NFL
Can Tony Gonzalez Be Replaced in Atlanta?
With Tony Gonzalez now retired, is there anyone on the Falcons roster that can fill his shoes?

If it weren't for the nuclear meltdown that took place in Houston last season, the Atlanta Falcons’ disastrous campaign would have garnered a lot more publicity. In truth, the only difference between the two teams is that the Texans lost 13 consecutive games, while the Falcons’ 12 losses were spread out evenly over the length of the season.

No matter how you spin it, Atlanta fell far short of reaching the high expectations placed upon them before the season started.

The Falcons were largely doomed by a porous defense that surrendered 27 or more points 9 different times last season. Injuries also played a huge role, as but there are still lingering questions about his recovery from foot surgery. Roddy White appears to have recovered from his high-ankle sprain, but will turn 33 this November.

If both Jones and White do start the season healthy, it’s safe to assume they'll both see an increase in targets. But for the Falcons offense to remain productive, it would be wise for them to find a third option to help alleviate the pressure on the top two.

Is there a tight end on the Falcons roster capable of becoming this third option? Or is a third wide receiver the answer?

The Remaining Tight Ends

The names found on the Falcons projected 2014 depth chart at tight end look more like a list of professional wrestlers than professional football players.

he did manage to post very consistent production.

Not only does his 2103 stat line appeal to box-score watchers, but our advanced metrics placed him among some of the top NFL receivers. In parenthesis below are Douglas’s ranks among the 22 receivers who had at least 75 receptions in 2013.

Reception NEPReception NEP per TargetSuccess RateCatch Rate
Harry Douglas (2013)80.68 (20th)0.61 (18th)84.71% (16th)64.39% (9th)

While Douglas ranks in the bottom-third of nearly every category, his 64.39% catch rate did rank ninth, ahead of the ability to catch the football out of the backfield over his 10-year career. And if rookie running back he should see his fair share of targets as well.

But if the Falcons do run three-receiver sets more consistently, as they have been discussing this off-season, look for Harry Douglas to thrive in Gonzalez's absence and find open space underneath the deep coverage afforded to both Jones and White.

While he’s not guaranteed to match his 85 catches from last season, and although he wasn't terribly efficient with his given volume last season, Douglas should see around the same amount of targets in an offense that will throw the ball a ton.

Is Douglas the “replacement” for Tony Gonzalez? No. But can he be a big piece of the puzzle? Absolutely.

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