hit 15-plus FanDuel points in more than 6.0% of the simulated weeks.
- Tight end Mark Andrews ($5,400) does pop a bit and was Jackson's most efficient target last season (1.25 Reception Net Expected Points [NEP] per target on 20 targets). He's our eighth-best projected tight end value as a road favorite with a modest implied team total.

Miami Offense Notes
- You don't ever want to write off an entire team in DFS, but on a 12-game slate, the only angle for the Dolphins as a 7-point home underdog with a lowly 15.25-point implied team total is ownership leverage.
- The Ravens ranked second in adjusted pass defense last season and bolstered their secondary in the offseason.
- Even if you're banking on a Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,200) DGAF game, the realistic upside for the 'Phins isn't there to load up on their skill players.

Core Plays
Lamar Jackson

Secondary Plays
Mark Ingram

Tournament Plays
Albert Wilson ($5,000), Marquise Brown

Kansas City at Jacksonville

Spread:: KC (-3.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 86%)
Over/Under: 51.5 (% of Money on the Over: 47%)

A potential shootout with pass-happy teams makes for an intriguing DFS game stack opportunity. The Kansas City Chiefs ranked second in pass rate over expectation last year (and the Minnesota Vikings were third through Week 14 under John DeFilippo).

Kansas City Offense Notes
- The slate's highest implied total (28.0) belongs to the Chiefs despite the road matchup against the Jaguars.
- Patrick Mahomes ($8,700) isn't a must-play cash-game lock at this price, but no passer climbed past 30 FanDuel points more frequently in my simulations. He threw for 313 yards and a pair of interceptions against Jacksonville last year in Week 5. Think of him as a tournament differentiation point, as spending up at quarterback shouldn't be the norm.
- Damien Williams ($6,900) is the nominal starter in this game but will contend with LeSean McCoy ($5,800) for touches. Williams projects for the better workload in this game, but the cannibalization keeps them both in tournament-only territory with so many other cheap running backs to target.
- Tyreek Hill ($7,600) caught 4 of 7 targets for 61 yards last year in this matchup, but 2 of his targets were in the red zone, and 3 were at least 16 yards downfield -- primo usage. The 131 air yards indicate a ceiling for Hill against a weakened Jaguars defense.
- Sammy Watkins ($6,300) averaged 6.8 targets in nine games with at least a 75% snap rate, including the playoffs.
- Travis Kelce ($7,800) also had downfield usage (11.9-yard average depth) on his 8 targets versus the Jags last year; he caught 5 for 100 yards, and the matchup should be easier for him this year, based on the Jags' changes. Even at the salary, he's our second-best tight end value, and he's the most likely player to score on the week through the air (0.65 projected touchdowns).

Jacksonville Offense Notes
- Leonard Fournette ($7,200) faces last year's league-worst rush defense by our metrics and in Rushing Success Rate allowed to running backs. He's projected for the fifth-most rush attempts this week and is a borderline core play in such a promising spot with increased receiving after Week 10 last season.
- DeFilippo's Vikings threw at the third-highest adjusted rate last season while he was on the sideline, and the Jaguars' upgrade to Nick Foles ($6,500) should help out. Foles draws last year's 16th-ranked adjusted pass defense and, per the sims, is the second-most likely passer to hit four-times value.
- Dede Westbrook ($5,900) stands out among the wide receiving corps and projects to lead in volume after running at least 80% of the team's routes in his final 13 games.
- I'm the leader of the Chris Conley ($4,500) fan club, yet there is reason to consider him. He's $4,500, and Conley should play heavy snaps based on his Kansas City usage and D.J. Chark's ($4,900) uncertain status. You can do worse than a minimum-salary great athlete who will play snaps in a potential shootout.

Core Plays
Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Dede Westbrook

Secondary Plays
Leonard Fournette, Patrick Mahomes, Sammy Watkins

Tournament Plays
Damien Williams, LeSean McCoy, Nick Foles, Chris Conley

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina

Spread: LAR (-2.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 77%)
Over/Under: 49.5 (% of Money on the Over: 61%)

A game with a high total and plenty of big-play options creates a prime game-stack chance, though each team spreads the ball around, making it tough to pinpoint which stack will hit it big.

Los Angeles Offense Notes
- Todd Gurley's ($7,600) unpredictable Week 1 usage keeps him out of locked-in cash-game territory, but a 26.25-point implied team total against 2018's 21st-ranked rush defense keeps him in tournament territory.
- Jared Goff ($7,800) averaged 0.08 Passing NEP per drop back on the road in 2018, compared to 0.36 at home, and he ranked 23rd of 29 qualified passers in passer rating while under pressure last year, via PFF. The Carolina Panthers' pass rush projects well enough to look elsewhere at quarterback unless game stacking.
- Unsurprisingly, Brandin Cooks ($7,000) projects for the highest boom potential of the Los Angeles Rams' receivers, and Robert Woods ($7,000) should be pushed back to the outside with the return of Cooper Kupp ($6,800) to the slot. Woods' volume shouldn't dip as much as you may think with Kupp back. All three are worthy of consideration; I'd rank them Cooks, Kupp, and Woods.

Carolina Offense Notes
- Christian McCaffrey ($8,900) shapes up as the top running back play on the slate, even with talks of reduced snaps. The touches aren't supposed to go anywhere, and he leads all backs in projected opportunities and targets against last year's 25th-ranked adjusted rush defense.
- Talks of Cam Newton's ($7,900) rediscovered deep ball mesh with last year's 29th-ranked pass defense on deep attempts in terms of adjusted yards per attempt. His career average depth of target was 9.5 before dropping to 7.4 last season.
- Despite the breakout season, D.J. Moore ($6,200) cleared double-digit FanDuel points just four times last season due to scoring just twice on 788 yards (once every 394 yards). That should be closer to a touchdown every 100 yards, so positive regression is in the cards for Moore's second season.
- Curtis Samuel ($5,900) held a 31.2% air yards share in six games with at least two-thirds of the Panthers' routes run to close out the season. He actually projected better (17.6 average) compared to Moore (13.7) when running this game through our Sharpstack simulator.
- Greg Olsen ($5,200) averaged 5.0 targets in seven games with at least 75% of snaps last year and is at home in a neutral tight end matchup.

Core Plays
Christian McCaffrey, Brandin Cooks, Curtis Samuel

Secondary Plays
Cam Newton, Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, D.J. Moore

Tournament Plays
Greg Olsen

Tennessee at Cleveland

Spread: CLE (-5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 81%)
Over/Under: 45.5 (% of Money on the Over: 37%)

A slow-paced game with a modest total isn't the ideal stacking situation for DFS, and that's what we have in Cleveland -- with just 37% of the money on FanDuel Sportsbook coming in on the over. The Cleveland Browns fell from in 3rd adjusted seconds per play under Hue Jackson to 20th under Freddie Kitchens. The Tennessee Titans ranked 29th in adjusted seconds per play and 30th in expected pass rate, limiting fantasy potential.

Tennessee Offense Notes
- An offense without a certain quarterback situation, the Titans' implied total of 20.25 doesn't bode well for a full main slate against a pass defense that ranked fifth in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play last season.
- Derrick Henry ($6,800) is a volume-based season-long play but not the archetype we should be seeking in DFS as a road underdog, as he maxed out at three targets last season. Dion Lewis ($5,600) averaged 3.7 targets in three games as a clear secondary option behind Henry to close the season.
- Corey Davis ($6,200) was on the receiving end of 26.5% of Marcus Mariota's ($6,500) targets last year but averaged only 5.1 targets per game over his final seven. There's more competition for looks now.

Cleveland Offense Notes
- Baker Mayfield ($7,900) jumped to a 0.27 Passing NEP per drop back and 8.6 yards per attempt under Kitchens, compared to -0.06 and 6.6, respectively, under Jackson, meaning that Odell Beckham ($8,200) is upgrading to a passer who showed absolutely elite marks in the second half of last season.
- Jarvis Landry ($6,300) saw his target share drop to 21.3% after Kitchens (30.7% before), a difference of 11.3 to 6.9 targets per game and now has to contend with Beckham.
- David Njoku ($5,800) also saw a target drop from a 17.7% share (7.4 per game) to 14.0% (4.5) while the team's pace slowed. The Titans were the league's best defense in terms of fantasy points per target last season.
- As a 5-point home favorite with a 25.25-point implied total, Nick Chubb ($7,400) is projected for the second-most rushing attempts of the week, per numberFire's algorithm. Tennessee ranked 22nd in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs last season.

