Fantasy Football: The Report, Week 16

What is The Report? It's a comprehensive, statistical look at how teams and players are functioning offensively, with notes as to what it all means for the fantasy football future. Each week, The Report will feature charts on team play-calling tendencies, player usage close to the end zone, deep ball rates, and so much more. With added commentary, the purpose is to not only hand you information, but provide actionable information to crush both season-long and daily fantasy football.

Let's dig into Week 16's report.

Team Play-Calling

Team Pass Att Rush Att Ratio +/-6 Ratio RZ Plays RZ Ratio GL Plays GL Ratio
ARI 430 313 1.37 1.13 80 1.22 16 0.78
ATL 546 300 1.82 1.96 119 1.70 36 1.57
BAL 510 465 1.10 1.07 152 0.85 31 0.72
BUF 432 417 1.04 0.98 102 0.65 21 0.62
CAR 476 354 1.34 1.42 127 0.92 40 0.67
CHI 457 403 1.13 1.23 125 1.36 31 1.07
CIN 500 317 1.58 1.66 113 1.46 34 1.00
CLE 494 369 1.34 1.33 97 1.02 31 0.55
DAL 458 393 1.17 1.27 126 1.14 34 0.79
DEN 503 344 1.46 1.60 110 1.20 31 1.07
DET 498 343 1.45 1.47 126 1.21 26 0.53
GB 545 300 1.82 1.81 105 1.92 18 2.00
HOU 431 420 1.03 1.18 139 1.48 40 1.67
IND 562 356 1.58 1.80 148 1.47 41 1.56
JAX 484 368 1.32 1.09 99 1.15 25 0.56
KC 516 341 1.51 1.77 163 1.55 49 0.69
LAC 451 353 1.28 1.35 127 1.27 28 1.00
LAR 516 376 1.37 1.49 181 1.10 37 0.54
MIA 401 328 1.22 1.22 72 1.12 8 3.00
MIN 545 314 1.74 1.63 109 1.87 24 1.67
NE 516 401 1.29 1.49 165 1.04 47 0.62
NO 457 425 1.08 1.30 192 0.94 61 0.69
NYG 509 300 1.70 1.52 137 1.54 39 1.29
NYJ 461 366 1.26 1.23 98 1.04 20 0.67
OAK 498 328 1.52 1.37 128 1.10 32 0.68
PHI 515 342 1.51 1.52 144 1.12 28 0.87
PIT 594 307 1.93 1.92 130 1.71 41 0.78
SEA 377 457 0.82 0.85 129 0.95 30 0.76
SF 461 386 1.19 1.20 134 1.00 34 0.79
TB 542 345 1.57 1.41 147 1.30 36 1.00
TEN 383 411 0.93 1.10 132 0.78 37 0.37
WAS 458 368 1.24 1.29 104 0.96 21 0.40

The Ravens keep running. In the chart, you can see that they've got an overall pass-to-rush attempt ratio of 1.10, which is one of the lower marks in the league. But since Lamar Jackson took over, their ratio has actually been 0.51. They've been running the ball twice as much as they've been throwing it. That's by far the most run-heavy approach in the league -- Seattle has a 0.82 pass-to-rush attempt rate, and they're the least pass-friendly team in football. All of this has essentially ruined the fantasy value for Baltimore pass-catchers.

Cody Kessler hasn't been the answer in Jacksonville. With Kessler under center over the team's last three games, the Jags have averaged fewer than 10 points per contest, and their yards per drive rate has dipped by over eight yards. That makes the Dolphins a very, very viable streamer this week.

The Falcons have passed the Steelers in pass-to-rush ratio in neutral game scripts, and we may see a pass-friendly approach this weekend at Carolina. Atlanta's down to Tevin Coleman as their only relevant, healthy back, and while the Panthers looked fine against the Saints on Thursday night, they've struggled against the pass this year.

Schedule-Adjusted Net Expected Points

To learn more about numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, check out the glossary. (Note: Negative figures for defense are good.)

