FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 1 Thursday Night
The NFL season kicks off Thursday night with a rivalry matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears at Soldier Field.
The Bears are 3.0-point favorites in a game with a 46.5-point total. Our models like Chicago a little more than oddsmakers do, forecasting the Bears to win by a score of 27.04-21.06.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears ($13,500)
This is a pretty nice spot for the Bears' offense as our models have Green Bay's defense ranked fifth-worst against the pass and 11th-worst overall, and our projections have Trubisky as the top player in this game, pegging him to total 19.6 FanDuel points -- 0.4 more than Aaron Rodgers, who has gone without a passing score in his last two visits to Chicago.
Trubisky has been a better fantasy producer at home throughout his career. In 14 games at Soldier Field, he's averaging 212.7 passing yards and 32.1 rushing yards per game with 23 passing touchdowns -- compared to 203.2 passing yards and 18.3 rushing yards per game with eight passing tuddies in 12 road contests.
The Packers' run D is the strength of their defense -- it's a top-10 rush defense, per our numbers -- so Chicago may have to be more pass-heavy than usual.
With Trubisky having more than 40 rushing yards in five games last year, his legs raise his floor while also giving him enticing upside on a single-game slate. If you're building a lineup under the assumption of a Bears win, he's a great guy to lock in.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers ($15,000)
On the road against one of the elite defenses in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers isn't in a good spot -- that much is obvious. But the matchup coupled with his slate-high salary could push people off him, making him a possible contrarian MVP play.
As we just mentioned, Rodgers hasn't been good at Soldier Field in recent years, but he's more than capable of shredding any defense on his day. And even though 2018 was underwhelming by Rodgers' standards, he still had 25 passing touchdowns, two picks and averaged 277.6 passing yards per game. He's good.
If you roster Rodgers, you could just go all out and build a lineup with the idea of Green Bay winning, which brings Davante Adams ($14,500) in to play. We have Adams as the highest-projected non-quarterback.
David Montgomery, RB, Bears ($12,500)
I don't know what the backfield split is going to look like for the Bears, but it stands to reason that a positive game script -- we have Chicago winning by nearly six points -- would benefit Montgomery more so than Tarik Cohen ($12,000).
Chicago spent a third-round pick on Montgomery, trading up to nab him, and they are reportedly "in love" with him, though I've been told there's a thin line between love and hate. As the presumed starting running back on a home favorite, Montgomery could have a big night.
Anthony Miller, WR, Bears ($9,000)
Miller is expected to play opposite Allen Robinson ($12,500), and if Trey Burton (groin) can't go, the second-year wideout could see a decent amount of targets in this one.
A second-round pick in 2018, Miller had a fairly quiet rookie year, totaling just 33 catches for 423 yards. He did score seven times, though, and saw at least six targets in four straight games in the middle of the campaign before falling off as the season progressed.
Geronimo Allison, WR, Packers ($9,500)
In season-long formats, drafters were pretty much split this year on Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,000). It'll be interesting to see which one of them ends up taking over the number-two receiver role for Green Bay, but I like betting on Allison on this single-game slate.
For one, Allison has shown big-play prowess in his career, averaging 13.8 yards per grab, and one big play can change the entire slate tonight. When he was healthy in 2018, Allison played pretty well, hauling in 20 of 30 targets for 15.2 yards per catch over five games.
One of his best performances of the year came against the Bears in last season's opener as he went for five receptions, 69 yards and a tuddie.