Core Plays
Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham

Secondary Plays
Baker Mayfield

Tournament Plays
Corey Davis, Rashard Higgins ($4,500)

Atlanta at Minnesota

Spread: MIN (-4) (% of Money on the Favorite: 20%)
Over/Under: 48.0 (% of Money on the Over: 84%)

The 48-point over/under is fourth-highest on the main slate, and there's action on the over, so this is probably going to be a chalky spot for tournament lineups -- but there's interesting data on the money backing the Atlanta Falcons. The Vikings ranked 3rd in pass rate over expectation under John DeFilippo and then leaned on the run (24th) after firing him after Week 14. The Falcons ranked fourth on the full season.

Atlanta Offense Notes
- Matt Ryan ($8,000) maintained a 115.8 passer rating in domes last season and 99.2 outdoors, while posting 8.7 yards per attempt indoors and 7.4 outdoors. He's drawing as the least likely main slate passer to hit three-times value.
- Julio Jones ($8,500) scored eight times last year, tied for the most he's had in six seasons. But with 1,677 yards, that was one score for every 209.7 yards, and that screams regression -- if Jones' usage ever actually changes. Xavier Rhodes' coverage still checks out okay, but PFF gave him a career-worst grade, and no matchup has ever stopped us from Jones before.
- Calvin Ridley ($6,500) averaged 45.0 air yards and 5.2 targets per game over his final five.
- Minnesota was a middling 13th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends, but Austin Hooper ($5,500) maxed out at 77 yards in a single game last season.
- Devonta Freeman ($6,700) faces a rush defense that was 24th in Rushing Success Rate allowed but 9th in Target Success Rate to backs.

Minnesota Offense Notes
- Dalvin Cook ($7,400) squares up against last year's 31st-ranked run defense as a home favorite. Atlanta ranked 31st in Target Success Rate to running backs, too. He's shaping up as chalk -- and rightly so. No back hit three-times value in the sims more often than Cook.
- Kirk Cousins ($7,400) threw just 27.0 times per game after the coordinator change last season.
- Adam Thielen ($7,400) and Stefon Diggs ($7,200) both project for roughly eight targets and can still get their work if the Vikings do commit to the run. After the coaching change, Diggs saw 7, 6, and 10 targets. Thielen had two, six, and four. Each will be in my player pool this week.

Core Plays
Dalvin Cook, Julio Jones

Secondary Plays
Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Devonta Freeman

Tournament Plays
Calvin Ridley

Washington at Philadelphia

Spread: PHI (-10) (% of Money on the Favorite: 92%)
Over/Under: 45.5 (% of Money on the Over: 35%)

Divisional games are always a bit scary early in the season. Our algorithms give the Philadelphia Eagles a 69.4% chance to win this game, and the 10-point spread really implies heavy action on the tough-to-stack Eagles. Washington operated at the 18th-fastest situation-adjusted pace last year, while the Eagles were 31st, and each team was bottom-three in situation-neutral pace by FootballOutsiders. Money is backing the under.

Washington Offense Notes
- With Case Keenum ($6,200) under center, Washington has an implied total of just 17.75. There isn't a whole lot here to latch onto while guessing how the new-look offense will operate while at a massive disadvantage in the trenches.
- Even with no skill position player above $6,000 on FanDuel, this is one of the hardest-to-peg offenses of Week 1 while almost assuredly playing from behind.

Philadelphia Offense Notes
- The Eagles are notoriously hard to stack in DFS but did rank eighth in pass rate over expectation last season. Carson Wentz ($7,600) is in the mix as a top-five point-per-dollar play while throwing in positive script against last year's 23rd-ranked pass defense in terms of Passing Success Rate.
- Zach Ertz ($7,100) faces last year's sixth-ranked tight end defense. Against them, he averaged 44.0 air yards on 14 targets. He's not a tight end to force in this week, though his status as a heavy home favorite is the checklist for DFS tight ends.
- Wentz targeted Alshon Jeffery ($6,700) on 18.7% of passes last year but now has deep threat DeSean Jackson ($5,600) to look to when airing it out, and his volatility checks out in the simulations to make him a tournament play. Game script is the biggest concern for the pass-game options, as volume isn't guaranteed.
- Miles Sanders ($6,000) and Jordan Howard ($5,800) should ice this game if it goes according to plan, but the two-back situation makes them hard to trust in Week 1 with value elsewhere.

Core Plays

Secondary Plays
Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery, Miles Sanders

Tournament Plays
DeSean Jackson

Cincinnati at Seattle

Spread: SEA (-9.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 72%)
Over/Under: 44.0 (% of Money on the Over: 68%)

A rough game to love from a game-stack standpoint, as the Cincinnati Bengals are double-digit road favorites with a 17-point implied total. The Seattle Seahawks were, by far, the most run-heavy team in the NFL last year, even after adjusting for expectation.

Cincinnati Offense Notes
- No A.J. Green and a depleted offensive line really limits the Bengals' offensive expectations here (their implied total is 17 points).
- Joe Mixon ($7,800) will be running behind an iffy line with a low implied team total, quelling his touchdown chances (0.13).
- Tyler Boyd ($6,900) is a double-digit target candidate in this script (he's projected for 8.0), but the touchdown equity is quite bad. He's a plus-one on a Seahawks stack after ranking third in opponent-adjusted Reception NEP per target last year among 100-plus target wideouts.

Seattle Offense Notes
- Seattle should throw more frequently this year than last, but Cincy doesn't project to score enough to make the Seahawks turn to the pass.
- Russell Wilson ($8,200) faces last season's 26th-ranked deep-ball pass defense after leading the league in efficiency on deep passes, but the game script sets up for him to fail to reach a high ceiling based on my sims.
- What pass volume there is to be had should go firstly to Tyler Lockett ($6,800), who checks out as the second-most likely wideout to hit three-times value on the main slate.
- As a heavy home favorite, Chris Carson ($6,600) is in a proverbial smash spot after fending off Rashaad Penny ($5,900) this offseason. Carson is slated for the seventh-most carries of the week (16.1) against last year's second-most-generous rush defense to running backs.

Core Plays
Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett

Secondary Plays
Tyler Boyd

Tournament Plays
D.K. Metcalf ($5,500), Jaron Brown ($4,500) Will Dissly ($4,000)

Indianapolis at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread:: LAC (-6.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 63%)
Over/Under: 45.0 (% of Money on the Over: 81%)

The Indianapolis Colts' fastest-in-the-NFL pace is certain to fall off with Jacoby Brissett ($6,000) under center, and the Los Angeles Chargers killed the clock when they could last year, ranking 32nd in seconds per play and in adjusted seconds per play. The 19.25-point implied total isn't enough to avoid the Colts entirely, but it's close.

Indianapolis Offense Notes
- Brissett mustered 6.6 yards per attempt and -0.04 Passing NEP per drop back (compared to the league average of 0.12) in 2017 when he started 15 games. LA ranked sixth in adjusted pass defense last season.
- No wideout over $7,000 projected for a boom game (three-times value) less often than T.Y. Hilton ($7,700), who didn't get the fortune of a price discount. Hilton averaged 8.9 yards per target from Brissett in 2017, scoring 4 times on 102 targets.
- Eric Ebron ($5,900) and Jack Doyle ($5,400) figure to cannibalize each other and are up against last year's second-best tight end defense while owning an implied total on the wrong side of 20. They, like Hilton, grade out as awful bets to have a ceiling.
- Marlon Mack ($6,900) is suffering from being overpriced, too. The Chargers were 6th in adjusted rush defense last season but a beatable bottom-12 in both Rushing and Target Success Rate allowed to backs.

LA Chargers Offense Notes
- We project about a 17-14 split in opportunities for Austin Ekeler ($6,400) and Justin Jackson ($5,900), with the differentiation in targets (4.7 for Ekeler and 1.8 for Jackson). Both are imminently playable in what should be positive game script.
- LA threw at the 11th-highest adjusted rate last year, and the pass game could go overlooked while we all target the running backs, though Philip Rivers ($7,500) doesn't particularly stand out for DFS purposes.
- Keenan Allen ($7,700) will look to continue last year's post-bye tear (16.5 FanDuel points per game) and build on the 33.3% target share he had in that split. Indy ranked 20th against the pass last season.
- Mike Williams ($6,400) never once hit 100 yards last year and only surpassed 100 air yards in Week 3, but he ranks 10th in projected receiving touchdowns on the week (0.49).
- The Colts ranked 30th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends last season, giving Hunter Henry ($6,100) a great comeback chance. He's the best tight end play below $7,000 on the slate.

Core Plays
Hunter Henry

Secondary Plays
Justin Jackson, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams

Tournament Plays
T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack

New York Giants at Dallas

Spread:: DAL (-7) (% of Money on the Favorite: 58%)
Over/Under: 45.0 (% of Money on the Over: 20%)

Another NFC East divisional matchup, the Dallas Cowboys have Ezekiel Elliott ($9,100) back in the fold for Week 1 after his new contract. The New York Giants have a quarterback controversy on their hands, and face a looming negative game script while a lot of the money is on the under.

New York Offense Notes
- Saquon Barkley's ($9,200) lone single-digit fantasy outing came without Beckham in Week 15 last year, a sample size too small for any real conclusions. Dallas did rank third against the rush last season, but he averaged 20.0 FanDuel points per game in those, given his volume. He's a top-three running back play.
- Eli Manning ($6,400) showed crazy reverse splits on the road (0.24 Passing NEP per drop back and 8.4 yards per attempt) compared to at home (-0.06, 6.6), but he has to be on a short leash with Daniel Jones breathing down his neck.
- Sterling Shepard ($6,000) commanded 22.1% of the team's targets and 38.8% of their air yards without Odell Beckham in the lineup and should be in the mix for double-digit targets, albeit on a low-quality offense, without Golden Tate. Still, no wideout hit four-times value as often as Shepard at his modest tag and high volume expectation.
- Evan Engram ($6,400) also saw a 22.1% target share with a lowly 5.5-yard average depth of target without Beckham. Dallas ranked 18th in Target Success Rate to tight ends last year, and Engram averaged 7.5 targets and 74.0 yards (on just 34.5 air yards) against them last year.

Dallas Offense Notes
- As a seven-point home favorite, Ezekiel Elliott ($9,100) has the preferred script to Barkley, but there are reports that he'll play only 20 to 25 snaps. Via FantasyData, Elliott was utilized on 44.7% of his snaps last year. That'd put him in the 8- to 12-touch range if the snap cap is real.
- Dak Prescott ($7,500) was kept in check in Week 2 against the Giants last year (14.9 FanDuel points, 0.07 Passing NEP per drop back) despite 45 rushing yards but blew up in Week 17 (33.5 FanDuel Points, 0.47 Passing NEP per drop back) -- though no rushing yards on 4 carries.
- Amari Cooper ($7,500) commanded 24.3% of the team's targets and 32.9% of their air yards after the trade last season but turned 11 targets and 138 air yards in Week 17 into just 31 yards overall. It's a buy-in spot here.
- Second-year wideout Michael Gallup ($5,600) most recently went for 119 yards in the playoffs against the Rams and boasted a strong 13.9-yard average depth of target last season, keeping him in play in tournament stacks.

Core Plays
Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard

Secondary Plays
Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Evan Engram, Dak Prescott

Tournament Plays
Michael Gallup

Detroit at Arizona

Spread: DET (-2.5) (% of Money on the Favorite: 83%)
Over/Under: 46.5 (% of Money on the Over: 27%)

One of the better fantasy games on the slate features two teams in the bottom-six of our power rankings. The Detroit Lions ranked 29th in adjusted pace last season, preferring to kill plays and run the ball (though they were a solid 13th in pass rate over expectation). The Arizona Cardinals, on the other hand, should operate as one of the fastest teams in football -- if not the fastest.

Detroit Offense Notes
- This is about as good a spot as it can get for Matthew Stafford ($6,600), who faces a secondary that ranked eighth in adjusted pass defense last season but is a completely different unit on the back-end while Patrick Peterson serves a suspension. He's shaping up as my favorite ceiling play among passers below $7,000.
- Kenny Golladay ($6,900) led all wide receivers in air yards market share (56%) after the team cut ties with Golden Tate and Marvin Jones ($6,100) got hurt, starting in Week 10.
- Jones and his 14.6-yard average target depth is cheaper exposure against a beatable secondary.
- Kerryon Johnson ($7,000) keeps popping in the simulations as a back with high ceiling probability for his price, and his receiving work against last year's 31st-ranked defense out of the backfield should be stable after the team parted ways with Theo Riddick.

Arizona Offense Notes
- We'll get our first glimpse of Kyler Murray ($7,300), our third-ranked quarterback value, after he posted 5.4 yards per attempt in the preseason. It's a great spot to debut, as the Lions ranked 27th against the pass last season and still project as a bottom-half pass defense.
- The David Johnson ($8,100) bounce-back campaign begins this weekend, and he finds himself atop the second pricing tier of running backs. Volume carried him last year, and the overall play volume should be there again. He's a borderline core play.
- The arrival of Kliff Kingsbury should do wonders for Christian Kirk ($6,000) and Larry Fitzgerald ($5,900), as Kirk only once surpassed 83 air yards (102 in Week 7) and Fitzgerald wasn't much better downfield for his extra volume. The simulations like the ceiling for Kirk, relative to his price.

Core Plays
Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson

Secondary Plays
David Johnson, Marvin Jones, Kyler Murray

Tournament Plays
Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald

San Francisco at Tampa Bay

Spread: TB (-1) (% of Money on the Favorite: 68%)
Over/Under: 50.5 (% of Money on the Over: 91%)

Our first view of Bruce Arians' Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the regular season is nigh. Tampa already ranked 13th in adjusted pace last season (and 4th by FootballOutsiders' metrics) and 9th in pass rate versus expectation (10th in one-score games, via SharpFootballStats). The San Francisco 49ers ranked top-11 in both versions of adjusted pace and now have an ostensible upgrade at quarterback. This is a shootout in the making.

San Francisco Offense Notes
- In his most recent extended action in 2017, Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,200) led the NFL in Passing NEP per drop back and Passing Success Rate. The Bucs ranked 28th in adjusted pass defense last season and should be in the running for the bottom-five again. He'll be the lower-owned passer in this matchup, which matters for tournament leverage.
- We simply can't know how the running back snaps and opportunities are divided between Tevin Coleman ($6,300) and Matt Breida ($5,400), as Breida is actually listed as the starter. Simulating this one out suggests that Breida's cheaper tag puts him in the better spot to outperform his salary, as he's top-four at the position frequency of hitting four-times value.
- George Kittle ($7,300) pops as the best ceiling and floor play at tight end, even with his price tag being what it is. Tampa was 26th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends last year.
- Three wide receivers are in play for San Francisco, which makes it tough to pick a stack: Dante Pettis ($6,500) projects for the best volume, Marquise Goodwin ($5,400) should see the most deep looks, and Deebo Samuel ($5,200) is the obvious pivot.

Tampa Bay Offense Notes
- In 2018, Jameis Winston ($7,500) averaged an above-average 0.18 Passing NEP per drop back and 51.9% Passing Success Rate. The Niners were 29th in adjusted pass defense and lack the upgrades needed to fix that. He's shaping up as an elite DFS play.
- Winston spread the ball around last year, giving Mike Evans ($7,900) 21.7% of his targets, Adam Humphries 20.9%, and Chris Godwin ($6,900) 15.9%. Humphries -- and DeSean Jackson (9.5%) -- is out of the picture.
- Tight ends Cameron Brate ($4,800) and O.J. Howard ($6,500) received 9.4% and 4.8% of the targets from Winston, respectively. Howard saw 18 targets from Winston last year.

Core Plays
Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, George Kittle

Secondary Plays
O.J. Howard, Chris Godwin

Tournament Plays
Dante Pettis, Marquise Goodwin