Team Adj NEP Adj Pass NEP Adj Rush NEP Adj D NEP Adj D Pass NEP Adj D Rush NEP
ARI -124.21 -88.85 -26.69 60.82 36.25 36.34
ATL 129.97 122.94 -5.01 166.81 115.36 50.95
BAL 71.85 25.39 28.48 -25.35 -15.77 -13.46
BUF -47.87 -74.82 18.88 33.97 23.28 1.12
CAR 101.01 55.94 51.67 105.84 90.30 16.20
CHI 82.43 50.71 13.22 -34.73 1.67 -30.94
CIN 50.97 41.99 0.41 103.16 76.06 34.97
CLE 4.05 -6.77 5.55 -5.87 2.14 8.98
DAL 48.10 24.16 36.40 38.68 50.55 -19.41
DEN 69.13 45.92 29.86 29.19 32.39 9.96
DET 58.12 42.82 8.56 143.68 110.87 22.56
GB 120.56 84.48 45.78 114.43 90.20 24.00
HOU 102.12 90.61 8.37 55.02 70.06 -27.87
IND 136.25 112.41 22.02 87.35 78.45 2.51
JAX -31.04 -17.58 3.27 47.73 22.48 13.01
KC 255.12 213.34 34.12 134.45 60.43 52.88
LAC 181.23 129.92 57.17 41.71 22.73 30.84
LAR 183.04 155.52 31.34 51.32 26.07 20.36
MIA 28.86 12.49 18.04 161.28 100.74 47.50
MIN 34.13 56.23 -16.80 -5.28 -5.87 -2.68
NE 176.47 141.27 29.40 81.93 59.65 28.70
NO 202.63 158.69 25.26 56.32 44.94 -4.45
NYG 54.78 44.64 13.23 96.66 60.51 35.30
NYJ -42.00 -27.35 2.44 87.59 66.76 27.37
OAK 15.48 48.70 -17.09 148.80 109.39 54.30
PHI 81.48 75.64 3.24 79.42 72.08 19.67
PIT 154.96 131.64 19.79 62.19 54.69 10.68
SEA 126.16 84.06 51.68 71.11 55.89 -5.82
SF 22.75 28.40 -16.28 118.34 97.36 10.52
TB 104.50 101.84 0.80 130.28 94.64 33.41
TEN 60.20 36.30 27.83 62.37 59.48 18.97
WAS -2.55 -17.66 28.45 74.14 37.48 32.22

Not much has changed in the Net Expected Points chart week over week. The Falcons now own numberFire's worst-rated secondary, while Baltimore is pretty far in front of the pack. Meanwhile, Chicago and Houston have been strong against the run. That makes me nervous about starting any 49ers or Eagles back this week.

Team Pass Defense Splits

The chart below displays the raw number of yards and the percentage of yards allowed by pass defense to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

The top quarterback streamer this week may be Nick Foles. Part of that is because ownership percentages continue to be very flat at the position, limiting our true streaming options, but Foles is also in a low-key good matchup. The Texans are average against quarterbacks in fantasy points against, but they've only faced one quarterback this season who ranks in the top-10 in points per game at the position. That's Andrew Luck, who scored 35.7 and 23.6 fantasy points against the Texans in his two outings.

Meanwhile, as noted above, Houston can stop the run well. That may force the Eagles to throw a bit more. And that's not necessarily a bad thing -- one matchup that Philly could exploit is at tight end, as 23.6% of the Texans' receiving yards allowed have gone to tight ends this year, the ninth-highest rate in the league.

I'm intrigued by Kenneth Dixon this week. While Gus Edwards has been out-touching him in the Ravens backfield, Dixon actually played more snaps than Edwards in Week 16. Dixon's snap rate has now risen from 21% two weeks ago all the way to 52% this past weekend. And he's a more capable pass-catcher, which could be big against the Chargers -- no team has allowed a higher percentage of receiving yards to running backs this year. We saw that in action last week versus Damien Williams.

Heading into last week, the Saints were first in the league in percentage of receiving yards allowed going to wide receivers. This week, that's changed. After getting torched by DeAndre Hopkins, the Jets have become arguably the best matchup for wide receivers, which is good news for those of you needing some Davante Adams help in your fantasy championship.

Evan Engram had a pretty big Week 15 with 8 catches on 12 targets, and his matchup this week is nice against Indy. The Colts have seen 28.8% of their receiving yards go to tight ends, which is the second-highest rate in the league. And no team has allowed more receiving yards to the position.

