3 Daily Fantasy Football Players to Avoid in Week 15
While numberFire provides a multitude of pieces and tools designed to uncover the optimal players to target in daily fantasy, an underrated aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who not to play. Avoiding players that are overpriced, locked in bad match-ups, or simply involved in projected low-scoring games can provide an edge towards creating the optimal lineup.
With that said, here are three players to consider fading in Week 15.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
FanDuel Price: $7,600
DraftKings Price: $5,800
Despite gaining steam as a solid fantasy play throughout the year, Josh Allen remains a risky fantasy proposition in Week 15.
To be fair, Allen has impressed since the Buffalo Bills' bye week, with two of three weeks over 200 passing yards and three of three with at least 99 rushing yards. However, Allen hit 200 passing yards only once in his six prior contests and never broke 40 yards rushing in that span, putting his recent success against the bottom-12 defenses of the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets in question.
This week, Allen faces a surprising stingy Detroit Lions defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks this season (62). According to our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Lions rank 19th in rush defense but 29th in pass defense, playing against Allen's strengths in the run game. Detroit has defended running backs well, too, allowing 83.7 yards per game over their last seven games, showing their stoutness against quarterback rushing might not be a small sample size trap.
Another reason to fade Allen is the projected game environment. This contest currently sits with the second-lowest over/under on the slate at 39 points. With Lamar Jackson ($7,700) and Dak Prescott ($7,300) in the same price range, Josh Allen looks like a confident fade, despite the public's sudden infatuation.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
Following the firing of head coach Mike McCarthy, Aaron Jones reclaimed his position as the Green Bay Packers' starting running back, logging 20 touches for 106 yards and a score this past week. However, headed into a tough matchup against the Chicago Bears, this looks like a stay-away situation for the second-year back.
Mentioned above, the Bears have shut down everything on the defensive side of the ball. Per our power rankings, this unit ranks first in overall defense, first in rush defense, and second in pass defense. They have also allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards (929) and a league-low three touchdowns to opposing backs.
Also working against Jones, the Bears enter this contest as home favorites. Bookmakers project the Bears to win this contest by six points, hurting Jones' fantasy outlook in negative game script. In the same price range, Joe Mixon ($7,800) and David Johnson ($7,400) provide direct pivots in better matchups off of Jones.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Slumping of late, Mike Evans looks like a fade again this week, despite a price drop to $7,300. Even without DeSean Jackson in the lineup the past two weeks, Evans has only averaged six targets and 67 receiving yards per game.
Perhaps the biggest problem for Evans this week, the Baltimore Ravens' have played excellent defense this season. They rank second in overall defense and number one in pass defense, according to our metrics. They have also allowed the third-fewest receiving yards this season (1,695), including 51 yards per game to opposing number one receivers.
Tampa Bay enters this game as 7.5-point, road underdogs, creating a potential challenge for the Bucs' offense as a whole. Importantly, Baltimore ranks second in the NFL in average time of possession, limiting the number of plays opposing offenses can run against them.
Matthew Gajewski is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matthew Gajewski also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mgajewski. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel