3 NFL Prop Bets to Target in Week 16
With seasonal leagues winding down, fantasy enthusiasts can stay involved in the NFL action through the FanDuel SportsBook. FanDuel provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.
Player props closely mirror the game of fantasy football, allowing people to stay involved in a familiar way. With playoff implications in a slew of games this weekend, here are a few standout player props.
Patrick Mahomes Over 305.5 Passing Yards (-108)
Mahomes has surpassed 300 passing yards in 10 of 13 games this season -- never throwing for less than 243 yards. An absolute wizard with the ball in his hands, Mahomes faces a Seattle defense that ranks 15th against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, and has allowed at least 250 yards passing in three of their last four games. This includes a complete meltdown against the San Francisco 49ers, a game in which Nick Mullens erupted for 414 passing yards.
Our projections love Mahomes this week, pegging him for 325.98 passing yards and giving him 20 yards on value on his player prop. With the highest over/under on the board (54.0), the Kansas City Chiefs are implied for a huge 28.25 points, also indicating Mahomes should be able to move the ball. With such stark value, Mahomes looks like a lock with this line.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 95.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
Coming off a "pedestrian" 87-yard performance, Ezekiel Elliott comes in at a value this week, with a rushing prop of 95.5 yards. A $100 bet in this spot nets $92.59.
Since the Dallas Cowboys' Week 8 bye, Elliott has at least 17 carries in every game, averaging 22 carries per game in that span. Elliott and the Cowboys also have the benefit of playing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense that ranks 25th against the run, per our metrics. Over the last four weeks, this Tampa Bay D has allowed the third-most rushing yards to opposing backs (504).
With Dallas a 7.5-point home favorite, Elliott should have game script working in his favor. Our projections have Elliott slated for 21.50 rushing attempts and 103.55 rushing yards, giving him roughly 8 yards of value. In this smash spot, Elliott's value cannot be faded.
Tyreek Hill Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
With Mahomes having a good chance to best 300 yards against Seattle, Tyreek Hill should be the primary beneficiary. A $100 bet on Hill topping 75.5 receiving yards nets $92.59.
Noted above, Seattle's middling pass defense has allowed productive receiving lines from Dante Pettis (129 and 83 yards) and Stefon Diggs (76 yards) in the last four weeks, creating an avenue for Hill's success. The Chiefs will also be playing without Sammy Watkins, opening additional opportunities for Hill. Tyreek has a 23% target share and 40% air yards share with Watkins out of the lineup.
Lastly, our projections absolutely love Hill in this spot, projecting him for 96.95 receiving yards, more than 20 yards above his player prop. Coming in at an absurd value, Hill's receiving yards prop is a great bet to zero in on this weekend.