If you need a tight end streamer, Matt LaCosse could be it. The Raiders have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this year, and 28.9% of their passing yards allowed have gone to tight ends, marking the top rate in the league. LaCosse saw six targets in Week 15, and according to Pro Football Focus, he ran 32 routes, seventh-most at the position last week. The position is a dumpster fire, but the matchup is there for LaCosse.

Team Directional Rushing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

According to numberFire's expected points model, no team has allowed a higher Success Rate (percentage of positive expected point plays) to running backs through the air than Cleveland. The Bengals are banged up offensively, but Joe Mixon continues to see a ton of work -- he's carried the ball 53 times over the last two weeks -- and he's got the receiving upside in this matchup to come through with a big performance.

On the other side of that matchup is Nick Chubb, who should have zero trouble this week running against the Bengals. Not only are the Browns favorites, which could generate a nice positive game script, but Cincy's given up the second-highest Success Rate to opposing backs this year on the ground. And only two teams -- Kansas City and Oakland -- have been less efficient at stopping the run on a per-rush basis.

You've got to love Marlon Mack's spot this week. Prior to trading Damon Harrison, the Giants were allowing 3.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Since, that number's jumped to 4.5, and the G-Men have surrendered five top-10 running back performances in seven games played. As home favorites, the Colts should see a positive script, benefiting Mack tremendously.

Running Back Usage

PlayerAttRush %TargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ AttRZ TargetsGL Att
Todd Gurley25668.09%8115.70%86%82.9%641922
Christian McCaffrey19454.80%11023.11%97.7%100%391414
Saquon Barkley22374.33%10620.83%82.6%100%401414
Alvin Kamara18744.00%9921.66%66.1%63.5%482514
Ezekiel Elliott28672.77%8919.43%88.9%88.4%371610
James Conner20165.47%6811.45%70.7%N/A34717
Melvin Gordon15343.34%6013.30%54.3%N/A20133
James White8220.45%11422.09%55.7%40.3%18206
Kareem Hunt18153.08%356.78%64.2%N/A27911
Joe Mixon20765.30%5210.40%63.3%65%31813
David Johnson23173.80%6715.58%79.7%49.3%2699
Tarik Cohen8821.84%8719.04%47%63.3%12141
Phillip Lindsay18252.91%458.95%46.6%53.4%2557
Kenyan Drake10331.40%6315.71%57.1%52.8%1271
Nick Chubb16444.44%234.66%34.6%59.7%2248
Tevin Coleman14949.67%427.69%56.1%50.7%16106
Adrian Peterson22160.05%245.24%47.2%54.4%2928
Derrick Henry17843.31%164.18%38.8%70%39115
T.J. Yeldon10428.26%7816.12%54.8%34.6%1252
Aaron Jones13344.33%356.42%47.5%10.3%1834
Lamar Miller19345.95%337.66%58.3%20.8%2927
Matt Breida14938.60%306.51%37.9%72.6%2346
Chris Carson20143.98%236.10%43.9%52%32312
Austin Ekeler9827.76%5211.53%38.1%N/A1554
Dion Lewis15236.98%5915.40%62.8%32.9%2285
Marlon Mack15844.38%203.56%51.4%61.1%28210
Isaiah Crowell14339.07%286.07%41.1%N/A1613
Nyheim Hines8223.03%7112.63%46.7%40.3%2172
Jordan Howard21653.60%224.81%57.6%56.7%30311
Kerryon Johnson11834.40%397.83%37.4%N/A1762
Jalen Richard4814.63%7414.86%40.7%50.8%741
Peyton Barber20258.55%254.61%54.8%64%35513
Dalvin Cook10633.76%417.52%58.8%60.9%1122
Latavius Murray12941.08%244.40%47.4%39.1%1824
Mark Ingram12228.71%235.03%45.8%44.6%22112
Mike Davis9821.44%3810.08%38.1%44%1713
Sony Michel17744.14%112.13%30.4%37.1%38112
Duke Johnson349.21%5210.53%40.5%38.8%460
LeSean McCoy14534.77%409.26%49.1%0%1914
Theo Riddick339.62%6913.86%41.9%43.9%7100
Alex Collins11424.52%214.12%37.8%N/A2156
Leonard Fournette11531.25%214.34%42.8%51.9%19210
Frank Gore15647.56%163.99%40.7%13.2%1331
Wendell Smallwood7421.64%275.24%29.9%31.2%1352
Ito Smith9030.00%325.86%33.2%43.3%2144
Javorius Allen418.82%438.43%29.6%3.9%1166
Doug Martin13039.63%204.02%31.1%45.8%26211
Giovani Bernard5316.72%418.20%41.3%37.5%813
Alfred Blue14334.05%194.41%42.9%77.4%1434
Jamaal Williams9832.67%295.32%42.9%86.8%931
Corey Clement6819.88%254.85%29.9%N/A1621
Royce Freeman10630.81%91.79%25.8%24.7%1704
LeGarrette Blount13238.48%112.21%26.1%19.3%25012
Chris Thompson3710.05%4610.04%30.5%42.6%342
Marshawn Lynch9027.44%204.02%50.4%N/A1653
Spencer Ware5114.96%234.46%26.5%N/A1225
Devontae Booker267.56%397.75%27.7%20.5%250
Gus Edwards11123.87%10.20%35.1%42.9%1301
Josh Adams9828.65%91.75%29.3%37.5%1605

With Aaron Jones sidelined early against Chicago on Sunday, Jamaal Williams handled every single running back carry while playing almost 87% of the team's snaps. If he's on your waiver wire, you've got to snatch him up this week, even if it's to block your opponent.

Instead of giving the ball to Kenyan Drake after Frank Gore was injured in Week 15, Miami opted to feature rookie Kalen Ballage. Drake only played about 53% of Miami's snaps on Sunday, and he was out-attempted 12 to 1 versus Ballage. We should probably assume Ballage will be featured against Jacksonville this week as a result.

For the first time since Week 3, Derrick Henry out-snapped Dion Lewis. No, that's not a typo. He (Henry) played 70% of the team's snaps, when his season high before Week 15 was 52%. It's now his backfield, and it should be: Henry has a 45.5% Success Rate this season, while Lewis' is at 31.6%.

Wide Receiver Usage

PlayerTargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ Targets< 10 TargetsGL Targets
Davante Adams15127.71%93.4%94.1%2882
DeAndre Hopkins13531.32%99.2%96.2%23159
Adam Thielen14526.61%96.6%91.3%1986
Tyreek Hill12123.45%87.2%88.3%1674
Julio Jones15227.84%79.5%47.8%1264
Michael Thomas12727.79%88.6%93.2%25127
Antonio Brown14925.08%95.2%95.3%2062
JuJu Smith-Schuster14123.74%85%93.8%27118
Mike Evans12022.14%84.4%90%1042
Keenan Allen12126.83%79.1%23%1574
Stefon Diggs13424.59%82%79.7%1564
Robert Woods12023.26%97%100%1183
Odell Beckham12424.36%80.2%N/A2085
Tyler Boyd10821.60%85.8%48.8%1031
Brandin Cooks10520.35%91.3%100%1462
T.Y. Hilton10618.86%76.6%56.9%15108
Amari Cooper91N/A79.1%78.3%1272
Emmanuel Sanders9819.48%84.3%N/A1153
Kenny Golladay10420.88%91.2%91.2%1363
Tyler Lockett6416.98%84.8%90.7%630
Jarvis Landry13226.72%87.6%85.1%1763
Calvin Ridley8215.02%61%65.7%732
Golden Tate10420.19%64.9%34.4%1172
Julian Edelman9217.83%88.8%93.5%19105
Corey Davis10026.11%89.2%92.9%1595
Mike Williams5712.64%63.5%89.2%1383
Adam Humphries8716.05%68.5%58%1264
Dede Westbrook8617.77%76.5%82.7%1150
Alshon Jeffery8215.92%83.1%100%1253
Larry Fitzgerald9421.86%91.6%95.7%1265
Sterling Shepard9117.88%91.2%100%1876
Demaryius Thomas8419.49%78.1%88.7%1143
A.J. Green7715.40%60.9%N/A1465
Chris Godwin8014.76%62.1%82%14103
DeSean Jackson7012.92%43.5%N/A510
D.J. Moore6714.08%65.7%98.3%521
Mohamed Sanu7613.92%78.7%89.6%522
Allen Robinson8618.82%76.4%76.7%1152
Josh Gordon7113.76%71.9%91.9%842
John Brown8817.25%65.4%62.3%1372
Taylor Gabriel8618.82%79.6%76.7%853
Cooper Kupp5610.85%72%N/A1270
Tyrell Williams6013.30%75.9%87.8%621
Willie Snead9318.24%68.1%76.6%700
Michael Crabtree9418.43%67.2%58.4%941
Jordy Nelson6613.25%80.4%96.6%741
Christian Kirk6815.81%79.1%N/A520
Kenny Stills5513.72%80.2%96.2%431
Robby Anderson7215.62%64.6%94.7%643
Nelson Agholor8416.31%90.2%98.4%942
Zay Jones8419.44%87.8%97.1%1442
Cole Beasley7516.38%65.2%63.8%942
Devin Funchess7515.76%67.1%19%1274
Donte Moncrief8216.94%77.8%76.9%753
Marvin Jones6212.45%72.8%N/A1161
Sammy Watkins5510.66%49.6%N/A1040
Antonio Callaway7014.17%69.7%73.1%743
Courtland Sutton7114.12%73.2%86.3%743
Danny Amendola7117.71%73.7%73.6%220
Doug Baldwin5614.85%74.4%81.3%1173

