NFL
Tim Wright Is Poised to Prove Everyone Wrong Yet Again
From undrafted free agent to top rookie right end, is Tim Wright still not getting the respect he deserves?

he claimed to have walked away with valuable knowledge about coaching the position.

Rodgers, like Wright, was a bulked-up receiver who transitioned into being a versatile tight end who presented mismatches over the middle. But Rodgers dealt with injuries and fluctuating levels of fitness during his time under Tedford, and would only spend one relevant year with his head coach before he was fired after the 2012 season.

Fast forward to 2014, and the first thing the Buccaneers did for their new offensive coach was rush into the free agent market and draft and get him a veteran tight end in Myers and a dynamic rookie prospect in Seferian-Jenkins. But it's Wright who represents the closest thing he has to his former understudy in Rodgers.

Should Tedford use anything he learned from the New England coach, he would use the standard "Gronk and Hernandez" model for tight ends. This means one Rob Gronkowski-type of player, who lines up on the line of scrimmage and is a blocker and a receiver, and one Aaron Hernandez-type who can move around the formation and be more versatile and more of a matchup problem for defenses.

Myers is better suited to the Gronkowski role, and while Seferian-Jenkins can do either, his size and blocking ability make him a very intriguing option as the inline tight end. Wright, as a converted wideout, is the perfect fit for the more fluid, moving Hernandez role.

But why should he be given an opportunity ahead of his two teammates? How can he ascend into any kind of fantasy relevance? Let's take a look at the numbers.

The Right Man for the Job

Last season, Tim Wright had the second-most productive campaign by a rookie tight end since 2008, bested only by John Carlson five years earlier. In this case, production refers to our Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which measures the impact a player has on passes that he catches.

But even when considering Wright on a per-target basis, there's plenty to be positive about. Wright finished ahead of Tony Gonzalez and Jordan Cameron in our Reception NEP per target statistic last year, and among tight ends with 50 or more receptions, he finished fourth out of 14 in that particular category.

Both his overall production and per-target efficiency trump the output of Myers, who saw the same amount of targets as Wright, but did decidedly less with them. So even if Myers and Wright are fighting for time at the same position in training camp, our numbers say that Wright should be the victor based on being a more productive and efficient player.

But what about Seferian-Jenkins? The monster of an athlete from Washington was a high second round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, and has physical tools that resemble those of the aforementioned Gronkowski. Isn't he the biggest threat to Wright's time on the field, and his production as a fantasy player?

In my research on rookie tight ends in recent seasons, I found that it's difficult to see what predicts a strong rookie season from a tight end apart from opportunity to play, and for the man known as ASJ, that opportunity is clouded at best. The average rookie tight end finished outside of the top 20 in most of our metrics, meaning it would be an uphill battle for Seferian-Jenkins to be more relevant than his sophomore competition in Wright.

Playing With House Money

Despite the fact that Wright is better than Myers and more experienced than Seferian-Jenkins, there are no guarantees that the second-year tight end will see the field and produce on a high level this year. Despite one of the best rookie tight end seasons in NFL history, his role could be reduced simply by not meshing with a new offensive coordinator.

And if he were being taken early in fantasy drafts, as his rookie teammate ASJ is at the moment, that would be serious cause for concern. But he's not, as Wright is barely being drafted at all in even the deepest of fantasy formats so far this summer.

So by stashing Wright at the end of your bench, or having a quick trigger finger to snag him during training camp when the first bit of positive news comes out about him, you're risking nothing to possibly gain a top-10 tight end. Similar to Garrett Graham, who is a move tight end with competition to deal with in camp this fall, Wright has upside far beyond his current draft position.

Rather than hoping for an exception to the rule by taking Seferian-Jenkins early in your fantasy draft, or settling for the mediocre and unimpressive Myers, Tim Wright should be the Tampa Bay tight end you target in your fantasy league this year. He's cheaper, more proven, and has a history of proving everyone wrong.

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