Robby Anderson hit his highest snap rate of the season on Sunday, and he's now seen 7, 7, and 11 targets over his last three games. The Packers have a bottom-10 secondary according to numberFire's expected points model, making Anderson a very viable option this week.

Nick Foles has much stronger numbers when targeting Alshon Jeffery compared to his other pass-catchers, including an 11.1 yards per attempt rate. When looking strictly at this 2018 season, Jeffery has two games where he's hit the 100-yard mark. One happened this past week with Foles, and the other was in an overtime game where he essentially played an extra quarter. Against a beatable Texans secondary, Jeffery is in a good spot this week and should be in your lineup.

Adam Thielen has struggled, at least when you compare his production to where he was at across the first half of the season. Since Week 8, Thielen has just one 100-yard game after starting the season with eight consecutive ones. What's happened? Well, it could be partially due to his work in the slot. Since Week 8, 51.8% of his snaps have come from the slot, and he's seen 23 of his 47 (48.9%) targets from that area of the field. That's all according to Pro Football Focus. From Weeks 1 through 8, that slot snap rate was 61.9%, and 59 of his 98 (60.2%) looks were in the slot. So Thielen's seeing fewer slot snaps and, in turn, he's also getting fewer targets. He's still someone you need to start, but that helps explain his "struggles".

Tight End Usage

PlayerTargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ Targets< 10 TargetsGL Targets
Travis Kelce13225.58%95.9%100%23115
Zach Ertz13626.41%93.1%92.2%2383
George Kittle11023.86%86.6%95.2%1274
Eric Ebron9917.62%58.1%52.8%2053
Jared Cook9318.67%75.4%88.1%15113
Austin Hooper8014.65%78%50.7%13105
Trey Burton6614.44%80.9%76.7%1273
Rob Gronkowski6712.98%79.4%100%820
O.J. Howard488.86%60.8%N/A742
Vance McDonald6310.61%54.9%35.9%832
Jordan Reed8418.34%56%N/A751
Jimmy Graham8215.05%74.6%69.1%1064
David Njoku7815.79%80.5%83.6%531
Kyle Rudolph6712.29%87.7%73.9%1274
Christopher Herndon469.98%52.4%69.3%500
C.J. Uzomah5811.60%83.8%86.2%532
Evan Engram509.82%53.8%69.2%622
Jesse James386.40%53.7%34.4%521
Cameron Brate427.75%45.2%82%1143
Mark Andrews438.43%34.9%37.7%731
Ben Watson418.97%48.5%43.2%964
Greg Olsen387.98%56.7%N/A633
Dallas Goedert387.38%46.1%60.9%622
Gerald Everett448.53%29.6%44.7%1061
Vernon Davis367.86%49%44.1%100
Ricky Seals-Jones6916.05%64.7%82.6%431
Antonio Gates398.65%35.5%56.8%874
Jeff Heuerman489.54%76.9%N/A1272
Jordan Thomas255.80%46.4%45.3%741
Jonnu Smith318.09%75.2%N/A552

Guys, O.J. Howard hasn't played football for a month, and he's still a top-10 fantasy tight end. That's how bad the position has been.

Since Week 11 -- which is when Geoff Swaim was injured -- Blake Jarwin has dominated the routes run at tight end for Dallas. According to Pro Football Focus, over the last four weeks, Jarwin's run 109 routes, when the next-closest Cowboys tight end has 55. That's led to back to back seven-target games for Jarwin.

Deep Ball Passing

Player15+ Yd Att15+ Yd Att %15+ Comp %15+ % of Tot Yds15+ Yd TD %
Ben Roethlisberger9716.72%39.18%28.51%40.00%
Andrew Luck8815.80%45.45%28.73%20.59%
Kirk Cousins7613.94%44.74%23.97%38.46%
Matt Ryan10118.77%43.56%28.63%23.33%
Aaron Rodgers11421.23%41.23%37.09%34.78%
Patrick Mahomes11021.32%48.18%34.16%22.22%
Tom Brady8917.35%43.82%28.25%33.33%
Jared Goff9919.34%46.46%30.52%25.93%
Eli Manning9218.33%46.74%32.15%16.67%
Case Keenum7114.17%40.85%27.06%33.33%
Derek Carr6813.77%44.12%24.15%21.05%
Matthew Stafford6914.05%49.28%28.69%26.32%
Cam Newton7515.92%40.00%20.09%20.83%
Dak Prescott6514.22%38.46%24.70%35.29%
Drew Brees7516.67%57.33%32.49%29.03%
Philip Rivers8318.57%55.42%33.54%29.03%
Deshaun Watson7116.51%50.70%27.95%25.00%
Baker Mayfield9924.32%45.45%38.96%33.33%
Carson Wentz6415.96%39.06%25.28%14.29%
Mitchell Trubisky8522.43%35.29%33.19%26.09%
Joe Flacco7018.47%34.29%25.72%16.67%
Russell Wilson7720.42%48.05%37.79%45.16%
Blake Bortles5615.18%37.50%24.49%30.77%
Andy Dalton6216.99%43.55%27.32%28.57%
Sam Darnold7019.94%41.43%33.39%35.71%
Josh Rosen6318.75%41.27%33.59%40.00%
Alex Smith6118.60%32.79%25.32%20.00%
Marcus Mariota5517.30%47.27%28.37%18.18%
Jameis Winston6522.03%41.54%29.90%21.43%
Josh Allen7630.04%31.58%42.99%66.67%
Ryan Fitzpatrick6526.42%53.85%44.13%35.29%
Ryan Tannehill4018.10%32.50%25.03%43.75%
Nick Mullens2411.82%54.17%21.09%20.00%
Jeff Driskel2518.80%24.00%17.81%25.00%
Lamar Jackson1612.90%37.50%22.74%20.00%
Cody Kessler1412.28%28.57%15.92%0.00%
Nick Foles2017.70%35.00%29.40%0.00%

Nick Mullens is a fun story, but he's getting a good bit of help from his teammates. He's throwing it deep on fewer than 12% of his passes, and just 21% of his yards have come on those types of throws. The conservative approach has worked, but it shows that he's still limited the offense overall.

Russell Wilson has had a really interesting season. He's been unbelievably efficient in a run-first offense, and while he's throwing it 15-plus air yards on 20.4% of his throws, he's getting the most out of those tosses. He ranks eighth in deep-ball rate, but he's fourth in percentage of yards coming from those tosses. It's just another example of Wilson getting the most of his throws this year.

Running Back Touchdown Regression

Regression analysis doesn't always have to be so complicated. As you'd expect, there's a decent correlation between yards gained and touchdowns scored. The regression analysis in The Report looks at running back and wide receiver yards gained, shows how many touchdowns they've scored, and then finds how many touchdowns they should have scored based on trends from the last seven NFL seasons.

PlayerRush YdsTDShould HaveDifferenceRec YdsTDShould HaveDifferenceTotal Difference
Todd Gurley1251178.378.6358042.541.4610.09
Alvin Kamara860125.766.2462742.741.267.50
Kareem Hunt82475.521.4837871.655.356.83
Melvin Gordon80295.373.6345341.982.025.65
James Conner909126.085.9246712.04-1.044.87
Alex Collins41172.754.2510510.460.544.79
Derrick Henry882115.905.107800.34-0.344.76
James White35442.371.6369963.062.944.57
Kenyan Drake46943.140.8639451.723.284.14
James Develin840.053.955900.26-0.263.69
Nick Chubb86085.762.2415020.661.343.59
Javorius Allen11030.742.2619620.861.143.41
Aaron Jones72884.873.1320610.900.103.23
Christian McCaffrey97976.550.4576863.362.643.09
Kapri Bibbs10130.682.3210210.450.552.88
Damien Williams10230.682.3211510.500.502.81
Marlon Mack75575.051.9510010.440.562.51
Saquon Barkley115597.731.2765442.861.142.41
Phillip Lindsay99196.632.3723011.01-0.012.36
Alfred Blue47323.17-1.1711600.51-0.51-1.67
Gus Edwards55023.68-1.68700.03-0.03-1.71
Jacquizz Rodgers10100.68-0.6824701.08-1.08-1.76
Bilal Powell34302.30-2.3011010.480.52-1.78
Marcus Murphy25001.67-1.672600.11-0.11-1.79
Lamar Miller91746.14-2.1416310.710.29-1.85
Jeffery Wilson23001.54-1.548700.38-0.38-1.92
Chris Ivory34012.28-1.2815900.70-0.70-1.97
LeSean McCoy47923.21-1.2121000.92-0.92-2.12
Ezekiel Elliott135069.04-3.0454332.380.62-2.41
Theo Riddick14901.00-1.0037701.65-1.65-2.65
Dion Lewis51213.43-2.4335711.56-0.56-2.99
Jalen Richard24701.65-1.6555002.41-2.41-4.06
Frank Gore72204.83-4.8312410.540.46-4.37

With Frank Gore's season now over, he's become just the 10th player in NFL history to rush for 700 or more yards without finding the end zone on the ground. Among the 11 instances of this happening (one player, Joe Washington, did it twice), Gore's 722 rushing yards ranks eighth on the list. It was truly an outlier season touchdown-wise for Gore.

Ezekiel Elliott has scored nine times this year, but he actually should have two to three more touchdowns. He's essentially the only elite running back who is underperforming in the touchdown column. Perhaps some positive regression hits this weekend in a plus matchup against Tampa Bay.

Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression

PlayerRec YdsTDShould HaveDifference
Antonio Brown1112136.676.33
Mike Williams59293.555.45
John Ross20661.244.76
Tyler Lockett80094.804.20
Davante Adams1315127.894.11
Jaron Brown15050.904.10
Calvin Ridley69984.193.81
Aldrick Robinson23151.393.61
Anthony Miller39962.393.61
Chris Conley28051.683.32
Tyreek Hill1304117.823.18
DeAndre Hopkins1321117.923.08
Kenny Stills52163.122.88
Cooper Kupp56663.392.61
David Moore42252.532.47
Dante Pettis44652.672.33
Marvin Jones50853.051.95
AJ Green69464.161.84
Marquise Goodwin36642.191.81
Curtis Samuel38142.281.72
Emmanuel Sanders86845.21-1.21
Kelvin Benjamin37112.22-1.22
Taywan Taylor39412.36-1.36
Chester Rogers39912.39-1.39
Equanimeous St. Brown23401.40-1.40
Michael Gallup40412.42-1.42
Taylor Gabriel59923.59-1.59
Martavis Bryant26601.60-1.60
Robert Woods110656.63-1.63
JuJu Smith-Schuster127467.64-1.64
Keelan Cole44612.67-1.67
Quincy Enunwa44912.69-1.69
Maurice Harris30401.82-1.82
Jarvis Landry82734.96-1.96
Danny Amendola50913.05-2.05
D.J. Moore68824.13-2.13
Nelson Agholor58013.48-2.48
Willie Snead62613.75-2.75
Mike Evans132857.96-2.96
Julio Jones151169.06-3.06
Brandin Cooks110736.64-3.64

Brandin Cooks has officially passed Julio Jones as the most unfortunate touchdown scorer at wide receiver this year.